Is Dwight Howard Really a Flight Risk for the Lakers?

Never before has Howard, an unrestricted free agent, had the option of choosing where he will play. Not like this. Even when he forced his way out of Orlando, he wasn’t sent to his first destination of choice (Brooklyn Nets). For the Lakers, they’re never used to being on the receiving end of what Dwight can potentially do. Who willingly leaves the Lakers? Nobody.

But will Howard?

So much is being made of his impending free agency that is seems like a foregone conclusion that he will at least consider leaving. That much also seemed clear during his exit interview following Los Angeles’ elimination from the NBA playoffs.

“Just clear my head,” Howard told the media. “I think I deserve that right.”

That he needs to clear his head is troubling. Some will interpret it as weakness. As a sign that he’s not sure if he’s ready to play under the bright lights of Hollywood. Others will remain steadfast in their belief that he doesn’t want to play with Kobe Bryant. And some will even speculate that he doesn’t want to play under Mike D’Antoni.

Dwight on D’Antoni: “We had to sell out to whatever he wanted, whether we liked it or not”

— Dave McMenamin (@mcten) April 30, 2013

To some extent, all of that could be true. Or none of it could. Howard is openly confused. And that makes him a legitimate flight risk…for about five seconds.

There is no doubt in my mind that Howard will explore his options during free agency. That’s his right, and he’s correct in saying that he deserves it. But where is he going to go?

Take the money out of the equation for just a minute. The Lakers can offer Howard one-year and roughly $31 million more than any team in the league. That gives them an edge right there. But let’s assume it doesn’t. Where is Howard going to go?

To believe he would consider playing for the Atlanta Hawks is a joke. The franchise borders on fan-less, and rightfully so. They’ve done nothing but actively build middling factions who can’t make it past the second round of the playoffs. Relocating to Atlanta would be perceptional suicide for Howard. If he wants to win, the Hawks aren’t the team for him.

Mark Cuban and the Dallas Mavericks don’t scare me either. Dirk Nowitzki still has some fight left in those legs of his, but what does Dallas have to sell him on from there? A mediocre core and plans to eventually strike it big in free agency? That’s not enough. Or rather, it shouldn’t be. Again, we’re supposed to believe Howard wants to win. And if he wants to win, why would he sign alongside an aging superstar who, in a few years time, could leave him all alone like he was with the Orlando Magic.

The two teams that would scare me the most (if I’m the Lakers’ brass) are the Cleveland Cavaliers and Houston Rockets.

Cleveland isn’t the biggest of markets. Not even close. The Cavs have a loyal fanbase, but LeBron James felt compelled to leave. Why do they intrigue me then? Kyrie Irving. He’s the budding young point guard Howard has never played alongside. They would make quite the indomitable duo.

There’s also the Cavs’ cap room to consider. They can sign Howard this summer, and then theoretically have enough money to throw LeBron’s way in 2014. Could you just imagine?

Of course, the Lakers have a ton of financial flexibility headed their way in 2014 as well. And you know they’ll entice big names like LeBron. So even that cannot be construed as a crippling threat.

Houston is really interesting, though. Playing next to James Harden and Chandler Parsons (and Patrick Beverley!) presents a nice option. What doesn’t? Omer Asik. Howard took so long to mesh with Pau Gasol in the post only this year. He would likely fare even worse alongside an offensively-limited Asik. The Rockets could move him to the bench, but would that really make sense knowing how much Howard plays every game? No. There would be no minutes for Asik.

Those are really the only four major players for Howard aside from the Lakers. Unless he’s willing to sign a contract for a fraction of what he’s worth, it will come down to these five. And looking everywhere else, no team presents as viable an opportunity to win and grow his brand as Los Angeles does.

So is Howard really a flight risk?

No. Barring him doing something that actual flight risks (like Josh Smith) wouldn’t even do, he’s not going anywhere.