Eight teams can now exhale, regroup, and attempt to move on. Now that all of the favorites like Boston, Los Angeles, and Miami have cruised in their opening round series and others like Atlanta, Chicago, and Memphis have made some sort of history by moving on, it’s time to focus on the NBA’s version of the Elite Eight, better known as the Conference Semi-finals.
In the East, Boston easily got by the rebuilt NY Knicks to now face another tough task in taking on the “Big 3“ led Miami Heat, who bested the young 76ers in 5 games. The Chicago Bulls, with leading MVP candidate Derrick Rose, made quick work of the over-matched Pacers and will try to advance past the 2nd round for the first time since players like Jordan, Pippen, and Rodman patrolled the paint back during the ‘97-’98 season. They face the suddenly red hot Atlanta Hawks, who surprisingly sent Dwight Howard and the Magic on an early Summer vacation and advancing to the 2nd round for the 4th straight season.
Out West, the ever improving Memphis Grizzlies shocked the basketball world by becoming only the second #8 seed to beat a #1 seed(in a 7 game series) by dismantling the aging Spurs and possibly putting an end to a dynasty in San Antonio. They now must face the NBA’s dynamic duo in 2 time league leading scorer Kevin Durant and uber athletic PG Russell Westbrook in a match-up against the title hungry OKC Thunder. It was business as usual for 2 time defending Champion LA Lakers as they again looked spectacular in dismantling the competitive NO Hornets, despite a spirited performance by Chris Paul. Up next is a daunting opponent in the Dallas Mavericks who all but cancel out LA’s usual size advantage with a pair of twin towers of their own in Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood.
1) Can Lebron and the Heat play physical enough to get past the Celtics?
It sounds simple enough but the series may come down to if Miami’s “Big 3“ can withstand the physical brand of defense that the green and white will employ over a 7 game series. We all know that although Paul Pierce is nearly 6 years his elder, “The Truth” plays defense on Lebron about as good as anyone in the Association. Let’s be real. Lebron is the most gifted player in the league and surely Pierce will attempt to at the very least contain the former MVP from going off on a 30+ point night.
In the Wade vs Allen match-up, Miami has the slight edge since although D. Wade will undoubtedly get tired from chasing Ray trying to come off of all those screens, “Flash” is a much more accomplished offensive player at this stage of his career and has already proven a few years ago that he is capable of being the alpha dog when needed to take his team to an NBA Title. Wade also is a vastly underrated defender and may cause fits for Boston’s perimeter players like Allen, West, and Rondo. Then again, weren’t we saying these same things about Allen when he dropped 50 points in a Playoff game 2 years ago?
For Boston, the two keys to winning the series are the continued outstanding play of PG Rajon Rondo and getting above average play in the pivot from either Jermaine, or dare I say it Shaquille O’Neal. Both are areas of weakness for the Heat. While Shaq has been MIA for most of the season, Jermaine appeared rejuvenated in the 1st Round by becoming a defensive force vs New York. If Shaq can get on the floor, the Heat have no answer for the size and presence he provides. At the point, it’s a no brainer THAT Bibby or Chalmers cannot hang with Rondo. Rajon has been especially potent on the offensive end against the Knicks and that trend needs to continue if Boston is to get by Miami. Get your popcorn, I think we are looking at a potentially historic 7 game tilt.
Prediction: Celtics in 7
2) Is Jeff Teague up for the challenge of containing Derrick Rose?
Let’s face it, this is probably the easiest of all four series to try to predict. Does Atlanta, or any team in the league for that matter have a defender that can slow down D. Rose? Prior to the unfortunate injury to the defensive minded Kirk Hinrich, who coincidentally played against Rose in practice for one season as a member of the Bulls a few years ago, Atlanta had at least a fighting game-plan to slow down theprobable league MVP. Now they look to 2nd year floor general Jeff Teague, who was once an elite player at Wake Forest, to draw defensive duties on Rose.
It’s Teague’s chance to step up. The Playoffs are where players earn their money, and doing a decent job defensively on arguably the game’s best young point guard, would do wonders for the confidence and reputation of the 2nd year player. Remember, Atlanta has high hopes for Teague, who essentially made proven post-season performer Mike Bibby expendable during the regular season. The Hawks do have some depth, as super sub Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson will also draw the tough defensive assignment on Rose during the series.
After making it to the 2nd Round for the 4th consecutive season, can the Hawks finally move on? A turf toe injury to the imposing Carlos Boozer may help level the playing field but Chicago seems primed to advance with such a deep roster with names like Deng, Noah, and Korver. The key will be defense, the mainstay of coach Tom Thibodeau in his days as an assistant in Boston. Surely that game-plan will continue as his Bulls will attempt to carve their own niche in Chicago basketball history in the post Jordan/Pippen era.
Prediction: Bulls in 6
3) Kobe vs Dirk – Who will be the best player on the floor?
Whenever you have two evenly matched teams, it all comes down to superstars. Los Angeles and Dallas have two of the brightest in Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki. Both have dealt with lingering injuries all season but their teammates have picked up the slack. The Lakers have done without imposing center Andrew Bynum for the majority of the season while the Mavs have survived without the services of perimeter scorer Caron Butler. Both played trying series against the Hornets and Trailblazers respectively, so now it all comes down to who wants it more: Kobe or Dirk.
