NBA Coaches beware; once again it’s time for musical chairs!

April 30th, 2008 – Dr. Browntorious

Did last night signal the end of an era for the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns? An era possibly defined by 5 straight years of domination throughout the regular season each followed by playoff let down after playoff letdown. I do have to give both teams credit for fighting till the bitter end in their respective Game 5’s last night, but I’m sure that is no consolation for the Phoenix and Dallas fans that realize the window of opportunity is closing fast on their aging team leaders. Neither team got any younger with their mid-season trades where the Mavs acquired the aging PG Jason Kidd and the Suns making the move for aging Center Shaquille O’Neal. Given the fact that both those trades occurred in the latter half of the season, the players and coaches involved didn’t have a full training camp and season to become acclimated to their new roles, so we won’t have a definitive answer to the success or failure of those trades until as late as June of next year. But as of last night the early indications are pointing to failure for the key decision makers in the two trades: the Suns GM Steve Kerr, and the Mavs Owner Mark Cuban.

So what does this have to do with “Coaches Beware?”

As I’ve seen time and time again in the corporate world, when things aren’t going smoothly for an organization it’s time to play the Blame Game. The inability for key executives and decision makers to take blame in a hierarchical organization transcends sports and generally exists in all types of business. As early as this morning, Mark Cuban began the blame game firing his Head Coach Avery Johnson. Timing is everything, as this move by Cuban looks more like an exercise in public relations strategy than basketball strategy. Reports from various sources this morning are buzzing about the potential firing of the Suns Head Coach Mike D’Antoni. Don’t feel too sorry for these two though, because although Johnson and D’Antoni have very opposing styles of coaching and playmaking, both have proved to be highly successful and won’t be without jobs for long.

For some reason however, history keeps repeating itself, and the musical chairs game for NBA Head Coaches often happens in spurts or phases. Sure feels like we are entering another one of those phases, doesn’t it? In the last few weeks we have heard of a variety of coaching changes: Miami Heat coach Pat Riley steps down and the Heat appoint Erik Spoelstra, Charlotte Bobcats fire Sam Vincent and hire veteran coach Larry Brown, Milwaukee Bucks hire Scott Skiles, Knicks finally fire Isiah Thomas, Bulls fire interim coach Jim Boylan, and now the Mavs fire coach Avery Johnson. Those are what we’ve seen so far, but rumours persist about the possible firing of Raptors Coach Sam Mitchell (one year removed from COY honors), Suns coach Mike D’Antoni, Nuggets coach George Karl etc. etc.

Coach, after coach, after coach is being let go when their team doesn’t live up to expectations. Now this may seem pretty silly but if all GM’s use this logic, then since only 1 of the 30 NBA teams every year wins the title, 29 coaches around the NBA should start getting tight around the collar every June. Or maybe there is more to it? Maybe each team isn’t expected to win the title, right. For example after a team has had multiple years outside of the playoff picture, just making the playoffs would seem like a huge coaching success, right Isiah? And further to that concept, after a team has had multiple years outside the playoffs then is lauded for making them, if the Coach has two or three consecutive playoff seasons resulting in first round exits he’s back in the doghouse, right George Karl?

What does all of this mean? Well probably just the rants of an NBA obsessed fan. Or maybe not, maybe the current NBA Owner’s are breeding NBA head coaches of the future who have a new brand of job securing techniques. The techniques being extremely low drive to win, and extremely high success at managing expectations. This may be a bit extreme but could we start seeing coaches whom shortly after being hired, publicly announce they predict a 25-win season given their roster? Then after closing out a tidy 48-win season with decent playoff positioning, can modestly accept the praise of their bosses. Under-promise and Over-deliver anyone? Ahem…sarcasm.

DeShawn Stevenson got run over by an L-Train!

April 28th, 2008 – Dr. J-Water

This whole DeShawn Stevenson/Soulja Boy vs. Lebron/Jay-Z fiasco is getting old, and fast. There is something really unsettling about the fact that a player of such mediocrity as DeShawn Stevenson can dominate the NBA media during playoff time by simply attempting to call out a player with some of the highest caliber of skill and dominance as Lebron James. Hasn’t this song been played already? Maybe not as extreme but don’t you remember when John Starks attempted to start a rivalry with Michael Jordan during all those Knicks-Bulls playoff battles? How about when Ruben Patterson decided he’d tell the media he was the one and only “Kobe-Stopper” and could shut down the Black Mamba? I’m pretty sure we all remember how those situations turned out. My guess is this won’t be much different. In a week the name DeShawn Stevenson will be a thing of the past, and the NBA playoff media can once again focus on the “on-court” play of some of the great players that currently inhabit our professional league.

I have been thoroughly impressed with the maturity Lebron James has shown in handling the situation. After the notorious Stevenson statement saying James is “overrated,” Lebron made the initial mistake of telling reporters he wouldn’t respond as it “would be like Jay-Z saying something bad about Soulja Boy.” Since then he has continually attempted to deflect the media back to basketball by repeating “there is no DeShawn-Lebron rivalry.” Just when you think the situation is finally over and we could get back to focusing on the team match ups, Stevenson keeps the gossip bus rolling by inviting Soulja Boy to Game 3 of the series in an attempt to taunt Lebron. The Wizards supporters will undoubtedly point to the recent leak of a Jay-Z diss track cutting up Stevenson in a futile attempt to vilify King James in this situation. Incase noone has noticed, Lebron James is not Jay-Z. I’m pretty sure Jay-Z is his own man, and makes his own decisions (given the news of his recent nuptials with Beyonce, he’s making wise ones). For those of you who haven’t heard about the diss track, it’s a Jay-Z freestyle to the beat of the “Blow the Whistle” by hip hop artist Too Short. Apparently it was played repeatedly on Friday night at the nightclub Love in Washington D.C. Those in attendance claim that Cavs guard Damon Jones got on the mic to introduce the track and was talkin’ smack about Stevenson and the Wizards.

