The deadline to sign extensions for players on the final year of their rookie contract was at midnight last night and many of the top players from the draft class will go into the 2016 offseason as restricted free agents.
One last minute deal got done right before the buzzer as the Raptors signed shooting guard/small forward Terrance Ross (the 8th pick of the 2012 NBA Draft) to a three-year $33 million extension.
Here is a list of the other players from the draft class who have already signed an extension and won’t enter restricted free agency this offseason:
Anthony Davis: Five-year, $145 million extension in July
Damian Lillard: Five-year, $120 million extension in July
Draymond Green (2nd Round Pick): Five-year, $85 million extension in July
Khris Middleton (2nd Round Pick): Five-year, $70 million extension in July
Michael Kidd Gilchrist: Four-year, $52 million extension in July
John Henson: Four-year, $45 million extension on October 2.
That means there plenty of talented young stars or valued pieces who will go into restricted free agency this offseason.
Guaranteed Max Players
-Andre Drummond
-Bradley Beal
There are only two guys from the 2012 NBA draft class who haven’t already signed extensions that are virtually guaranteed to get max contracts with the current teams this offseason and have a less than 5% chance of playing somewhere else in 2016.
Drummond has virtually averaged 12-12-2 in three seasons in Detroit, including 13 and 13 the past two season and through three games this season is averaging 18 and 16. With the added motivation and his increased role and room to roam and dominate the glass and paint with Greg Monroe gone Drummond should be in for a monster season and his first all-star appearance.
Beal has a down year last season averaging 15-3-3 as he struggled to recover from a foot injury that sidelined him the first 15-20 games of the season. He is set to breakout this season though and is my pick for most improved player. He has lived up to my preseason expectations through three games averaging 25-4-3 on 47% shooting.
Guys who can be signed to a max offer sheet
-Harrison Barnes
-Terrance Jones
Barnes flashes his top notch traditional small forward or small ball power forward potential at times and you see his varied offensive skill set along with his defensive length and ability shine for a loaded Warriors team. He has pseudo all-star potential if given enough opportunity or responsibility. He averaged 10-5-1-1 last season and is averaging 10-7-2 so far this season in three games. He will never get to breakout on the Warriors with the way they’re currently constructed but may improve and flash enough potential for another team to sign him to max offer sheet and put the Warriors in a corner.
Terrance Jones averaged 11-6-1-1 in limited action last season as he missed 49 games with a litany of injuries. He has struggled so far this season averaging 9-5-1 and is currently dealing with a laceration above his right eye. Jones is a very skilled tweener at the forward position who can handle the ball, create his own shot and is developing a reliable three-point shot. He may get lost in the shuffle with a loaded Rockets team and see his value decrease, but don’t be surprised to see a talent hungry team sign him to a max offer sheet to pry him from the Rockets this summer.
Best of the Rest
-Jared Sullinger
-Donatas Montejunas
-Evan Fournier
-Meyers Leonard
-Jae Crowder
-Dion Waiters
-Tyler Zeller
The most interesting name on this list is Montejunas as he is another player who seems to have a high celing and could be valued for his ability to stretch the floor and protect the rim. It’s obvious Houston won’t be able to keep Jones and Montejunas and one or both may get big offers from other teams.
The Celtics have a trio of players on this list in Sullinger, Crowder and Zeller and Sullinger and Zeller’s values may crater a little this season as both of which are stuck in a logjam for frontcourt players in Boston, while a weak set of wing players allows Crowder’s value to increase and he has flashed some DeMarre Carrol potential with his three point shooting, great on ball defense and general toughness (and the hair). Zeller will more than likely be the odd man out in the Celtics rotation which will hurt his value and may make him readily available in the offseason and Sullinger will have to prove he is the cream of the crop of the group to prove his value to the Celtics and the rest of the NBA.
Fournier’s value will decline this season with the arrival of Mario Hezonja, and a healthy Aaron Gordon and could sign elsewhere and Meyers Leonard’s value will more than likely increase significantly this season with increased opportunity as he is the rare seven-footer who can shoot near 40% from downtown. He is a great candidate to get overpaid by Portland or someone else this offseason.
Waiters value and he league wide perception of him fell off a cliff in 2014-15 and he must take advantage of the opportunity to be the bench scoring option for a championship caliber Thunder team to rehab his value enough to command seven-figures in OKC or elsewhere.
