Robert Fung is an avid basketball fan, a 10+ year fantasy NBA veteran, and the Basketball Team Lead on Rotokingdom.net. Chicago born and raised, he grew up with the Michael Jordan era and continues to root for the Bulls.
You can go through your draft and try to get last year’s production/stats, or you can target players that will improve. Here are some potential breakout players that were on fantasy rosters for much of last season, but will have even more value next season.
Devin Harris –
Harris had a huge breakout following the trade from DAL, and played his first full season as the starting NJN floor general last year. His playing time increased, and so did his points, 3s, assists, steals, and even rebounds. Trading RJ to MIL also opened up a lot of the offense to Harris, as well, and he consequently saw an increase in 3 FGA/gm, 4 FTA/gm and 5 ppg. Now that NJN has traded away all-star Vince Carter, Harris will be fully strapped into the driver’s seat. He will lead the team in at least ppg, apg, and spg, and his rise to stardom will continue.
Mike Conley –
Conley has been stuck in a timeshare since he was drafted. MEM finally traded away Lowry mid-season last year, and Conley responded by adding +5.5 pts, +2 asst, +0.5 reb, +0.9 stl, +trey, +4/4%, +9 min to his numbers. He was all set to take on full-time starter’s responsibilities, but MEM went and signed ex-all-star Allen Iverson. AI will clearly be the backup to both backcourt positions, so Conley will still see an increase in mpg from last season’s average, but Conley is no longer a clear lock for 36+ mpg. Also, AI (and other new acquisition Zach Randolph) likes to get his shot off and dominate the ball. So, an increase in Conley’s numbers is expected, maybe not much better than his post-ASB numbers, but still much better than any other season.
Spencer Hawes –
Hawes basically doubled everything from his rookie year to his soph year. Also, post-ASB, he posted increases of +4 pts, +2 reb, +1 asst, +7 FG%, +6 min. He has literally no competition for the middle, as the next best candidate (Jason Thompson) is probably their starting PF. Hawes has good potential for an all-around line that is only held back by his FT%. His scoring may not make as big a jump, because SAC’s new rookie, Tyreke Evans, is expected to share the scoring load. However, look for Hawes to edge closer to the steal-block-trey club with nearly a double double.
JR Smith –
One of JR Smith’s biggest faults is his ego and immaturity. That still needs some work. He’ll be in a better situation next year, and, as long as he keeps his head in check, he could be great. DEN lost Dahntay Jones, who was the starter and sucked up 18 mpg, as well as fellow perimeter swingman, Linas Kleiza, who was a reserve but got 22 mpg (to be fair, some of that time was at SF). DEN did bring in Arron Afflalo, who is a Bruin with untapped potential, but Afflalo definitely won’t get 40 mpg. So, JR will at least see his playing time increase, and is the frontrunner for the starting spot, pending suspension. In 18 starter games, he averaged +3 pts, +1.3 reb, +0.6 asst, +0.4 stl, +9 min.
Joakim Noah –
Noah is also a young kid ready to make his mark. His mpg went up from 21 pre-ASB to 29 post-ASB to 38 during the playoffs. The Bulls did play lots of OT games in the playoffs, but Noah decisively took the job from Brad Miller. Also, even though the Bulls made some noise in the first round, they’re still gathering experience for later playoff runs and are likely to continue developing their young talent, which includes Noah. Nobody else comes close to 8 rpg, so expect Noah to get the lion’s share of rebounds. He could be a good source of blocks, and even a handful of points or close to a double double.
Rodney Stuckey –
Chauncey Billups, a solid playmaker, was traded for Allen Iverson, a solid scoring combo guard. This gave Stuckey the starting point guard gig. Now, Allen Iverson has left town, and DET brought in Ben Gordon, who is clearly a SG and not a PG, which leaves only Will Bynum, who has only commanded 14 mpg at most. In March, Iverson was on the bench, and Stuckey saw an increase of 3-5 mpg and added to his stats. In April, Stuckey’s mpg went back down, but they didn’t really have as much to play for and got swept in the first round of the playoffs. Stuckey has proven he can score (17 ppg in JAN) and pass (6 apg in DEC), but he just needs to put it all together. Stuckey is the future leader of the team, and DET is giving him plenty of chances in a balanced offense with less veteran hand-holding.
Aaron Brooks –
Brooks now has 2 rounds of playoff experience, and half a year of starter’s experience. He’s shown decent potential with 13-4-2-steal-2 trey in 35 games starting last year. This year, he’ll have the reigns from the get-go, and even more so with both all-stars Yao and TMac in street clothes. TMac may return early and will return sometime this year, but not before Brooks gets a chance to run the show. Once Brooks gets confidence under his legs, he could take off (see the 34 point playoff explosion capping off 4 games of 20+ scoring). He isn’t a great playmaker, but he can hit from the perimeter, can get to the line, and will most certainly have at least 3-5 more FGA/gm.
Luis Scola –
Scola is, arguably, the second best active Rocket. He had a great 20-7 run in the FIBA championships, and there’s no depth and no proven talent in the Rockets frontcourt. Scola isn’t a great rebounder, but he’s still pretty good with about 12 boards per 36 min. Add in the offensive ability of Scola and offensive inability of much of the rest of the roster, and this could be the double double year we were looking for last year. To be fair, he did have a nice increase in points and boards from 2 years ago, but he may still have more to showcase. He’s not great on the defensive end, but he could be a poor man’s Boozer.
