October 16, 2008 – Dr. Anklesnap
“Rottisserie”, “Head-to-Head”, “Points”…..that’s right folks it’s Fantasy Basketball time again!! As much as I love watching NBA hoops, there is nothing that makes it that much more exciting or makes you feel more personally invested than being in a competitive Fantasy league with your boyz for bragging rights. (Just so happens with my boys we also throw in a cash bet or two and a couple cases of beer to the winner).
Now i’m certainly not claiming to be a fantasy expert or anything, but I have been fairly successful in the fantasy leagues i’ve been in up to this point. The keys are trying to find players that are highly consistent and are fairly durable as to avoid dealing with injuries. The biggest problem most fantasy team owners have is they cannot separate a player’s big name star status from a players fantasy value. In other words too many players out there will be picking the likes of Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, Tracy McGrady, and Shaquille O’Neal with their first pick in this year’s fantasy draft. I’m telling you now “STOP, DON’T DO IT!”…..well at least not in the first round anyway. That first pick is oh, so important.
Here are my choices right now for the Top 25 fantasy players to pick up regardless of the type of league you are in. Provided there are no fluke injuries on the horizon for these guys, you can count on them to flat out get it done! I know I sometimes say “in no particular order”…..but in this case please consider this a “very particular order”:
King James has been steadily increasing his statistical outputs every year, and he did that without ever having a true facilitating point guard. That is until now…enter Mo Williams. Lebron’s going to once again carry this team in virtually all statistical categories, the difference may be that his points scored and field goal percentage may actually increase even further. Fantasy monster and very durable.
Remember before the Shaquille O’Neal trade when we all were thinking how great ‘Stats’ numbers were given his comeback from micro fracture knee surgeries? Remember what happened when Shaq arrived and Amare could shift to PF and start dominating the smaller players? Well get ready for a full season of that this time. Given his high free throw shooting percentage for a big man, if he can increase his blocks slightly this year he will challenge Lebron for the most valuable Fantasy Basketball asset in the entire league.
Last year CP3 led the league in assists and steals. Add one more year of experience and a summer of practicing with some of the greatest players on earth (Team USA) and you have to figure CP3 will not only hold form but actually increase his outputs. A definite league MVP candidate, but more importantly for your fantasy team a definite fantasy MVP.
I hate to pick guys coming back to the court off of injuries this high in the draft, but I have to make an exception for Elton Brand. This guy has virtually no weakness in his game. He reminds me of a young Tim Duncan with perfect fundamentals but maybe with more of an edge. Brand has a new home and a lot of expectations to accompany his new contract. Given his character and work ethic he should be huge in points, boards, blocks, FG%, and maybe even assists depending on how the Sixers run their offense through him.
Anyone notice the chip on DWade’s shoulder throughout the Olympics? It was probably a combination of knowing he was a part of the last losing Team USA and also the fact that he has fallen into NBA obscurity after his injuries the past couple of seasons. If DWade plays like that for the Heat once again, your fantasy team can expect big things across the board.
I know a lot of you out there will assume at first glance that Kobe should be everyone’s #1 pick in all fantasy draft’s because he is the reigning MVP of the league. This is where your plan can fall apart fast. Kobe may once again sacrifice his scoring in an effort to create team unity on road to a championship aspiring run. Phil Jackson also has been rumored to be considering limiting Kobe’s minutes slightly and limiting his games played during the regular season wherever possible depending on their record to keep him fresh and healthy for the championship run. I would still pick him high, but if any of the above players are available first, I would look to them for consistency.
Just like Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh is one of the few big men in the league that actually help you at the free throw line instead of hurting you. Year in and year out Bosh is a consistent and solid fantasy contributor. Now with Jermaine O’Neal in town, Bosh should be given more freedom to roam on both ends for increased offensive boards, increased blocks, and possibly even an increase in point production since teams won’t be able to constantly double team him anymore.
The Dallas Mavericks window of opportunity for a championship is closing fast. But don’t fret fantasy heads because this is good news for Dirk on a statistical basis. The weaker the Mavericks get the more they rely on Dirk to carry the load offensively. With a weaker than usual front line, Dirk will also be relied on more heavily to do some dirty work and clear the glass when possible. A full season with Jason Kidd may else help boost Dirk’s numbers by having a point guard who can get him the ball where and when he likes it. This will be the first time since Nash left Dallas where Dirk has a point guard that is capable in this regard.
Garnett is a sure fire first round fantasy pick. His offensive numbers have dipped a bit in Boston given the strength of their team and balanced scoring attack, but they still rely on him heavily defensively for rebounding and blocks. He also is consistently high in FG and FT% , and can pass the ball well which is important for a big man playing a couple of positions.
For the past few years i’ve always considered Shawn Marion to be a guy that should get chosen either first, second, or third overall in any fantasy draft, for any type of league. The guy just gets it done in every statistical category that matters and he does it with a high efficiency, and rarely turns over the ball. Even though he put up pretty solid numbers in Miami at the end of last season after the big trade, there are still questions about how he will fair in production without Steve Nash.
If you need rebounders and you are worried about your field goal percentage for a rotisserie league then Dwight is your ‘superman’. However if you have any problems in the area of FT% you may want to look elsewhere. Last year his scoring was up and down but he was ultra consistent in rebounds, blocks, and FG%.