Listen to the full Jay-Z diss track about DeShawn Stevenson.

So that was the lead-up to Game 4 this weekend between the Wiz and Cavs. And what happened in Game 4? As expected Lebron James was dominant in all facets of the game. Also as expected, DeShawn Stevenson was hardly noticeable aside from his flagrant foul on Lebron James late in the first half. After the flagrant hit to the head, Lebron again showed a great deal of maturity and restraint towards Stevenson. James did what any Superstar would do following a flagrant attack of this kind; he punished the Wizards on both ends of the floor, finishing the game with 34pts, 12 boards, 7 assists, 2 steals, and leading the Cavs to a 3-1 series lead in this best of 7 series.

So as the Lebron’ Cavs look to close out the Wiz in Game 5 on Wednesday night, hopefully the players and rappers can shelf the off-court antics for the remainder of the series and let their game speak for itself. And if that’s the case, I wouldn’t want to be Stevenson standing on the tracks as the L-Train rolls full-steam ahead.

Philadelphia 76ers: Do you believe in magic?

I don’t know about the rest of the basketball community, but every time I see the NBA 2008 playoff bracket updates my eyes take a second look at the Detroit-Philadelphia series. No matter how many times I saw the 76ers leading the Pistons 1-0, tied 1-1, and now the 76ers leading the Pistons 2-1, it feels like my mind is playing tricks on me. During the 2007 playoffs when the Golden State Warriors knocked off the top seed Dallas Mavericks everyone was in a state of shock, however in comparison that would feel like a mere tremor compared to the massive earthquake that would rock the basketball media if the 76ers took down the veteran, blue-collar, championship-caliber Detroit Pistons.

Although many NBA fans when watching this series have their eyes on the high flying, and athletic Andre Iguodala, I’m most surprised to see how well veteran leader Andre Miller is guiding this young team. Don’t get me wrong, I watched Miller have another stellar year throughout the regular season, however he has raised his decision-making ability to another level for these playoffs. Miller was often criticized in Denver for his poor decision making in crucial moments of games where the opposing team was making a run. So far throughout this series he has had an answer to every Pistons run, by knocking down jumpers when his team is struggling to put points on the board, or throwing seemingly perfect lobs to his young rim rockers in Iggy, Dalembert, and Thaddeus Young.

Speaking of Samuel Dalembert, he has also raised his game to another level so far in the post-season. It’s now to the point where I have been subconsciously calling him “Dalembeast” in every conversation I’ve had with my boyz about this series. Heading into the playoffs I thought the key to this series for the Sixers was somehow addressing their outmatched frontline against the likes of Sheed, McDyess, and Prince. Much to my surprise and most likely the Pistons as well, has been the domination of the Sixers Dalembert, Reggie Evans, Thaddeus Young, and Iguodala on both the offensive and defensive glass. In the two Philadelphia wins the Sixers out rebounded the Pistons a combined 88 to 77, whereas in the Philly loss Detroit out rebounded them 42-34.

Steals, rebounds, blocks, second-chance points: these types of blue-collar, veteran box score stuffers have for years been the trademark of the Detroit Pistons. However in this series the advantage is to Philly. A good example of a young star showing this type of veteran savvy was Iguodala in Game 3. Although the young stud shot a mere 2-9 from the floor, on a night when he was struggling with his shot he opted to use his athleticism to more than make up for his shooting woes with 6 assists, 4 boards, 4 steals, and 6 free throws. The latter the result of putting it on the floor and takin’ it hard to the goal.

With all that said there is one trap the Philadelphia 76ers need to avoid, and that is celebrating too early. If there is one team you can’t give an inch to, it’s the Detroit Pistons. Like any team loaded with NBA veterans, my guess is their pride has been dented which will result in a Pistons team coming out in Game 4 with a focus and determination the Sixers have yet to face in this series. Look for guys like Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton to come out poised with a chip on their shoulder. The key for the Sixers livelihood will be taking the Pistons best punch, and countering with hustle and athleticism on defense and on the glass.

Philadelphia Head Coach Maurice Cheeks in his Game 3 post-game news conference talked about explaining to his playoff inexperienced team the “3 facets to this series. The first one getting our feet wet in the playoffs, the second one tryin’ to withstand a team we know had been in the playoffs many times, and the third one was tonight where we had to learn how to play with a crowd behind us.” Well if the Philadelphia 76ers want to have a real legitimate shot at winning this series Mo Cheeks better explain to his young team the 4th and most crucial ‘facet’ of an NBA Playoff series, “closing out a team”. One of the most valuable assets of an experienced veteran playoff team is that they usually have learned and possess the killer instinct. It’s still early in this series, but from watching their body language and play of late it seems like the 76ers players are starting to have the belief necessary to keep this ball rolling.

Do you believe in magic?

Is timing everything for Raptors Coach Sam Mitchell?

April 24th, 2008 – Dr. Dime

As the 2006-07 NBA season drew to a close, Sam Mitchell defied all the odds signing his second NBA head-coaching contract with the Toronto Raptors. Why was this signing so improbable? Let’s take a look at Sam’s last three seasons with the Raptors.

In 2005-06 Mitchell was voted by Sports Illustrated as the head coach of its all-dysfunctional team. Mitchell’s confrontational nature with the media quickly had him labeled as a “hard nose” head coach. This reputation was echoed further from his past as reports surfaced that during the 2004-05 season he had challenged his starting point guard Rafer Alston to a fight during practice. Mitchell’s unprofessionalism could also be noted from the sidelines, as he was often found to be running out and celebrating on the floor with players after game winning shots. In this manner he resembled more of an excited player than a head coach. More and more it was looking as if Mitchell’s time in Toronto would be coming to a close at the conclusion or even sooner than the expiration of his inaugural coaching contract.

