Now that All-Star Weekend is upon us and we will have a little extra down time with the NBA’s new “bye week” taking effect this week with no regular action from Feb. 12-20, I think this is an appropriate time to share some observations of the first 50 games of the season and what it may be telling for what’s in store for April, May and June.
1. We will have a first-time MVP award winner
Unless LeBron James has the most incredible last couple months of the regular season ever and leads the Cavs to 55 or more wins while averaging something like 30-8-8 down the stretch, it has become pretty apparent that the MVP award is going to one of the young guns leading their teams in the Wild West. Right now it seems as though this award is a race between two men: Steph Curry and James Harden, with Anthony Davis looming with an outside shot if the Pelicans shoot up the Western conference standings and “The Brow” torches the league.
Curry is more than worthy at this point as the baby-faced assassin and the leader of the Splash Brothers is averaging 23-8-5 on an efficient 90%-48%-40% from the field for the 41-9 Golden State Warriors.
With much consideration and consternation I have to give the nod to Harden at this point though. He has led a Rockets team hampered by injuries (Dwight Howard, Terrance Jones, Patrick Beverley) to a 36-16 record while averaging 28-7-6 on 88%-50%-39% shooting. Not to mention he has improved his defense dramatically, as his opponent defensive field-goal percentage is He has been the ultimate alpha dog this season elevating his game to new heights. Nobody has been more valuable to their team through 52 games.
2.The Trade Deadline will be quiet
The big noise seems to have already been made this season in the way of player movement as the arms race in the nuclear warfare that is the Western Conference has led to the Mavericks acquiring Rajon Rondo, the Grizzles acquiring Jeff Green, the Rockets picking up Josh Smith, and a few other scattered moves (Dion Waiters to the Thunder, Brendan Wright to the Suns). The Cavs have also done their in-season roster overhaul with the additions of Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith, and Iman Shumpert. Although there are a few interesting names potentially on the market such as Goran Dragic, Arron Afflalo and Reggie Jackson, my hunch says none of which, save maybe Afflalo gets dealt. The more interesting player movement may be the result of player buyouts for veterans such as Amare Stoudemire, Kevin Garnett and Tayshaun Prince and what contenders they could land with. Also, whether Ray Allen gives it one more go and whom she chooses to join down the stretch.
3. Health and team matchups will determine how the Western Conference playoffs turn out, seeding and home court won’t matter
The depth and parody of the Western Conference is at an all-time high as there are minute differences between the top 7 teams in the West and the Oklahoma City Thunder are still looming if they can get it together. When the 7-seed in your conference still has the third highest odds to win it all you know things are crazy. In my estimation you could make a very strong argument that six teams could make the NBA Finals if a integral piece of their team can stay healthy: Golden State and Andrew Bogut (the biggest x-factor in the whole conference in my opinion), San Antonio and Tony Parker, Memphis and Vince Carter (admittedly not as important as other guys on this list), Oklahoma City and Kevin Durant, the Clippers and Blake Griffin, and the Rockets and Dwight Howard. This year’s postseason will all come down to who stays healthy, what teams will assert their style over one another (who controls the tempo in a prospective Golden State-Memphis series?) and as always who has a few lucky bounces go their way.
4. The Cavs should regret dealing Andrew Wiggins to get Kevin Love
Although I think Love’s struggles have been overblown somewhat, yes his shooting percentages are down across the board by a few percentage points and he seems disinterested at times as he is unhappy with being a third-option, it was clear that his out of this world numbers were going to go down playing with two other stars and 17-10 is respectable. Especially considering he is often looming around the three-point line limiting his offensive rebound opportunities.
The problem with Love is the knock and fear with him in Minnesota was that his gaudy numbers didn’t result in helping his team win and were somewhat “empty” numbers as he never was able to even get Minnesota in the postseason. That fear seems to be coming to fruition in Cleveland as his defense continues to be subpar and he probably gives up as many points as he scores on a nightly basis. Wiggins, on the other hand has been on fire as of late and averaged 20-5-2 in January on respectable 47% from the field and 34% from three, oh and he turns 20 years old in a week and a half.
I realize that LeBron is 30 and his biggest championship window is the next 3-4 years, Wiggins is a work in progress, and he plays the same position as LeBron, but I think the Cavs would be a better team with Wiggins in two years and maybe even now. Wiggins can be an elite wing defender and take pressure off of LeBron and allow LeBron to dominate at the four like he did in Miami. Cleveland’s issues aren’t scoring punch, shooting and rebounding which Love brings, it’s defense and athleticism which Andrew Wiggins has. I could be wrong but I think gifting a future superstar two-way player for the immediate impact of a (albeit talented) player who improves your team slightly at a hefty price isn’t worth it, even if it slightly heightens your championship chances in 2015.
5. The extreme disparity between the Western and Eastern conference this season will cause Adam Silver to make the groundbreaking move of un-conferencing the postseason
How much more entertaining would the playoffs be if we got to see a Cavs-Warriors type matchup in round 2?
Silver has shown a (refreshing) openness to changing the status quo and thinking outside of the box for ways to improve the NBA product, a stark contrast to his predecessor and mentor David Stern (Suns fans will never forget 07’ Stern). So far though, many of his ideas such as lottery reform have been little more than considerations and no huge change has been made. If say the Suns and Pelicans, or god forbid the Thunder win 46 games or so and miss the postseason while the Heat and Hornets or whomever you choose slog through a 36 win season and make the postseason, I think Silver will have the ammo he needs to make this drastic move. The Western Conference has been markedly better than the Eastern Conference for about 14-15 years now and I think a change is necessary. Wouldn’t it be amazing to live in a world where LeBron and Durant could have a postseason rivalry without having to meet in the Finals or you could see the Warriors and the Cavs or Spurs and Bulls play in round 2? I have feeling Silver will have the gusto to change the face of the postseason in major American professional sports and unconference the postseason.
