Memorial Day weekend 2016 is one that will live in infamy for Oklahoma City fans as it was the weekend their NBA Finals dreams died and their savior may have played his final games in a Thunder uniform.
The Thunder fumbled away a golden opportunity to eliminate the Warriors once and for all Saturday night in Game 6 in front of their home crowd as they had 6 turnovers from their two superstars in the final 3 minutes, and then gave away a six point lead in the second half to a rejuvenated Warriors team led by their MVP in Game 7.
Many around the NBA are giving their “hot take” on whether Durant has played his final game in an OKC uniform and where he may end up in free agency, here is mine: Durant isn’t going anywhere and it would be foolish for him to do so.
Don’t get me wrong, Durant will and should enter free agency with an open mind and will allow teams with the most potentially enticing situations and rosters to wine and dine him, more than likely choosing to meet with anywhere between three to six franchises to see what they have to offer. Those franchises will more than likely include The Wizards, Lakers, Knicks, Spurs and Celtics.
But aside from the fact that the Thunder would be able to offer an extra year of max money in any potential deal, staying put this offseason is the better option for a number of reasons.
The Cap Rise the Next Two Seasons
The cap is rising by about $20 million this upcoming season and will increase by another $20 million before the 2017-18 season before leveling out. This is a result of the NBA’s new TV deals and means that Durant would stand to make the most money by signing a two-year max deal this offseason with the ability to opt out before the 2017-18 season and sign a long-term max deal for 30% of the $108 million salary cap that will be in place starting in 2017-18.
Russell Westbrook’s Impending Free Agency
By all accounts there is no bad blood or issues between Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook personally or professionally and they seem to generally have each others back and enjoy playing together. With Westbrook being a free agent in 2017, Durant and Westbrook could make their free agency decisions together in 2017 and allow one more year to see if they can win it all before entering free agency together, if Durant signs a two-year max deal with the Thunder with an opt out option after year 1.
The Grass Isn’t Greener On The Other Side
There is no situation that currently exists that would be available this offseason that affords Durant the opportunity to be “the guy” and have another top-notch superstar next to him and compete for an NBA title. The Lakers organization is a mess and a long way from competing and basically has a rookie coach in Luke Walton. The Knicks also boast a very thin roster and one that doesn’t necessarily fit will around Durant when Carmelo and Porzingis both do some similar things. The Warriors more than likely won’t be an actual option but even if they were Durant will have a bitter taste in his mouth after giving a series in which his current team should have beaten them and he won’t want to take a backseat to the “Splash Brothers” plus it wouldn’t make basketball sense even if it is amazing on paper. The Celtics would have to do a trade with the Thunder and give away some talent to acquire Durant and don’t have an elite defensive big man or a true distributor like Westbrook to take off the pressure from Durant to create for others. Although the Wizards have the hometown appeal to Durant which mean’s something and a great point guard in John Wall, Bradley Beal has had injury issues and the current roster is very thin as a whole with a dire need for younger, athletic big men who can guard a pick and roll and defend the paint.
The only potential option that would make some sense from a basketball point of view is the San Antonio Spurs. Leonard is a perfect Scottie Pippen to Durant’s Michael Jordan and LaMarcus Aldridge provides a 3rd star who can score and dominate the glass. Add in the Spurs role players, defensive specialists and the best coach in the NBA in Gregg Popovich and that is a scary combination. At the end of the day though, the Thunder just dismantled the Spurs in the playoffs and I can’t see Durant joining his biggest rival over the past five years.
What Will Happen
I think Durant will use the first week or so of free agency to legitimately hear out what he deems to be his best suitors after meeting with Thunder brass. He will take some time to ponder all of his options before deciding to sign a two-year max extension to stay in Oklahoma City and do this all over again in 2017 along with Russell Westbrook.
That would be the smartest outcome for Durant and the best outcome for the NBA in terms of teams being able to keep their own stars and would prevent the league from having to deal with the absolute juggernaut that would be Durant in a Spurs uniform.
Durant knows that the Thunder’s meltdown in the final three games of the 2016 Western Conference Finals were not a result of him having an inferior team that couldn’t keep up with the Warriors, but more a result of past issues that have haunted the Thunder like turnovers and the propensity for he and Westbrook to try to do it all themselves. If he really looks in the mirror he will realize he has everything he needs to reach the NBA mountain top, it is just a matter of him becoming a better player and decision-maker in clutch moments.
