May 5th, 2008 – Dr. Browntorious
Before the playoffs began, everyone was predicting that either Detroit or Boston was coming out of the East, and any one of Phoenix, San Antonio, New Orleans or LA would win the West. As the second round of the playoffs begin, now what are people thinking?
Who would have thought that Atlanta could take Boston to a game seven? A 37-win team pushing a 66-win team to the limit. Had this ended badly for the Celts, this could have been the biggest upset in NBA history. I think what this really showed was a bit of over-confidence and a lack of urgency from the Celtics. With that said, what about Detroit losing two games to Philadelphia? Or Cleveland going six games with Washington. At the current rate the East is going, they will have beaten the hell out of each other by the time one of the teams is ready to face off with the West in the NBA Finals.
At the moment I still favour Boston to come out of the East, however after seeing the first round match-ups unfold, below is now how I’m ranking the teams in the East and my predictions on where they will finish:
1) Boston Celtics. Although they seem to only come together when it mattered most and really coasted in the first round, their bench has tightened up as of late. At the end of the day, they still have KG, Pierce and Ray Allen. In Round 2 they will all have to share the responsibility of guarding Lebron James, considering James pretty much attacks from every position. I predict Boston in 7. If they beat Cleveland, I predict they will handily beat the winner of Orlando vs. Detroit in 5.
2) Cleveland. Most people are going to bark at me for putting them ahead of Detroit, but I am doing this for one reason; Lebron James. Lebron is a freak of nature, he single handedly beat Detroit last year in the playoffs, not to mention doing the same to Boston in the regular season this year. Lebron is playing probably the best basketball of his life right now, not to mention this year he has Big Ben and Ilgauskas defending behind him, and both are active on the boards. Wally Szcerbiak has really come on strong in the latter half of Round 1, and Daniel ‘Boobie’ Gibson has once again resumed his solid playoff shooting from last year. Cleveland has a remote shot at beating Boston, but this is where home court advantage comes into play, where I’m sticking with a prediction of Boston in 7. If they do beat Boston, I predict they win the Conference Finals again.
3) Detroit. Detroit was not able to defeat Cleveland last year because of one man, James. Lucky for them, Dwight Howard is a beast, but he is no James. Detroit struggled against Philly, but in there last 3 games they seem to really have pulled it together, playing Deeetroit Baaasketball. The point guards should be the keys to this series as Jameer Nelson is much too small to guard the bigger, more athletic Chauncey Billups. I predict Detroit in 5.
4) Orlando. Dwight is amazing and Turkoglu really did his thing this year, but lets face it they struggled to grind out the win in each game against the Raptors in the first round. And the Raps are no Detroit Pistons. The first round in the East should have been a joke to Boston and Detroit given the record differentials with their opponents from the regular season. Orlando lacks the experience and the talent to make it past Detroit. Jameer Nelson and Carlos Arroyo are just not enough in the backcourt to compete against Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton.
In the Western Conference, I really only see 3 teams with a possibility of making it to the finals. New Orleans, San Antonio, or LA. Utah has a very talented team, but they have severe match-up problems against the Lakers and I doubt they will be able to grind out more than one win in that series. Below is how I rank the remainder of the West.
1) LA Lakers. Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and all their role players are playing at a very high level right now. They’ve won 9 games in a row and have a legitimate shot to sweep Utah given the match-up problems for the Jazz. Sure, in the first game they were beat on the boards, but when you have two 7 footers in your starting line up, this won’t happen for long. I’m predicting LA in four or five against the Jazz. Then if they face New Orleans in the Conference Finals I predict LA in 6. If they play an experienced Spurs squad in the Conference Finals, I think it will go the distance to a game 7, but again the Lakers with the home court advantage should take that series as well. (Will we have a throwback NBA Finals of the Lakers vs. Celtics?)
2) New Orleans. This team has been great lately. David West has been giving it to the Spurs all year long. I’m surprised by now; Greg Poppovich hasn’t come up with one of his brilliant defensive schemes to stop West. Game 1 of the Spurs-Hornets series the other night was the third blowout the Hornets have put on the Spurs this year. If the Spurs can’t stop West they’ll be going home early. I’m predicting New Orleans in 6, then getting beat by LA in the Conference Finals.
3) San Antonio. The Spurs are a great team, but they need to find a way to stop the one-two punch of Chris Paul and David West. This series is also keyed on the point guards as the outcome may come down to the Parker-Paul match up. If they do manage to beat out New Orleans, I believe with their bench and experience they are a better opponent to match up with the Lakers and take it the distance in the Conference Finals.
4) Utah. The Jazz have a hardworking blue-collar team with Boozer and Harpring pounding the glass. And Deron Williams is a very talented point guard who reminds me of a modern day Mark Jackson. However, having Pau Gasol, Kobe Bryant, and Lamar Odom on the floor surrounded by shooters in Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton, Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmer to keep the spacing is just too hard for Utah to match up. You may see multiple games with Utah winning the battle of the boards, but they are not quick enough to play perimeter defense and at the same time try to close the gaps in the paint. Lakers should close this out in 4 or 5 games and send the Jazz to summer vacation.