Two years ago the celebrated firing of Raptors GM Rob Babcock brought in a man by the name of Brian Colangelo, and with him a new era for the Raptors was about to emerge. Given Colangelo’s family lineage and coming from the Phoenix Suns some would argue Colangelo sought to transform the Raptors into the Sun’s of the East. Although not as successful as the Suns, the Raptors went from missing the playoffs in 2005-06 to a Division winning season in 2006-07, ultimately ending in a first round knock out at the hands of former Raptor Vince Carter and the New Jersey Nets. Although disappointed at seeing the Raptors lose in seven games, fans were optimistic that the direction of the team was finally on the rise. This quick one-year turn around landed Brian Colangelo Executive of the Year honors, a success for which had a trickle down effect, resulting in the voting of Sam Mitchell for the Coach of the Year award. From a public and fan relations perspective, this award ultimately hand-cuffed Colangelo into resigning Mitchell for 4 years at 12 million dollars.

The 2007-08 season picked up where the 2006-07 season left off. The Raptors play was strong out of the gates establishing themselves as one of the stronger Eastern Conference teams. After losing TJ Ford to a hard foul by Al Horford early in the season, backup point guard Jose Calderon stepped in performing magnificently. His ability to generate wins and make the Raptors play better team ball, left fans wondering what would happen upon TJ’s return. After a month off and a few games as the back-up, Mitchell quickly plugged TJ back into his original starting role. This line-up change combined with poor play from first round draft pick Andrea Bargnani resulted in the Raptors finishing the second half of the season with a below .500 record.

This post season for the Raptors appears to be leading to another first round exit. Mitchell’s insistence on starting TJ ford over a more productive Jose Calderon shows an inability to recognize what’s working with his squad. Ford is shooting a dismal 2 for 17 so far in the series, while Calderon is shooting 10 for 22. After going 8 for 15 in game one of the series, Toronto’s Center Rasho Nesterovic played just five minutes in game two. Sitting the bench for much of the game behind struggling second year Center Andrea Bargnani, the Raptors clearly struggled securing boards and scoring in the paint. This “small ball” decision from Mitchell left the Raps two points shy of a win as they lost to Orlando for the second time 104 to 103.

Mitchell’s bad coaching decisions and widely apparent buddy, buddy nature with players leaves many Raptors fans calling for change. This doesn’t look likely to come to fruition, as Maple Leaf Sports Entertainment also owns the Raptors. This organization is notoriously paralyzed by bureaucracy, with a Board of Directors continually more interested in avoiding short term financial loss (buying out Mitchell’s coaching contract) than focusing on the long term future of the franchise. This fact coupled with Mitchell’s untimely 2006-07 Coach of the Year win, leaves this Hoop Doctor thinking that ‘timing is everything’ for Mr. Sam Mitchell.

NBA Playoffs 2008: J-Water’s Round 1 Predictions

This has got to be one of the greatest NBA seasons I’ve ever had the pleasure of watching. From the off-season trades that brought together the powerhouse “Big Three” in Boston, to the perennial powerhouse Pistons showcasing Deeee-troit Basketball once again, to the emergence of the LA Lakers and New Orleans Hornets as the shocking leaders of the Western Conference, and finally to the Denver Nuggets being the first team in NBA History to record a 50 win season and finish as only an 8th seed heading into the playoffs.

NBA Playoffs 2008 kicked off this weekend, and boy did it ever live up to the hype! Although we didn’t see too many upset wins, as most of the top seeds beat the lower seeds (Ahem….sorry Pistons fans), it still proved to be exciting in almost every contest. The pinnacle was clearly the Suns/Spurs double overtime thriller, but I doubt many NBA fans were surprised about that given these two high performing teams in clutch time. If history repeats itself from previous playoff meetings, the Suns and Spurs series will be a possession to possession, highly aggressive battle from start to finish.

Even though NBA Playoffs 2008 started this weekend, I’m still hearing an abundance of NBA fans talking individual awards, most often about who will win the MVP. Priorities man, priorities! There is only one award that really matters at this point in the year, and that’s the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy!

Here are the Doc J-Water series by series predictions for Round 1 match-ups. I love this game!

Western Conference:

LA Lakers (1) vs. Denver Nuggets (8)

For years a first seed playing an 8th seed in the NBA Playoffs meant a sweep or blowout. As we saw last year with the Golden State Warriors knocking out the 67-win Dallas Mavericks, you can no longer take anything for granted in the Western Conference. This series will be no exception for the LA Lakers. Although they clearly have the upper hand in that they play both ends of the floor, where the Nuggets are essentially non-existent defensively, the Nuggets do have enough firepower and scoring talent to just flat out dominate you offensively on any given night. The question for the Nuggets will be, can they do it at least 4 times in the 7 game series? My feeling is probably not.

The key to the Nuggets beating the Lakers would have to be their depth off the bench. J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza could spark their offense, if Iverson and Anthony have any off nights shooting. The Nuggets will also have to take care of business on their home court, where the altitude is probably one of their biggest assets. And the key for the Lakers will be to continue to have Pau Gasol punish the notoriously weak defensive Nugget team on the interior, for over committing on rotations to the lethal three point threats of Kobe Bryant, Fisher, Vujacic, and Radmanovic on the perimeter.

Dr. J-Water Prediction: Lakers in 6

New Orleans Hornets (2) vs. Dallas Mavericks (7)

Will Mark Cuban get rewarded handsomely for taking the ultimate risk in trading away developing talent for an aging veteran superstar (Kidd) with a hefty contract? My guess is no. Since the departure of Steve Nash and Don Nelson, the Mavericks have significantly changed their style of play to a more balanced offensive/defensive team that plays “the right way” as Larry Brown used to say. This style of play can be effective for certain player personnel, but it isn’t a great fit for the free wheeling Jason Kidd. He is still putting up great numbers, but unless Avery Johnson completely lets go of the reigns and has gives Jason Kidd the full green light to operate in his style, the Mavericks will sputter through this series against the young Hornets.

