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Who Will Get the Last #1 Seed for March Madness?

 

March 8, 2011 – Allen Moll

As the NCAA regular season winds down and Conference Tourney week heats up, we have been treated to one of the most wildest, wackiest, yet oddly entertaining seasons of college basketball we have seen in some time. With no clear cut #1 team for most of the season, a number of squads have gone on some pretty impressive runs to rank as the #1 overall team in the land like Duke, Kansas, Ohio St, and Texas.

But being the top dog has proved to be an unenviable position this season, as outside of Duke’s early reign and the Buckeyes steady play late, it appears as if any team ranked within the Top 25 (or just beyond) is capable on any given night to be able to knock off this week’s #1. Whether it’s parity or a plethora of good teams, it really doesn’t matter since is undoubtedly entertaining basketball.

With Kansas (Big 12), Ohio State (Big 10) and Pitt (Big East) all winning their regular season conference crowns outright, their fans should rest assure that their squads will be #1 seeds come Selection Sunday. But who is deserving of the 4th #1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament?

Here are my favorites to get the final #1 seed for March Madness:

1) BYU

28-4(14-2 MWC)

#3 National Ranking

Best Player: Jimmer Fredette(27.9 ppg, 4.3 ast, 3.5 reb, 1.5 stl, 40% 3PT)

Forget all of that nonsense about the Cougars’ lack of competition from playing in the Mountain West Conference. By the numbers, they finished the regular season ranked as playing the #1 toughest schedule in the country and 4th in RPI. They have star power in everyone’s favorite for NCAA POY candidate in Jimmer Fredette, who just happens to be the nation’s leading scorer. Contrary to popular belief, they are not a one man team with the likes of Jackson Emery and Noah Hartsock still on the roster. Because of a lack of TV exposure, most still won’t take them seriously even though any team is at risk of being Jimmered (40 pts) on any given night. The dismissal of leading rebounder Brandon Davies will hurt but in my opinion they are still an Elite 8 or Final 4 darkhorse. But do they have enough to beat OSU, Kansas, or even Duke in consecutive games. I doubt it.

2) Notre Dame

25-5(14-4 Big East)

#8 National Ranking

Best Player: Ben Hansborough(18.5 ppg, 4.2 ast, 3.8 reb, 1.3 stl, 45% 3PT)

The Fightin Irish are arguably one of the nation’s hottest teams (11-1 over last 12 games) heading into the Big East Tournament. A late loss to West Virginia may have cost them a chance at the Big East regular season but don’t sleep on Coach Brey’s well coached group who downright surprised everyone by finishing only 1 game behind pre-season favorite Pitt in the regular season standings. They have arguably the best core of talented back-court sharpshooters in the nation, led by Tyler Hansborough’s little brother Ben. He wears his heart on his sleave as he will tell you just how he’s feeling after reigning threes in bunches on your favorite squad while his teammates play some of the best brand of defense you will see in all of the country. Junior big man Tim Abromaitis(15.5 ppg, 6.2 reb, 43% 3PT) is equally as potent from either behind the arc or inside the paint. While they aren’t the sheek choice, they played a tough Big East schedule and rightfully so, may get a sniff of that 4th #1 seed if they can somehow make a major run in the Big East Tourney.

3) Duke

27-4(13-3 ACC)

#4 National Ranking

Best Player: Nolan Smith(21.6 ppg, 5.2 ast, 4.8 reb, 1.3 stl, 36% 3 PT)

Before that big time loss to the UNC Tarheels on the last day of the regular season to give Carolina a surprising outright regular season ACC crown, Coach K’s Blue Devils were probably the favorites to get the final #1 seed. But after their inconsistent front-line(Plumlee, Kelly, Plumlee) once again got outplayed by Carolina’s bigs(Henson, Zeller), many are questioning just how good Duke really is. Have they been given an unfair advantage by playing in a mediocre ACC this season or are they an elite squad just like the other Top 5 teams? I think their somewhere in the middle just like other good but not great teams like Texas, ND, BYU, etc. The loss of freshman PG Kyrie Irving after only one month of play has undoubtedly made them vulnerable since, with the freshman phenom, I’ll argue with anyone that they may have had an excellent shot at going undefeated this season. While he has supposedly been cleared to “resume some basketball activities” I seriously doubt he will return to games this season.

4) Texas

25-6(13-3 Big 12)

#7 National Ranking

Best Player: Jordan Hamilton(18.5 ppg, 7.6 reb, 40% 3PT)

All of us, myself included, thought that the Longhorns were going to finish the year strong after beating Kansas and grabbing the top spot in the polls in late January. But things aren’t always what they seem since they struggled mightily over the final two weeks of the season, going a pedestrian 2-3 over their final 5 games. They still have one of the nation’s best scorers in sophomore Jordan Hamilton, who has struggled with shot selection as of late, and an absolute beast down low in the form of freshman Tristian Thompson(13.5 ppg, 7.7 reb, 2.3 blk), who is such a diamond in the rough that he is getting some 1st round buzz in the 2011 NBA Mock Drafts. If they get their **it together and win the Big 12 Tourney, look for the Longhorns to be playing a #16 seed in the opening round of March Madness.

5) Purdue

25-6(14-4 Big Ten)

#6 National Ranking

Best Player: JuJuan Johnson(20.5 ppg, 8.1 reb, 2.4 blk)

Even though the Boilermakers basically crapped the bed by losing to the unranked Hawkeyes this past week and losing out on a share of the Big Ten crown, don’t count out Purdue when looking at a potential #1 seed in the NCAA Tourney. They have the pedigree (25+ wins) and if you’ve seen them they pass the “eye test” in addition to finishing  only 1 game back in the win column of the mighty Buckeyes in the regular season. I absolutely love JuJuan Johnson’s length against opposing bigs in the “Big Dance” and E’Twuan Moore(18.3 ppg) is as underrated a scorer as you will see in all of college basketball. They play outstanding defense and could be a sleeper to go deep in March even without the services of the now twice injured Robbie Hummel.

In a year with so much parity and seemingly upwards of 10-15 teams capable of going on a significant run this March is grabbing a #1 seed really that important? All I know is that I’d rather have it than not. Who’s your favorite?

Allen Moll has been a lifelong NBA and NCAA College Basketball fan who watches and studies games religiously, and coaches youth basketball in his native Lehigh Valley region of Pennsylvania.  Allen also provides content to Bleacherreport.com, Upperdeckblog.com, in addition to being a tenured NBA and NCAA columnist for TheHoopDoctors.com.

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