Back in February, LeBron James said that the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors were not a rivalry. It didn’t matter that they had faced each other in each of the last two NBA Finals, with each side winning on each other’s court. They were not a rivalry.
Fast forward to the end of May, just after winning his seventh straight Eastern Conference Finals, and James was singing a much different tune.
“I’m going to be honest—I’m not in the right mind to even talk about Golden State,” he said after winning his seventh straight Eastern Conference Finals,” per ESPN.com’s Brian Windhorst. “It’s too stressful, and I’m not stressed right now.”
It sure seems like James thinks this is a rivalry now. And this time, unlike last, he’s right. No two teams have ever faced off in three straight NBA Finals before. The Cavaliers erased the Warriors’ 3-1 series lead last year to claim their title. The Warriors countered by adding Kevin Durant, a top-five player, to a 73-win core. Don’t try to say this isn’t rivalry.
In fact, this dynamic is about to enter its second phase—one where this latest NBA Finals trip serves not only to deliver bragging rights to one side, but to define the direction of the loser.
If the Cavaliers, who are pegged as +250 underdogs, fall in anything short of a six- or seven-game heartbreaker, trade rumors will follow them into the offseason.
Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving aren’t safe just because Cleveland won its first-ever championship last year. There is an unending sense of urgency attached to teams that employ James. Should it become clear the Cavaliers, as currently constructed, are not on or even close the Warriors’ level, they will enter the summer at the very least considering, if not acting on the impulse to, tweak the other two-thirds of their Big Three.
Meanwhile, Bovada has the Warriors, who are coming off the best three-year regular-season stretch in NBA history, pegged as -260 favorites. In fact, all of the renowned betting sites have Golden State as favorites. In the last three years, the Warriors have won 84.1 percent of their games (207-39), amassing 24 more wins than the next best team (San Antonio Spurs).
If they fall to the Cavaliers, it isn’t just a singular loss. It will be looped into their letdown last year, and viewed as dropping two of three championships—a major problem when, again, the team is working through the most dominant three-year span ever.
And if that happens, there will be repercussions. No, the Warriors won’t let one or both of Durant and Stephen Curry walk in free agency. But there will be other decisions to make. Assuming they can, should they pay Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala to stick around, when both are well past their 30th birthday?
Might they consider trading Klay Thompson, knowing they have enough offensive power, for two to four cheaper players, picks or prospects that deepen the team’s rotation without breaking the bank?
These seem like extremes, because they are. But they’re worth discussing. Neither scenario for the losing team is an overreaction. The Warriors and Cavaliers will have met in three consecutive finals by year’s end, and both are the standard to which everyone else is measured against. When one beats the other, again, for the second time, there will be a major price for the loser to pay.
As for what the cost will be, well, we’ll just have to watch the Cavaliers and Warriors, two genuine rivals, play through these NBA Finals to find out.
After all is said and done, the Warriors will defeat the Cavs in six entertaining, high-scoring affairs.
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