I really debated putting Jose as low as 12th. His across the board statistics and efficiency while starting last year were off the charts. His numbers reminded me of a young Steve Nash, but with less turnovers. Now that he has won the starting role with TJ Ford out of the picture, Calderon owners in fantasy leagues can expect his numbers to increase without having to look over his shoulder at the bench. He shoots from the field and three point range at a high percentage, is a great passer and pick pocket, and hardly ever turns the ball over. The only knock may be his untapped scoring potential given his extreme unselfishness.
Nash is still a great pick for your point guard spot, but I expect he will slip statistically a bit this season with the new half-court style of coach Terry Porter. The Suns will still be run and gun at times, but mostly off of missed shots versus missed and made shots. Nash will have less assists, points, and possibly FG% than usual, but I expect his increased scoring from beyond the arc out of the Shaq post ups will buoy his value.
If you are in a points league you may want to consider selecting Allen Iverson even before some of the players above. He’s always been and probably always be a fantasy monster given his unparalleled scoring ability and knack for getting to the free throw line. With George Karl preaching team unity and ball movement this season, Iverson may see a dip in scoring numbers but I expect his assist numbers to be higher than ever before. Always a safe fantasy choice regardless of the league type because of his durability and willingness to play through injuries at a high level.
Utah is primed for a big year, and a lot of those expectations are because of Williams. I expect his fantasy value to be at its highest this season after a stellar performance at the Olympics, Williams will no doubt be more confident in a leadership role with Utah. Williams will probably be looking to increase his already great efficiency with less turnovers per assist. His scoring and assist numbers are always there, but word is he has put a lot of time into shooting work this summer. If that translates into greater three point and field goal percentages that will bode well for fantasy owners.
Another Gilbert Arenas injury means another year of extremely high fantasy value for Caron Butler. When Arenas isn’t in the lineup I actually see Butler as a stronger fantasy pick than having Arenas himself, because of how Butler fills up the box scores in so many different areas on a consistent basis. With other key players recently facing injury troubles, the Wiz may have even more scoring burden to be placed on Butlers shoulders.
Baron Davis is always a great statistical player when he’s on the court. He’s a high assist guy, and hits a lot of field goals and threes. The problem has always been that he isn’t very durable. He is regularly injured and rarely plays more than 60 games a season. He has had a couple of solid seasons health wise under his belt, so if you are okay with taking the risk he certainly has huge fantasy value for a point guard. If you do go with Davis….to be safe i’d be sure to get a solid back-up in the next round.
Well the Pacers are going to suck again. No doubt about it. But that’s great news for fantasy owners as Danny Granger will probably take another big leap in all statistical categories. The beauty is your average fantasy owner will not pick up Granger because of lack of name recognition….”Danny who?”. Those in the know may even get away with a steal of Granger in the second round (depending on the size of your league).
Carmelo Anthony is a very solid pick in most points leagues. He’s not as consistent a pick for rotisserie leagues because in the past he has been a two trick pony. Points and Rebounds. He has had high turnover rates for his position and been inconsistent percentage wise. He adds very little value defensively as well. Given his athleticism he could be a very active shot blocker, offensive rebounder, and steals but only if he puts forth the effort. Maybe winning Gold this summer will motivate him to ‘bring it’ in all aspects of his game. He may be a guy you make a trade for early in the season if you notice his effort level is high.
Al Jefferson seems to get better from a fantasy value perspective each consecutive season. If this season is no different I would expect he will be dominating points, rebounds, FG%, and possibly even blocks for the Wolves. He’s a great all around pick for all types of leagues, but I just worry about his consistency and energy level throughout the long season if his team continues to lose.
J-Smoove got his contract. Let’s hope that translates into a happy and confident Josh Smith on the box score. In the past consistency was lacking in his fantasy value, but as the Hawks look to continue on the right path to the top of the Eastern Conference, watch for Josh to contribute more consistently as their leader in the crunch.
As we have known for years, Paul Pierce lives at the free throw line. There are few players in the league that can with stand the physical punishment he takes for a full season. But as he’s shown, he is quite durable and will be motivated to defend the Celtics title. Look for Pierce to be a solid contributor. My only concern is Doc Rivers monitoring the playing time of his stars in the weaker Eastern Conference where they are sure to be among the elite regardless.
Carlos Boozer had a great year last season, and after practicing with his teammate and floor general Deron Williams all summer in training for the Olympic Games, I expect that Boozer and Williams will have an on court connection similar to Tyson Chandler and Chris Paul. This should bode well for Boozer’s numbers across the board. Boozer’s health issues seem to be behind him as well, and given how competitive the Western Conference playoff race should be this season we can expect Sloan to lean heavily on Boozer all season long.
Roy may be someone you consider taking even earlier than other point guards listed. His numbers are sure to even better then last year, and the advantage you have with Roy is his ability to log minutes at both guard positions. My only concern at this point is we have yet to see how well Roy will gel with Oden. Certainly Oden will attract enough attention to get Roy more open looks, but how will having the big man in the middle affect Roy’s penetration game?
There are so many great players in the NBA right now its hard to believe that the Big Fundamental has fallen to 25th on the list of players you should take with your first round fantasy pick. He may have fallen even further this year if it weren’t for the fact that Manu Ginobili is going to miss a good chunk of the regular season recovering from surgery. Manu was the scoring punch on an already weak offensive team. Timmy may have to channel the 25 and 13 player from 2001 if the Spurs want to make the playoffs. If that’s the case Duncan is a great pick for points leagues, and not too bad for rotisserie either.
So is there a player you think should be on this list? If so, who should be left off in his place? Let us know in the comments section below…
