The NBA doesn’t expect to see its salary-cap projections for this year or next year change by considerable margins.
In a memo it sent to teams, the financial forecasts for the next two seasons remained largely the same, per Basketball Insiders’ Eric Pincus:
In a memo to teams, the NBA has NOT changed it's preseason salary cap projection, it remains at $101 mil for 2018-19 and 108 mil for 2019-20. Tax at $123 mil and $131 mil, respectively. Typically, there's variance in the pre/post projection but not this year
— Eric Pincus (@EricPincus) April 16, 2018
Some other food for thought as well:
Additionally, the players project to have earned $20 million more than their share of basketball related income. The NBA will recoup that $ from escrow (the 10% that's withheld all year from player checks)
— Eric Pincus (@EricPincus) April 16, 2018
The NBA’s actual salary cap can still change. If, for example, their postseason revenue doesn’t meet its intended benchmark, the final number for 2018 could feasibly dip below $101 million. But projections at this stage in the game, in the middle of April, are usually pretty accurate.
This will then mark the first summer in which the league isn’t being treated to a sizable jump following the infusion of TV money. This year’s cap sat at around $99.1 million; the latest forecast represents a sub-$2 million jump.
Teams will take it, though. They weren’t left hoping for another huge leap after what happened last year. The cap came in noticeably below projections, which made some of the deals handed out in 2016 look that much worse. Many of those contracts won’t look any better now, particularly if they have two years left on them. But a smaller-than-expected increase could have thrown off plans for teams looking to avoid the tax (projected to be at $123 million for now) or squeeze every ounce of cap space out of its roster in time for free agency.
Color the Golden State Warriors as one team that’ll be thankful just to see the NBA meets its $101 million threshold.
