Kyle Lowry isn’t having a good year. He doesn’t look like himself. He’s averaging just 11.9 points per game, his lowest total since 2012-13. He’s shooting 37.6 percent from the floor, the second-worst mark of his career. His three-point percentage has dropped from 41.2 percent in 2016-17, to 32.7 percent this year.
So what gives?
The Toronto Raptors’ new-look offense.
Lowry opened up about his struggles within a model that calls for him to operate off the ball a little bit more, per TSN Sports’ Josh Lewenberg:
Lowry told us he still hasn't found his rhythm. Asked why, he talked about working to get a feel for the new offence. On his slow start: pic.twitter.com/AfAAuA0foJ
— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) November 6, 2017
Everything Lowry says is valid. Though part of his appeal in Toronto is tied to his spot-up shooting, he’s long had the freedom to operate on-ball. He is finishing fewer plays this season; his usage rate has plummeted from 24.9 percent to 19.9, per Basketball-Reference.
More of his shots are also coming off the catch. About 21 percent of his looks were classified as standstill opportunities last year, according to NBA.com. That number has spiked to around 25.7 percent 2017-18.
The Raptors can only hope Lowry grows more comfortable in their new skin with time. They are statistically better on the offensive end without him in the game right now, an unflattering on-off split that is typically reserve for DeMar DeRozan.
On second thought, the Raptors better hope this is an adaptability issue at all, rather than an age problem.
Lowry is more than halfway to his 32nd birthday and, at 6’0″, isn’t particularly big. Undersized point guards tend to drop off as they enter their 30s, a key reason why he wasn’t fielding long-term max offers in free agency over the summer. And if this regression is something more permanent, the Raptors are screwed. They’re treading water now, firmly in the thick of the East’s playoff race, but they don’t have the talent without him playing like himself to make any real noise in the postseason.