With that being said, the Mavericks have a lot of veteran leadership on this team, with a lot of playoff experience. The type of experience the Mav’s players have will pay huge dividends down the stretch of games they can somehow keep close. Although Chris Paul has played unbelievable this season, along with David West and Tyson Chandler, I would predict that most games decided by 10 points or less would be in favor of the Mavericks. Look for Peja Stojakovic to come up huge in this series, while all eyes defensively are on Chris Paul and David West.

Dr. J-Water Prediction: Hornets in 7

San Antonio Spurs (3) vs. Phoenix Suns (6)

Could someone please tell me how on God’s green earth did these two teams end up meeting in the first round of the playoffs?? Let’s face it, whoever wins this series has probably the most legitimate shot at winning the Western Conference. I really feel bad for whoever loses this series (well not as much the Spurs since they have a title as recent as 2007).

This is probably the most difficult series to predict an outcome, it’s really a coin flip. Although they have polar opposite styles of play, both teams play their style to perfection. Look for this series to go the distance with neither veteran team wanting to give an inch.

Dr. J-Water Prediction: Suns in 7

Utah Jazz (4) vs. Houston Rockets (5)

Houston’s 22 game win streak will most likely be the highlight of the Rocket’s season for 2008. Although I love their team work, hustle, and blue-collar work ethic, without Yao Ming anchoring the team in the middle, the Rockets really don’t have a chance to beat anyone in the Western Conference playoffs this year.

The Jazz were almost unbeatable this year at home in Utah, and the Rockets haven’t been that strong since their legendary win streak. Couple this with the fact that Carlos Boozer is having probably his best season on both ends of the floor, and will have an inexperienced Luis Scola attempting to contain him on defense, and it spells sweep for the Jazz.

Dr. J-Water Prediction: Jazz in 4

Eastern Conference:

Boston Celtics (1) vs. Atlanta Hawks (8)

Sorry Hawks fans, but there will be no Cinderella story here. This one is all over, the Fat lady is singing! The addition of Mike Bibby did help the Atlanta Hawks offense start to show some of their untapped potential with all of the young talent on this team; however it is far from a finished product. Not to mention the fact that there is no team currently a bigger favorite to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy than the Hawks opponents, the Boston Celtics.

Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, and Paul Pierce will be itching to send a message to the rest of the league that their regular season showing was no fluke. This team is for real, they play both ends of the court with style, and their ‘team-first’ attitude for a team loaded with veteran super-stars pretty much gives the Celtics a lock for an Eastern Conference finals appearance. Celtics fans are already sayin’ “NEXT!”

Dr. J-Water Prediction: Celtics in 4

Detroit Pistons (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7)

I know I’m writing this article after Game 1 is already in the books, but I seriously wasn’t all that surprised that the Sixer’s got the win. Philly has been working hard and playin’ tough down the stretch of the regular season to earn a playoff spot. That has kept them sharp and ready to roll. The Pistons on the other hand have had the #2 seed in the East locked up for what seems like forever. I always cringe when I see Coaches change their game and practice routines to close out the season after they lock in their seeds. Flip Saunders has been rotating through his stars giving them games and practices off to rest for the playoffs for the last few weeks. Basketball is a game of rhythm both physically and mentally, and I always felt that time off was much more dangerous for a players game, then taking the risk of suffering an injury by playing in a game that didn’t matter to the standings.

I have a strong suspicion though that Game 1 was the wake up call the Pistons needed to get serious and put on a display of true “Deeee-troit Basketball.” Enough of Wallace laughing and joking with his buddies. There is plenty of time for that in the off-season. For now it’s time for the nasty, aggressive, lock down defense style of Pistons play. Although Wallace’s cavalier attitude may not have affected his play, there is no doubt it affects that of his team mates who have always fed off his vibe.

Dr. J-Water Prediction: Pistons in 6

Orlando Magic (3) vs. Toronto Raptors (6)

The Toronto Raptors had a high degree of success against the Orlando Magic in the regular season. Most of this success was due to Chris Bosh’s defense on Dwight Howard. Everyone looks at Bosh as the offensive leader of the Raps, but if they want to have even the slightest of chances at winning this series they will have to lean hard on Bosh and Nesterovic to slow down the Dunk Champion.

The Orlando Magic were on fire from long range in game one, so much so, I half jokingly expected to even get a J.J. Redick sighting off the bench. Jameer Nelson played very solid at the point, clearly outplaying the much talked about point guard combo of Ford/Calderon. My gut tells me that if the Raptors want to avoid a sweep they better switch Calderon and Ford’s roles and have Ford be the scoring spark off the bench with the second-line crew. Calderon seems much more comfortable in the starter’s role facilitating for his team mates, and getting the perimeter players off on the right foot to begin the game. When TJ starts the ball game he looks to score himself, or drive and dish to Bosh, which completely takes away from the perimeter players ‘pass-first’ style so common with a Colangelo team.

Dr. J-Water Prediction: Magic in 5

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. Washington Wizards (5)

It’s become so commonplace for the last few years, that the NBA Playoffs just wouldn’t be the same without a Cavaliers and Wizards battle. Game 1 as expected was a grind on every possession with King James once again coming out on top. We all know what Lebron can do in the post-season so the real key to this series is finding him a secondary scorer to knock down shots on a consistent basis. In Game 1 that was the Big Z. I expect Delonte West to step up and play big for the Cavs for the remainder of this series.

The Wizards looked pretty good in the last half of the regular season, but unfortunately even the return of Gilbert Arenas won’t be enough to dethrone the defending Eastern Conference Champs this early in the post-season. The L-Train is chugging, full-steam ahead.

Dr. J-Water Prediction: Cavaliers in 6

Send in your comments and predictions, we want to hear about them! Regardless of who’s predictions come true though, this years playoffs are sure to be classic.

