No one saw it coming. Not the Oklahoma City Thunder, not the Houston Rockets, not David Stern himself.
And yet, here we are.
As Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports first reported, the Rockets and Thunder came to terms on a blockbuster deal that landed All-Star guard James Harden in Houston and volume scoring guard Kevin Martin in Oklahoma City.
The Thunder also received the smooth-shooting services of rookie Jeremy Lamb and a bevy of future draft picks to go along Martin.
Now, first and foremost, Oklahoma City moving on from Harden is huge. Despite the financial repercussions of keeping him next to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, no one really saw his departure coming. Especially this soon.
But he’s gone and the team is now left to fill the void left by him with Martin, a 29-year-old scorer who has struggled to stay healthy over the past five years.
That said, when he’s been healthy, he has been nothing short of effective on the offensive end. In 40 games last season, Martin averaged 17.1 points and shot a respectable 34.7 percent from beyond the arc.
But is he a good fit in Oklahoma City? Or better yet, is he a worthy replacement for Harden?
One is immediately inclined to say no. Harden boasts a more complete skill set that saw him average 16.7 points, 4.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game last season. He’s also equipped to run the point and, while he’s anything but a premiere defender, he makes more of an impact on that side of the ball than Martin could ever hope to make.
So no, Martin isn’t a better fit for the Thunder than Harden was, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a good fit.
When playing alongside perpetual slashers like Durant and Westbrook, you want to ensure you have plenty of skilled spot-up shooters to help stretch defenses. Martin shot 44 percent when he was between 16-23 feet away from the basket last season, compared to Harden’s conversion rate of just 38 percent. Their three-point percentage was also similar, with Harden draining just over two percent more of his attempts from Martin.
Which means in that regard, Martin is at least comparable, if not better, than Harden.
Yet here’s the thing, Oklahoma City’s newest shooting guard is due almost $13 million this season and is set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. So, regardless of how the stats stack up or how he fairs this season, the reality is he may be on his way out anyway.
The Thunder were willing to play with fire in the form of luxury tax penalties when it came to Harden, but will they be liable to pay Martin an eight-figure annual salary as well? Or will he be willing to take a pay cut to stay in Oklahoma City and contend for a championship?
It’s far too early to tell, yet at the same time, there is a strong possibility that Martin winds up being a temporary fix. After all, though it’s still early, it’s hard too imagine Oklahoma City being as financially frivolous when the end-result isn’t retaining Harden.
Which would mean that perhaps we’re asking the wrong question. Because Martin can replace Harden’s scoring; he is a good fit for the Thunder.
Whether or not he’ll be a long-term fit, a permanent fixture, though, remains to be seen.
Dan Favale is a firm believer in the three-pointer as well as the notion that defense doesn’t always win championships. His musings can be found at Bleacherreport.com in addition to TheHoopDoctors.com. Follow @danfavale on Twitter for his latest posts and all things NBA.
