With the NBA in lockout-mode, let’s consider what is at risk if the NBA suffers from a long lockout.
Rising Tide Floats all Boats
All that increased viewership and general interest from the Miami Heat, the joining together three All-Stars and gold medal Olympians will be mostly wasted. Like the “rising tide floats all boats” idea implied, the NBA and the Finals got a boost this season. Although it was not quite as popular as the Lakers-Celtics Finals last year, the TV numbers were good. The whole league drew more attention (and perhaps scrutiny) from the Heat situation, which has led to new issues with the labor agreement. But, no matter what, I think we can all agree that this last season was possibly the most-anticipated season since Michael Jordan’s last run with the Chicago Bulls in 1998. The problem is that most of that momentum may not survive a long, ugly lockout.
In “Labor History Stands as Dire Reminder of What Could Be Again,” Billy Hunter points out, “it took us about six or seven years to get back to where we were prior to the lockout in ’98,” Hunter said last week. “The detriment to the game is going to be significant. If there’s a yearlong lockout, the players stand to lose about $2 billion. The owners stand to lose just as much, in addition to diminishing the value of the franchise. … There may be fans, particularly in this economy, that may walk away and never come back.”
Of course the dedicated fans aren’t going anywhere—we love the game. But, those casual basketball fans could vanish for some time.
All that hot cache from last year will be swept away like Gatorade off Doc Rivers’ back.
Labor Disputes Alter Careers
If a cancelled season causes anyone to retire, that would be a huge story in itself.
But, we should also think about this: some of the best players in the league could be entering their last elite season(s). No one knows exactly. But, we do know that by the time the league plays another All-Star game, some of the game’s best may be about ready for an old-timer’s game.
Recent NBA Champion and starting point guard Jason Kidd would be 40.
Grant Hill would be 40.
Steve Nash, who has led the NBA in assists per game for five of the last seven years, will be 39. If Nash could keep up about his current pace for two years, he would be 3rd in assists All-time behind John Stockton and most likely Jason Kidd. If he misses one of those two years, Nash will likely end up 4th or 5th.
President of the Player’s Association, and a key figure in the labor dispute, Derek Fisher will be 39.
Marcus Camby will be 39, and he’s only two years or so away from being top 10 All-time in blocks.
Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett would be 37.
Tim Duncan would also be 37. But, Duncan could use the next year or two to crack into the top 10 in rebounds. With the lockout, I doubt he could do it in two years.
The recently traded Andre Miller, 37, needs a season or two to be top 10 in assists All-time.
Chauncey Billups will be 36.
Dirk Nowitzki probably has one or two more solid seasons ahead of him. But, Dirk and Jason Terry could be 35 by the time basketball resumes.
It’s the same thing for Kobe Bryant who will turn 33 in August. He could be 34 by the time we have another season.
Paul Pierce would be about 35.
Lockout Could Change MJ v Kobe Debate
Kobe, who may be 34 by the time basketball starts up again, may be affected in that if he plays the next two seasons at a high level, he’ll be chomping at Jordan’s heels for the 3rd spot in all-time scoring. Honestly, if there is no lockout and Bryant remains healthy, there is a good chance he would eventually pass Jordan on the scoring list. If Bryant only gets one more high-level season, he will barely pass Shaq and maybe even Wilt. So, in the bigger picture, it could slightly affect how we view the whole Jordan-Bryant debate.
The Great Dynasties Will Be over
As if these dynasties are not already in jeopardy right now, the great runs of the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, and the San Antonio Spurs may be over for now if there is a long lockout.
Smaller “Peace” of Lakers’ History
If Los Angeles Lakers’ forward Ron Artest is to truly capitalize, in a financial sense, on changing his name to Metta World Peace, the NBA season should start sooner rather than later. If we wait too long, some people will forget, lose interest in his name change, or perhaps just forget to buy his new jersey.
Dallas
Finally, the Dallas Mavericks win the title, and they may be denied having a legitimate chance to defend it. That does not sit well with me at all.
NFL v NBA
So far, it looks like the NFL is going to get a deal done. They are getting a deal done in a league where the financial situation for the players is much worse (than in the NBA), and for the owners it’s much better. The public will draw its own conclusions.
The Little People (Us)
Sure, the owners will be fine. The players will struggle some.
The real losers in this whole thing are you and me (the fans).
When I would normally sit down to enjoy a Lakers game, what am I gonna watch now? If there’s no game on, it’s usually just ESPN’s PTI (Pardon the Interruption), and then I leave the remote up to my wife. So what, I gonna end up watching endless hours of Glee and Teen Wolf? Then, I’m gonna have to cancel my NBA package, and we’ll probably even end up going to some L.A. Galaxy games. NBA please, c’mon, help me. Help us. Help us, help you, don’t you see how this works?
What about going to games as a special event? Find another sport.
And what about the people who work in and around the stadiums: local restaurants, businesses, street vendors, and the stadium employees? Everyone from security guards to concessions will take a hit.
So Long to Irrelevant Records
You know those “so and so became the youngest players to do whatever” records. Yeah, we can forget about those for a generation of players if we miss too much time.
Howard’s Awards Could Mean Less Historically
Orlando’s Dwight Howard could become the only player in NBA history to win 4 straight Defensive Player of the Year awards. That is only going to happen if there is a season; otherwise, there will just an asterisk. Then again, Howard already holds the current record because no one else has more than 2 consecutive DPY’s.
Right now, the debate over the NBA’s new CBA does not look good, but, as David Stern said recently, “there’s always time to make a deal.”
Rob S. De France is a College and University instructor of English Composition living in Los Angeles. He has a B.A. in English and an M.A. in Rhetoric, Composition, and Writing. De France has played, coached, and officiated competitive high school basketball in California for many years. Recently, De France, his wife, and another colleague started an internationally read magazine at Shwibly.com.