One for the Money, Two for Amare, the Three to get Suns going, and Four to Go

Suns-Spurs Playoff War 2008 – by Dr. Dime

Were you among the masses who thought the race to the playoffs in the West this year was one of the most exciting you have ever seen? Get ready for Playoffs 2008! The NBA is about to hit an all new level of excitement and fan uptake. Some of the greatest playoff battles in history have occurred in the Western Conference over the past few years; however the great thing about Playoffs 2008 is that this time they will happen as early as the first round. Personally I have already ear-marked one series in particular to rise above the rest. Offense vs. Defense, Speed vs. Grind, Loose vs. Tight, Wants vs. Haves, Suns fans may even say Good vs. Evil. Yes that’s right; we are talking about another seemingly unavoidable playoff war between the Phoenix Suns and the San Antonio Spurs.

There are four critical elements in this series that will play a huge role for either team if they want to avoid a first round exit from the playoffs. The keys to this series as referenced in the title are: only one team can move on (them or us mentality), the Spurs will undoubtedly have to double Amare Stoudemire to slow him down, Shaq’s presence in the paint will grant the Suns perimeter player’s wide-open looks from the 3-pt line, and both teams will have to stay focused defensively for 48 minutes a game to get the necessary 4 wins.

The Suns have been eliminated from the playoffs by the Spurs in three of their last four post-season appearances. Add to that fact that the Suns elimination last year and the controversy surrounding it, must still be weighing on the Suns players. You remember the Game 1 loss Suns fans will attribute to the referee removal of Steve Nash, due to excessive bleeding, with a minute to go and only a 2-pt deficit. How about the last minute Game 4 body check of Nash by Robert Horry of the Spurs, leading to the suspension of Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw. Many Suns fans thought that those incidents coupled with some other controversial plays, muddied the Spurs eventual victory over the Suns.

This year there is one slight difference of course. Well not so slight really, The Diesel: Shaquille O’Neal. This is exactly the scenario Steve Kerr envisioned when he made the blockbuster trade of Shawn Marion for O’Neal (albeit Kerr probably didn’t envision a first round match-up). It’s hard to believe one of these championship contenders will be eliminated from the post-season in the first round. As we saw in the final two meetings of the season for these clubs, having Shaq in the paint to rebound and play defense on Tim Duncan proved to be the decisive factor in the Suns victories. With that being said, I thought an even larger ‘Shaq factor’ in the Suns victories was the defensive presence of Shaq in slowing the continual slashing to the rim of both Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. When Ginobili and Parker are settling for more jump shots than drives, the Spurs go from being a mediocre offensive team to a downright abysmal offensive team. Although most analysts consider the Suns to be an offensive team, and the Spurs to be a defensive team, it will have to be an effective Suns defense that wins them this series, and conversely an effective Spurs offense.

Keys to Suns defense:

1. It has been fairly obvious in the Suns-Spurs match-ups to date that Steve Nash cannot guard Tony Parker off the bounce. Mike D’Antoni is smart enough to most likely switch to some sort of zone defense, or have Nash pick up Bruce Bowen on defense and let Raja Bell or Leandro Barbosa pick up Parker.
2. Shaq and Amare have to pack in the lane and force San Antonio to shoot jumpers. This will also force Tim Duncan away from his money shot (the short banker) and into some sort of dribble/back down move he has proven uncomfortable with against the big fella.
3. Match physical play with physical play.
4. Close out defensive stops by securing the rebound. It’s not enough to force a miss, the key to the fast break for the Suns lies in their ability to either close out defensive rebounds or force steals and turnovers.

Keys to the Spurs Offense:

1. Play small ball with Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Bruce Bowen, and Michael Finley on the floor as much as possible. Bowen and Finley’s ability to stretch the defense will create more slashing lanes for Ginobili and Parker. Even some frequent appearances from Brent Barry and Matt Bonner
2. If you choose to double team someone, make it Amare Stoudemire. If you haven’t noticed, Amare when playing with Shaq rarely has been getting double teamed. When he does I rarely ever see him throw a dump pass to an open Shaq for an easy dunk. Instead he gets And 1 after And 1 against help side defenders who only half commit away from Shaq and give some ticky-tack foul. Greg Popovich should recognize this and instruct his players to double team hard on Amare and test his passing ability. From what I have seen this year his passing ability has been fairly suspect.
3. The Spurs already conduct the half court inside-outside game running through Duncan to perfection. What most analysts will say is for the Spurs to slow the ball down whenever possible to play Spurs tempo of basketball. Problem is defensively the Suns want the Spurs to play half court on offense. This gives their new big man time to get back on defense and clog the paint, and the rest of the team time to set up their defensive zone coverage. My recommendation would be for the Spurs guards to push the ball like the Suns do at every opportunity. Then do their best to play transition defense (something they are tops in the league at)

There are many unanswered questions that come to mind that will eventually determine the outcome of this first round heavy weight bout: Can Shaq stay out of foul trouble? Do the Spurs double team Shaq or Amare? Can the Suns supporting cast shoot well from beyond the arc? Do the Suns once again buckle under the physical play of the Spurs or does Shaq bring that added confidence and toughness to turn the tables in their favour? Lucky for NBA fans everywhere the answers will be revealed shortly, some as early as Saturday @ 3pm ET, on ABC.

Dr. Dime’s Prediction on this sure to be classic: Suns in 6 games (you saw it here first).

Get ready for another war…but this time the Suns tanks are powered by Diesel!

Forget about ‘Big Cactus’, Shaq should be called ‘Mr. Intangible’!

Superman, The Diesel, The Big Aristotle, Shaq Daddy, M.D.E. (Most Dominant Ever), Wilt Chamberneazy, The Big Deporter, Shaq-Fu, and most recently his self-imposed nickname – “The Big Cactus”. Not only Mr. O’Neal himself, but fans and critics alike, have failed to mention one more possible nickname, “Mr. Intangible”. Shaq is like a magnet for the championship trophy. Ever since he entered the league in 1992, his name has been synonymous with winning. This guy has won four titles and taken 3 different franchises to the big dance, and I wouldn’t bet against the Phoenix Suns this year as being his 4^th franchise.

