Surely every college basketball fan right now is in the midst of grabbing any sort of statistical and informative tidbits about all 68 teams involved in this year’s NCAA Tournament, in hopes of gaining an advantage in getting the most picks right in your office bracket pool. We here at the HoopDoctors.com have even made it easier for you by making our very own printable HoopDoctors NCAA Tournament bracket.
By the numbers, the #5 vs #12 game has produced the most entertaining upsets. In fact, since the field went to the 65 team format in 1985, the #5 seed has won only 66% of their First Round games. That means that every year, 1 or 2 of those #12 seeds are going to pull of some sweet upsets. Mark it down.
But in 2011, which #12 seeds are the most likely to cause some March Madness? Will it be Utah State, Richmond, Memphis, or the winner of the UAB/Clemson “First Four” game on Tuesday?
East Region
#5 West Virginia vs #12 Clemson/UAB
For argument’s purposes, Clemson should make easy work of UAB out of Conference USA simply because, the Blazers are arguably one of the few teams that many felt didn’t even deserve to be in the final field of 68 since they didn’t fare very well against Top 50 opponents and lost to a number of teams that are already in. Clemson played in a better ACC(albeit in a down year), have better coaching, better overall roster, and play a style of defense that’s favorable in the post-season.
As for the actual 5/12 match-up, it should be a real barn-burner, defensive minded contest with both teams struggling to score 60+ points. West Virginia has the coaching edge in probable Hall of Fame coach Bob Huggins over first year man Brad Brownell. The Mountaineers won 20 games(11-7 in conference) in the tough Big East but were widely inconsistent all season. At times they looked like one of the top squads in the conference and other times undisciplined and confused and were marred by a few suspensions and players leaving the program. They are led offensively by the streaky sharpshooter Casey Mitchell(14.1ppg), Kevin Jones(13.1ppg and 7.4reb) who also is one of the nation’s best defenders, and PG Darryl “Truck” Bryant(10.9ppg, 3.1 ast). Production down low comes mostly from imposing Turkish native Deniz Kilicli(6.5ppg, 4.1 reb), who at 6’9 and 270lbs, is as physical a big man you will find in the Tournament. They also get outstanding production from the athletic 6’7 John Flowers(9.6ppg, 6.4 reb) at the SF position.
Clemson finished 4th in the ACC with a 9-7 mark, in addition to winning 21 games overall. After losing a tight overtime contest to UNC in the ACC Semi’s on Saturday, energy may be the key concern for the Tigers since they will have the least amount of rest of any squad in the Tourney. If they get past the NCAA’s leading assist man Aaron Johnson and the UAB Blazers on Tuesday, they face a quick turnaround for a 5/12 tilt with the Mountaineers. The Tigers are led by a pair of seniors in guard Demontez Stitt(14.7ppg, 4.4 reb, 3.4 ast) and big man Jerai Grant(12.1ppg, 6.1 reb, 2.4 blk), along with junior PG Andre Young(10.8ppg, 3 ast).
Keeping in mind that this is not the same WVU team that advanced to the Final Four last season after losing 2 star players to the NBA, they are a tough minded collection of players that can be widely inconsistent and struggle to score points. Mitchell can be a tough cover if he’s on his game and Kilicli scores on an ugly, yet nearly indefense-able array of hook shots. For Clemson, Stitt can be a tremendous all-around player capable of big things and big time shot-blocker Grant has game-changing ability on the defensive end. In the end, I think the Mountaineers are actually seeded a bit too high and will struggle to score against Clemson. Grant will make a major impact down low and force WVU into too many jump shots.
Prediction: Clemson 65, West Virginia 62
Upset – YES
West Region
#5 Arizona vs #12 Memphis
When coach Sen Miller was hired away from Xavier 2 seasons ago, he set out to make the Wildcats once again one of the elite programs in the country. He’s well ahead of schedule by leading the Cats to the regular season PAC-10 Title and a last second loss in the Finals to Washington in the conference tourney. The main reason behind their resurgence is National POY candidate and 2 time PAC-10 POY Derrick Williams(19.1ppg, 8.1 reb, 60% 3PT) who is as tough a cover as there is as a front-court player in all of college basketball. They also get outstanding production from Lamont “MoMo” Jones(9.6ppg, 2.4 ast) and Kyle Fogg(8.3ppg, 2.6 ast) in the backcourt.
Memphis(25-9), coached by one of the brightest young coaches in the country in Josh Pastner, started off strong but struggled down the stretch, before running the table in the Conference USA Tournament. They are mostly a young group led in scoring by two freshmen in SG Will “The Thrill” Barton(12.3ppg, 5 reb) and PG Joe Jackson(9.9ppg, 3.1 ast) along with junior Wes Witherspoon(9ppg, 3 reb) and ultra athletic Will Coleman(7ppg, 4.3 reb) in the front-court.
