We are nearing the end of an eventful and injury riddled first round of the postseason as the four elite teams in the NBA have already advanced while the other four series are up for grabs.
We are treated to four Game 6’s over the next two days including Game 6 of the Hawks and Celtics Thursday night and Game 6 of the Raptors-Pacers, Hornets-Heat and Blazers-Clippers Friday night.
Most fans without a real dog in the fight will be rooting for all four of these series to reach a pivotal, winner-take-all Game 7 which is the most exciting event in sports, but I think most fans are going to be disappointed. in my opinion one of these four series has a good chance to reach Game 7: Hornets and Heat.
Here is why I think the Raptors, Hawks and Blazers will advance to Round 2 Thursday and Friday night.
Hawks-Celtics
Since the NBA went to a seven-game series, road teams that are up 3-2 in a given series have an overall record of 64-38, which is basically a 63% winning percentage.
This is because the team up 3-2 in a series is the superior team record wise during the season as they have home court and is usually the team who has been better in the series.
The Hawks have outscored the Celtics by 6 points in the first four games in the series with a much higher offensive rating and effective field goal percentage. They also dominated thee of the five games in the series, stymieing the Celtics offense for long stretches. The Celtics have one of the greater home crowds in the NBA, but they are limping into this game with an injured Avery Bradley and a limping Isaiah Thomas. The Hawks will escape Boston with a series victory and a rematch with the Cavaliers in Round 2.
Blazers-Clippers
The injury ravaged Clippers gave everything they had in Game 5 at home without Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, but with little depth, scoring punch and no floor general or distributor the Clippers looked lost and fell flat at the end after an impassioned start. The Blazers are the far more talented team at this point and grew a lot in Game 5, not letting the Clippers get the best of them. From a mental standpoint alone I would be surprised to see a beaten down Clippers team derive enough energy needed to win a Game 6 on the road against a better team. Lillard will dominate whomever they throw at him defensively but without Paul the Blazers should coast to a series victory.
Raptors-Pacers
The Pacers have actually shot the ball better and outscored the Raptors through five games in this series, but it feels like Game 5 in Toronto was a classic momentum swing game that will carry on into Game 6. The Raptors have played tight and nowhere as efficient or composed as they did during the regular season, turning the ball over more, missing shots they made during the season and getting out of position defensively allowing numerous open three points attempts for the Pacers. They were trailing by 12 heading into the 4th quarter of Game 5 at home and it appeared they were heading toward yet another playoff disappointment at home like in recent years but then the Pacers imploded. The Raptors found new life and escaped by a fingertip to get a huge Game 5 victory. This game felt like it may have exorcised the playoff demons that have haunted the Raptors since the Vince Carter era.
I think the superior team plays looser and will show its true colors that made them a 56-win team this season, ending the Pacers season in Indiana Friday night.