I am getting so sick and tired of the statistic junkies pointing out the statistical decline of Shaq’s scoring numbers as some sort of measure of his value. You would think after the Miami Heat won the title in 2006 while Shaq averaged lower than ever scoring outputs, that the knuckleheads would understand that Shaq’s value to a team is not solely his scoring prowess (for those that are going to argue Dwayne Wade as the reason for winning the title, please check the 2004-2006 Miami Heat record with Shaq out of line-up and compare to Shaq in the line-up). The need for Shaq to score to be dominant is about as important as the need for Steve Nash to score to be dominant. That is why they should call Shaq “Mr. Intangible”.

What are the intangibles?

On offense makes everyone better: Regardless of how many or how few points Shaq scores, because of his continued ability to score at a high percentage (58% for his career, 60% for 2007-2008), opponents have to make a decision from the start of every contest whether or not they will double team Shaq when he gets the ball in the low-post. If they do not double team him, he will score at an even greater rate than 60% of his attempts, and generally Shaq’s coaches will recognize this and increase his touches. If they do decide to double team Shaq he has become one of the best passing big men in the game. Shaq’s perimeter teammates benefit from kick outs to produce unbelievably wide open looks, and Shaq’s forward teammates benefit from backdoor passes for easy dunks, or flip/drop passes while slashing to the lane for uncontested dunks (often making highlight reels). Recipients such as Horace Grant, Rick Fox, Udonis Haslem, and Amare Stoudemire should be able to attest to this.

Defensive Presence: We all know Shaq has the size, length, and timing to block shots. Heck, he still has the record for most blocks in an NCAA game when at LSU with 17. And although his number of blocks is still a respectable 1.5 bpg, it is well below his career average of 2.4 bpg. SO WHAT, WHO CARES? I never thought Shaq’s ability to block shots was his defensive strength anyway. Anyone who has actually played competitive basketball knows that running or slashing to the lane at full speed then trying to stop on a dime and get a quality jump shot off is extremely difficult due to weight and energy transference (ever try driving 90 miles an hour and slamming on the brakes?). The situation I just described is what Shaq forces guards all across the league into doing when they see a 7’1”, 325lb mammoth in the lane as they drive the ball to the hoop. It’s off-balance jumper, after off-balance jumper hitting the back iron. Shaq’s effect in the defensive paint isn’t just felt by the guards however, his presence clogs up the middle for the opposing forwards and centers too. Why do you think opposing Coaches spend countless hours trying to figure out ways to draw Shaquille out of the defensive paint in their offense (most times trying to get him to defend a pick and roll or guard the perimeter).

Rebounding on both ends: Shaq is still a huge asset on the glass. His season average of just over 9 boards a game (btw it’s 10.4 for the Suns thus far) is just slightly down from his 11 career average. I don’t see much of a drop off here in production, if anything this may just be a result of playing fewer minutes per game than his earlier years in the league.

Team Chemistry: C’mon, how can you not love Shaq? The guy is absolutely hilarious (take a look at this video), but serious when the time is right. I bet virtually every player in the league would love to be his team-mate and have this funny dude in their locker room. Not to mention the confidence it would give a player to have a 325lb powerhouse watchin’ your back. If you don’t think team chemistry has anything to do with winning, ask Isiah Thomas about his $89 million dollar player payroll for the bottom dwelling New York Knicks. Loads of talent, brutal team.

The above are just a few examples of the intangibles Shaq brings to a team. Others include Star power, confidence, accountability, toughness. All of which don’t show up on the box score at the end of the night. And it doesn’t hurt ownership that he puts butts in seats on a nightly basis.

So how many uniforms does Shaq need to be wearing as he hoists his numerous championship trophies, before critics stop looking at the damn box score and start looking at what matters, wins and losses? Shaq is a winner, a difference maker, plain and simple.

Why Kobe will win his first MVP, and why he doesn’t really deserve it…

Every NBA Fan knows that Kobe Bryant is one of the most prolific scorers in NBA History, and along with Allen Iverson is probably the best scorer we have seen since “The One”, Mr. Michael Jeffrey Jordan himself. So after 11 full NBA seasons, now playing in his 12^th, why has Kobe never won the league’s greatest individual honor, the “Maurice Podoloff Trophy” for the leagues Most Valuable Player? Heck, why has he not even been in the top 2 or 3 in consideration for the award? Well, that all may change this year as all indications are pointing towards a Kobe Bryant anointment as the league MVP. If you are a Kobe Bryant and LA Laker fan please do not continue reading this article, unless you are willing to take an objective look at the points raised. Although Kobe will most likely win the MVP award, you are about to read why Kobe isn’t even in my top 3 candidates for MVP, with Lebron “King” James in my view leading the pack as the most deserving candidate.

Let’s start off by stating a few simple facts: Best player in the league isn’t the most valuable player, best scorer isn’t the most valuable, most exciting player isn’t the most valuable player, fan favourite isn’t the most valuable player, hell the best dressed doesn’t count for squat in the MVP race either! All of which (aside from the latter) are all statements I have heard people using interchangeably when discussing who is the 2008 NBA Most Valuable Player.

Kobe this year has been amazing, leading the Lakers to one of the best records in the tough Western Conference. However, he isn’t doing much this year different from the last three years, aside from playing slightly more defense. What has changed is a massive improvement in the play of his supporting cast. Andrew Bynum started most of this season playing out of his mind, and if he didn’t get hurt would have been a legitimate candidate for Most Improved Player. Sasha Vujacic came on this year as one of the most efficient three point shooters in the NBA. Lamar Odom is starting to finally live up to his potential as an all around threat in the mould of a Scottie Pippen. Derek Fisher came back on board to play quarterback, and provide steady veteran leadership and know how. And last but not least I must mention the not-so-little “gift” handed to the Lakers by the Memphis Grizzlies, ah yes, Mr. Pau Gasol. Since the addition of Pau Gasol, the Lakers have gone from a decent team bound for playoffs, to a legitimate contender to win the West. Kobe is a very gifted scorer, but his increased fortune in supporting cast giving him a better team record, should not mean he is a shoe-in for the MVP award.