Arizona is just too talented and way more experienced to fall to the upstart Memphis Tigers. If this is next season, Memphis may have had a better shot but unfortunately it’s 2011 and Arizona is one of the dark-horse favorites to make a Final Four run. In my opinion, the Wildcats are seeded a bit low and will take it personally as their star player Williams will be a tough cover for the Memphis front-court. He gets to the free throw line as well as anyone in the nation and their perimeter shooting can be lethal.
Prediction: Arizona 77, Memphis 65
Upset – NO
Southwest Region
#5 Vanderbilt vs #12 Richmond
The Vanderbilt Commodores(23-10) seemingly are overlooked every year in the SEC behind perennial powerhouses Kentucky, Florida, and sometimes even Tennessee. True to form, this season the Dores finished 3rd in the conference behind some excellent coaching from longtime head man Gene Stallings. They also seem to get some tough draws when it comes to NCAA Tournament seedings, hence they never really go very far in the Tourney. They are led by the SEC’s leading scorer John Jenkins(19.5ppg, 40% 3PT) who can fill it up with the best of them. Brad Tinsley(10.6ppg, 4.5 ast) is an excellent floor general. Small forward Jeff Taylor(15.1ppg, 5.4 reb) is a future NBA pro and big man Festus Ezeli(12.8ppg, 6.2 reb, 2.6 blk) is arguably the most improved frontcourt player in the nation. Lance Goulborne(6.9ppg, 7.3) is an excellent rebounder and Steve Tchiengang(4.8ppg, 3 reb) provides a spark off the bench.
While the A-10 Conference was down as a whole, the Richmond Spiders(27-7, 13-3), along with Temple and Xavier made the NCAA Tournament field. They won 11 of their final 12 games, including an impressive run to take home the A-10 Conference Tourney crown. They are a senior laden squad that has been to the Big Dance before. Senior leaders Kevin Anderson(16.5ppg, 43% 3PT) and Justin Harper(17.9ppg, 7 reb, 1.3 blk) have their future sites on the NBA. While big man Dan Geriot(9.9ppg, 42% 3PT, 3 ast) is a sharpshooting big man that excels in finding the open man.
Richmond has upwards of 5 players that can shoot the rock from three and have an excellent inside outside tandem with Anderson and Harper. Despite having a very talented squad, Vanderbilt has been up and down all season, losing 6 out of 10 games against ranked opponents. the Commodores also tend to have a short history when it comes to advancing in the Tournament(losing in the 1st Round in ’08 and ’10 as a #4 seed) while Richmond has won a 1st Round game in 4 out of their last 6 Tournaments, including one of the biggest upsets in Tourney history, when they beat #2 Syracuse as a #15 seed in 1991.
Prediction: Richmond 82, Vanderbilt 80
Upset – YES
Southeast Region
#5 Kansas State vs #12 Utah State
Coach Frank Martin’s Wildcats(22-10, 9-6 Big 12) have appeared to have finally righted the ship. After struggling mightily early, they finished the year winning 8 of their last 9 games before losing in the 1st Round of the Big 12 Tournament. The team has been marred by injuries, scandals, and insubordination but have shown lately the talent that made them a pre-season Top 10 team. The Cats are lead by senior leader Jacob Pullen(19.5ppg, 3.7 ast) and sophomore Rodney McGruder(11.4ppg, 6 reb) in the backcourt and Curtis Kelly(10.3ppg, 5.3 reb, 1.4 blk) and Jamar Samuels(8.6ppg, 5.3 reb).
Stew Merrill has helped put the Aggies(30-3)on the basketball map by leading them to their 11th straight 23 win season, making them 1 of only 3 programs in Division I to accomplish that feat(along with Gonzaga and Kansas). He has led them to the post-season every year at the WAC school including this season as they won the WAC Tourney. They may have qualified as an at-large team behind an impressive resume including 30 wins and a 15-1 league mark. They are led by one of the best players most don’t know about in forward Taj Wesley(14.7ppg, 8 reb, 1.1 blk), who has the ability to take over games. His supporting cast is led by an outstanding trio of high scoring wings Brockeith Pane(11.6ppg), Brian Green(10.6ppg), and Pooh Williams(8.4ppg), along with junior rebounder Brady Jardine(7.5ppg, 7.1 reb).
While Utah State may be the sheek pick as the most probably 5/12 upset pick, I’m not completely sold. It’s certainly possible since the Aggies have secretly been one of the very best mid-major programs over the past 10 seasons but I think they are catching the Wildcats at precisely the wrong time as Kansas State is playing their best basketball of the season, which is a bad thing for the rest of the field. Should be a tight contest.
Prediction: Kansas State 80, Utah State 79
Upset – NO
Allen Moll has been a lifelong NBA and NCAA College Basketball fan who watches and studies games religiously, and coaches youth basketball in his native Lehigh Valley region of Pennsylvania. Allen also provides content to Bleacherreport.com, Upperdeckblog.com, in addition to being a tenured NBA and NCAA columnist for TheHoopDoctors.com.
