If the New York Knicks, winners of just 17 games last season, make the 2016 NBA playoffs, plenty of people will be shocked.
ESPN NBA analysts Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy will not be among those people.
Nor, for the record, will I. The Knicks are going to have a much-improved defense, and Carmelo Anthony, provided he remains healthy, still has all the tools to carry them toward respectability on the offensive end; even last year, when the team was utterly awful, New York ran the equivalent of a top-10 point-piling attack when Melo was on the floor per NBA.com.
But this isn’t about me, or about my feelings that could come back to haunt me a few months down the line. This about Jackson and Van Gundy.
Both former coaches believe the Knicks, even amid an increasingly crowded Eastern Conference middle class, can complete for a playoff spot this season, in large part because of Melo and, shockingly-but-at-the-same-time-not-so-much, rookie Kristaps Porzingis.
From the New York Daily News‘ Stefan Bondy:
ESPN analysts Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson like Porzingis and think the Knicks have a shot at the playoffs pic.twitter.com/PiDPqQKDVC
— Stefan Bondy (@SBondyNYDN) October 26, 2015
These are fair assertions. The Knicks were a tire fire last season, and their offense is still outdated. They still take entirely too many mid-range jumpers, and head coach Derek Fisher’s willingness to diverge from Phil Jackson’s triangle offense, specifically to incorporate more pick-and-rolls, remains unclear; the Knicks ran a ton more pick-and-rolls to end last season and during the Las Vegas Summer League, and their preseason sample suggests they’re prepared to play faster, but until that open-ended mindset translates into games that matter, this shift in play style is not guaranteed.
Still, the Eastern Conference remains wide-open. The Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards, Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls are, assuming health, all assured of making the playoffs. Beyond that, the final three seeds should be up for grabs.
The Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks, while perhaps overrated at this point, could be looped into that conversation as well, which would mean that the Knicks will be chasing only one available slot. And if that ends up being the case, they’ll need to beat out the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics, as well as the Indiana Pacers and Charlotte Hornets, though the latter two aren’t in the same area code as the moment as the former two.
Is that doable? It’s tough to say, especially because the year isn’t yet underway. But if the Knicks’ defensive integrity can leak into the regular season, they have the foundation of a low-level playoff team. From there, only a few things would need to break right on the offensive end, most notably the health of Melo, before they emerge, against most odds, as that legitimate postseason candidate.