For those that felt Kobe should have won MVP last year due to his 81 point effort against the Raptors or winning last year’s scoring title, you are on shaky ground this year given that Lebron James is averaging 30.4 ppg to Kobe’s 28.6 ppg. However as previously stated, scoring isn’t everything and therefore I should mention Lebron is averaging 7.5 assists to the 5.3 of Kobe, 8.1 rebounds to the 6.3 of Kobe, and to top it off is shooting a field goal percentage of 48.4% to Kobe’s 45.8%. All of which King James does on a slow it down, grind it out team who has less “possessions per” to get his numbers. But what amazes me most about Lebron’s accomplishments this year, is the fact that he is getting so many assists on a team that is one of the leagues bottom dwellers in shooting percentage. Imagine if his kick outs resulted in knock down J’s most of the time? He would probably be averaging Steve Nash like assist numbers.

For the pundits who state “Well Kobe’s Lakers have a better record than Lebron’s Cavs,” if team record is so very important you may as well just hand the MVP award every year to the best player on the team with the best record. And even in such a scenario Kobe wouldn’t get the honor; in 2008 that player would be Mr. Kevin Garnett of the Boston Celtics.

I do give Kobe credit this year for improving his defense, which seems to be a carry-over from his impressive defensive performance in this summer’s Team USA FIBA America’s gold medal run. But even as impressive as he’s been this year on defense, Lebron has been better. Lebron has been locking down defenders with 1.1 blocks/6.3 defensive boards/1.9 steals per, whereas Kobe is sitting at 0.5 blocks/5.2 defensive boards/1.9 steals per.

Why will Kobe Bryant win the MVP for 2008?

Three main reasons:

1. The voters will feel that a hall of fame scorer of Bryant’s caliber should not go to the hall of fame without ever having won the MVP award.

2. The voters will buy into the “better record than Lebron’s Cavs” talk, all the while overlooking the magic Kevin Garnett has brought to the C’s with the NBA’s best record.

3. The voters will have already pegged Lebron James for MVP in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and possibly beyond. The unfortunate part about this type of thinking is you never know what could happen, and the MVP should go to the most deserving player in that given year. No ‘make-up calls’ please.

So I’ve mentioned Lebron James and Kevin Garnett as my favorites for 2008 MVP before Bryant. Is there anyone else? Here are my top 5 MVP candidates in order of preference for this year’s Maurice Podoloff trophy:

1. Lebron James
2. Chris Paul
3. Kevin Garnett
4. Kobe Bryant
5. Steve Nash

Well there it is. And I’ve done enough NBA debating and blogging to know that the Kobe and Laker fans will leave me some “passionate” responses to this article. Let the J-Water bashing begin.

Pat Riley, the idiot or the genius?

April 4th, 2008 – Dr. Browntorious
What is going on with Mr. Pat Riley?

Let’s go back in time to the 2003-04 season for a minute. The Miami Heat, with Wade, Odom, Butler, and Eddie Jones were a pretty solid team. Dwayne Wade in his rookie season was averaging pretty decent numbers (17 ppg, 4.5 assists, 4 rebounds). Lamar Odom’s numbers were pretty much the same as they are today, Butler was still up and coming but contributing in multiple facets and averaging almost 10 ppg, and Eddie Jones led the team with slightly over 17 ppg. They made it to the playoffs, but were eliminated early. This team was a young team resting their future plans on the growth of Wade and Butler. Then the big trade happened. Odom, Butler, Grant and a first round pick were sent to LA for a disgruntled Shaquille O’Neal.

Shaq, already playing with the best player in the league (Kobe) and two future hall of famers (Payton, Malone), was not able to win his 4th championship. Shaq’s physical shape, resulting in a drop in his production was significant in comparison to his years winning championships. Shaq had become more of a liability against good defense’s than an asset (think of the ‘04’ Detroit series). So what was Riley thinking? He’s going to give up the future of the Heat for one, maybe two shots to make a deep post-season run?

The following year, Miami didn’t make it to the finals; they were wiped out by Detroit again in the conference finals. This is even after Miami landed the best back-up center in history, Alonzo Mourning, who played better that year than even Malone played sometimes filling in at Center for Shaq on the Lakers.

Finally, after Riley pulled some more moves getting Kapono and Jason Williams they managed to win the 2006 NBA Championship. Good job. What happened afterwards? In 2006-2007 Shaq went back to his lazy self as he was on the Lakers, and went on the injured list for the majority of the year, “saving himself for the stretch run”. All the hits Wade took finally caught up to him and he injured his shoulder missing a good part of the season. Although Wade tried to come back and play through the injury just before the playoffs began, it still resulted in Chicago sweeping the Heat in the first round. For a team that had almost no roster changes, they went from being the defending champions to losing to a team considered as “decent” or “mediocre” by most analysts in the league.

Now that brings us to this mess of a season for the Heat. Alonzo goes down with a career ending injury, another overweight, under motivated Shaq and an injured Wade resulted in Miami having the worst record in the league. What does Riley do? He trades Shaq for Marion. In my opinion this is where Riley pulls out his smart card. Phoenix wants to win now and they need to be able to fight against the big men in the West (Amare wasn’t enough?). They trade away Marion, who statistically is consistently one of the best players in the league every year, for Shaq. Shaq’s quoted as saying “I can run”. Yes Shaq, you might be able to run for a couple months, but we’ve seen how lazy you can get and your inability improve on your free throws; so how long can you run for? If history repeats itself, Shaq will be back to his lazy self by the start of training camp next year. What does Miami get with Marion? They get basically a Lamar Odom type player back and probably a number one draft pick next year(because of their position)…so it puts them approximately in the same position as they were in 2003-04.

Where are the Lakers out of that original trade to bring Shaq to Miami? Odom and Kobe are playing amazing together. Lakers rebuilt around Kobe, and have a YOUNG championship contending team for years to come. Sure, Gasol being shipped to the Lakers for nothing is quite inexplicable, but regardless the Lakers were still a top team this year with the way Bynum had been playing.