The Lakers have beaten Dallas 2 out of 3 times during the regular season with LA averaging nearly 16ppg in margin of victory in the two wins. But these are different teams. In my opinion, both have played through some tough stretches to emerge as the Western Conference’s two best teams.
Kobe is arguably the 2nd best SG in NBA history(behind someone named the G.O.A.T) and Dirk may already be considered the best international player ever. Both finished in the Top 10 in scoring during the regular season with Dirk(3rd) and Kobe(8th) ultimately now ranking among the Top 8 during the Playoffs. Kobe is looking to advance to the Western Finals for the 9th time in 15 seasons while Dirk is attempting to move on for only the 3rd time and first since losing in the ’06 NBA Finals.
While they won’t be matched up against each-other, both are crucial to their team’s success. Just how exactly the Lakers will defend Nowitzki will undoubtedly be focal point number one. If you put a smaller player like Artest on him, Dirk will shoot right over him. Put a taller player like Bynum or Gasol on him and he will alter your team defense by drawing his defender out to the perimeter, opening up the floor and allowing him to either go around them or show off his deft passing abilities. My guess is that Lamar Odom will draw the majority of the minutes against Dirk since he has both the size and lateral quickness to stay with the 7 footer.
Guarding Kobe is another story, since Jason Terry is very offensive minded and J.J. Barea is too small to contain the “Black Mamba.” Look for the aging Jason Kidd and DeShawn Stevenson to play major minutes on Bryant. Maybe this is the series that defensive stand-out Corey Brewer proves his worth in spot defensive duty? The bottom line is that for 15 seasons no one has been able to guard Kobe and the Mavs without Butler, a staunch defender in his own right, really don’t have the answer on their roster. Whichever superstar goes off in the series will help their team advance to the Conference Finals.
Prediction: Lakers in 6
4) Can the Grizzles continue to make history by containing Durant, Westbrook, and the Thunder?
On the surface it seems doubtful. The OKC Thunder seem primed for a possible NBA Finals run now that they have the perfect mix of offensive firepower(Durant, Westbrook, and Harden) along with daunting interior defense(Perkins and Ibaka). All they are lacking is playoff experience. They got a taste last season, losing in the 1st Round to the eventual champion Lakers, now they want more by proving they belong among the NBA’s elite teams.
After such a franchise defining win over the San Antonio Spurs, can the emotional driven Grizzlies, without their regular season leading scorer Rudy Gay, continue to make noise in the post-season? Behind the stellar play of veteran big man Zach Randolph(21.5 ppg and 9.2 rebs in Playoffs), Memphis has found a new go-to-guy in Gay’s absence. Although OJ Mayo was probably the prime candidate to step up, it has been “Z-Bo”, Marc Gasol(14.2ppg and 12.3 reb), and developing PG Mike Conley(remember he was Greg Oden’s PG at Ohio State), who has provided outstanding perimeter play(14.3 ppg and 6.2 ast) in helping the Grizz make their first ever trip the the NBA’s 2nd Round.
For OKC, the league’s 2 time leading scorer Kevin Durant continues to stake his claim as one of the NBA’s Top 5 players. In this year’s Playoffs, he leads all players by averaging a ridiculous 32.4 ppg, including a pair of 41 point games to beat Denver 4-1. PG Russell Westbrook is a star in his own right and one has to wonder just how long these two superstars can co-exist with the Thunder floor general showing just how good his offensive game can be in the 1st Round with 4 20+ point games, including two 30 point efforts. For now the two former Team USA stand-outs are destroying opposing defenses to make the Thunder the #1 scoring team this post-season, as they are the only squad remaining to put up over 100 points per contest. Memphis ranks 4th in their own right but how and who will contain Durant and Westbrook?
Odds are that former Celtic Tony Allen, of shaven Grizzly head fame will garner the defensive assignment on both. He has a reputation as one of the best on-ball defenders in the league and could cause fits. Conley can be an above average defender as well as former Pitt stand-out Sam Young, who does whatever his team needs to secure a win. Shane Battier is still an outstanding defender, while Marc Gasol has rejected a fair amount (1.5 blk) of shot attempts this post-season.
The real key match-up will be in the paint as the super athletic Serge Ibaka will try to contain Randolph while newly acquired Kendrick Perkins will use his nasty demeanor and defensive stylings to keep Gasol in check. It is a battle of contrasting styles as Randolph is one of the very best below the rim players in the Association while Ibaka continually plays above it. Randolph has the crafty, workman-like skill set based on head fakes and up-and-under moves while Serge dunks whenever possible (remember the 2011 Dunk Contest). Good luck Memphis.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
Are we headed towards Boston versus Los Angeles Part III of this era?
Allen Moll has been a lifelong NBA and NCAA College Basketball fan who watches and studies games religiously, and coaches youth basketball in his native Lehigh Valley region of Pennsylvania. Allen also provides content to Bleacherreport.com, Upperdeckblog.com, in addition to being a tenured NBA and NCAA columnist for TheHoopDoctors.com.