So now that Riley’s recent trade history is in the books. Is Riley the idiot or is Riley the genius? I vote at this point he is a genius. He managed to score another title, and has set himself up to be leading an up and coming young team for the future of Heat basketball. If he can get a solid draft pick, and fill the missing center position the team might have a chance to run for the finals in a few years. One key to Riley’s future with the Heat, will be Miami’s success or failure next year. If they miss the playoffs, he could be out a job. The Lakers were able to depart with Shaq and only miss the playoffs once (in the difficult west). Can Riley do the same for Miami?

Are the 2008 Cavs just a reincarnation of the 2001 Sixers?

Dr. Anklesnap

Lebron’s 2008 Cleveland Cavaliers and Allen Iverson’s 2001 Philadelphia 76er’s have more in common than just captain Eric Snow. I’ll get to that in a minute though, for now I must say Cav’s GM Danny Ferry took a big risk before this year’s trade deadline, breaking up a group that just last year rallied to the NBA Finals. Obviously the road to the finals has gotten much tougher in the East this year with the off season trades and signings that created the juggernaut “Big Three” in Celtic nation, however the move Danny Ferry made in my opinion was nothing more than shipping out scoring talent and replacing it with hustle, and athleticism. Who got shipped: Drew Gooden, Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall, Ira Newble, Shannon Brown, and Cedric Simmons. Who they got in return: Joe Smith, Ben Wallace, Delonte West, and Wally Szerbiak. However, given Cav’s coach Mike Brown’s penchant for defense, it doesn’t surprise me that Ferry had the support of the Coaching staff on this one.

A lot of you may say, ‘hustle, defense, and athleticism, what’s wrong with that?’ And on some days in the month of May, I might even say you were correct given the grind it out style of play in the NBA playoffs. Every possession feels like double the value of a possession in the regular season. However, I would only agree with you if I hadn’t been a rabid NBA fan for much of my life and had no memory of Allen Iverson and the 76’ers legendary run in the 2001 NBA playoffs, that ended in a huge fan let down and subsequent Sixer’s drubbing by the high powered LA Lakers who were anchored by the perfect mix of scoring talent and role players.

What is the perfect mix for a championship team? See 2000-2001 Lakers team roster.

Every NBA analyst, Coach, and GM knows that throughout history virtually every NBA champion had at least two legitimate superstar scoring options, whom on any given possession could create their own shot. Think Michael and Scottie, Shaq and Kobe, Magic and Kareem, Shaq and Wade, even the trio of Rasheed/Billups/Hamilton qualify.

Since Ferry didn’t have enough valuable assets at his disposal to pull off a blockbuster trade to get Lebron a second legitimate superstar scoring option to draw some defensive attention away from King James, he is taking a page out of the former Sixer’s GM Billy King’s book. The theory I’m referring to is to surround your franchise scoring machine with highly attainable role players who are very unselfish, defensive minded, rebounding/shot blocking machines. Why are they so attainable? Because of their obvious inability to put the ball in the basket.

Don’t believe me…. let’s do a couple of quick comparisons. The Cavs utilitarian Ben Wallace (08) or the “Big Z” Zydrunas Ilgauskas can pretty much equate to what the Sixer’s got out of the timeless wonder Dikembe Mutumbo (01) in rebounding and shot blocking. Defensive minded, veteran leader Eric Snow is quite obvious as he was on both rosters in question (although he hasn’t got much court time in regular season, don’t be surprised to see him emerge in the post-season as a Mike Brown favorite in the rotation). Regardless, the Cavs current point guard of choice, Delonte West, brings similar tools to the table as Eric Snow in 2001 aside from some added jump shooting abilities. How about the wingmen? Iverson had Aaron McKie and George Lynch; and sure enough Lebron has similar specialists in Daniel Gibson and Wally Szerbiak. We all know with only one legitimate scoring option the superstar must put up a lot of shots, and I guess so did Billy King, as he brought in the likes of Mutumbo, Hill, and Lynch to crash the boards with reckless abandon, in the same way Danny Ferry has charged Big Ben, Big Z, and Joe Smith with the task of cleanup crew.

Still wondering about the 2001 Sixers to 2008 Cavs comparison? Here are the tangibles…

FOCAL POINT COMPARISON:

	PPG	FG %	3P %	Assists	Rebounds	Steals
Iverson (01)	31.1	42	32	4.6	3.8	2.5
Lebron(08)	30.7	48	31	7.3	8.1	1.8

SUPORTING CAST COMPARISON:

	PPG	FG %	Rebounds	Assists	Blocks	Steals
Mutumbo (01)	11.7	49	12	0.8	2.5	0.35
Ilgauskas (08)	13.5	48	10	1.4	1.7	0.43
McKie (01)	11.6	47	4.1	5	0.11	1.3
Gibson (08)	11.4	46	2.5	2.5	0.24	0.9
Hill (01)	9.6	47	9	0.6	0.4	0.5
Wallace (08)	5.1	40	8.7	0.6	1.4	0.8
E. Snow (01)	9.8	41	3.3	7.4	0.14	1.5
D. West (08)	9.0	41	3.6	4.5	0.76	0.83

Well enough with the numbers already, huh?

I’m not really much of a numbers guy anyway, as I like to look at the intangibles a player can bring to the table. And although I think GM Danny Ferry this year is making the same mistakes with the Cavaliers that Billy King made with the 76ers in 2001, because of Lebron’s proven leadership qualities and ability to defy the odds every playoff game he was in last year, I definitely wouldn’t feel comfortable betting against him.

I realize some of you out there may say, “what’s wrong with an NBA Finals appearance?”, well the answer is nothing. But if you want the real answer, go ask Allen Iverson or Lebron James if they are satisfied with their NBA Finals appearances…

In the mean time, my advice to Danny Ferry is simple, take less advice from ex-GM Billy King, and wherever possible take more advice from Celtics GM Danny Ainge, Suns GM Steve Kerr, Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak, and San Antonio GM R.C. Buford.

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