Of the few high-profile NBA free-agent flight risks that are must-watch case studies entering the 2015 offseason, LaMarcus Aldridge has never been one of them.
Not since last summer at least. It was then that it became clear he wanted to remain with the Portland Trail Blazers. They were on the up and up following a first-round playoff victory over the Houston Rockets, with a core worthy of lasting well into the future.
Never, at any point since, has his free agency come close to being an issue. Rumors of outside interest have been met by stubborn skepticism or, in many cases, no reactions at all, because of how ludicrous the idea of him leaving seemed.
One Blazers player, however, wouldn’t be shocked to see Aldridge leave this summer. In fact, he thinks Aldridge’s exit is a virtual coin toss.
Per The Oregonian‘s Jason Quick:
After an atrocious performance by the Blazers that at one point left Aldridge sitting alone on the bench as his teammates joined a late-game huddle, the Blazers need to worry about more than just losing this series.
They need to worry about losing one of the greatest players in franchise history.
Some Blazers players have already said they are worried free agency will take Aldridge away from Portland this summer. Earlier this month, before a home game, a Blazers player estimated the chances of him returning to Portland at 50-50.
All of this could be a smokescreen or inaccurate, but it’s a legitimate concern nonetheless. It’s also borderline alarming that these player sentiments existed long before the Blazers fell to the Memphis Grizzlies 100-86 in Game 1 of their first-round series on Sunday night. It suggests these are level-headed offerings that aren’t the sole products of recency bias, where players reflexively react to one loss. Depending on when these thoughts were sought out, they of course could be. The point is, they are not the culminations of Sunday night’s letdown.
Another first-round exit gives the Blazers plenty of reasons to fear Aldridge’s free agency. Not only will he have other suitors, but they have to invest tens of millions of dollars in this not-good-enough core over the next few summers.
Robin Lopez, Wesley Matthews and Arron Afflalo, in addition to Aldridge, will all hit free agency in July. Nicolas Batum is slated to reach the open market in 2016. Damian Lillard will be eligible for an extension this summer, though it’s possible he waits until 2016 to sign one so that he can capitalize on the expected cap boon.
None of which implies keeping Aldridge won’t be a priority or something the Blazers cannot afford. If they’re going to cut costs, he is not the luxury they will leave behind. But if this is their team moving forward, and if that same team is unable to sniff the second round, leaving becomes a more attractive option for Aldridge.
Sure, the Blazers can offer him more money and years than any other suitor. Pushing 30, though, Aldridge will need to weight that extra year against the chance to win. A more proven San Antonio Spurs squad could show interest, or he could be swayed by the prospect of joining aggressive franchises seeking instant turnarounds in the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks.
For that matter, he could decide to stay in Portland no matter what. That’s seemingly been the plan all along, and there are no indications from Aldridge that his plan has changed.
Play through yet another early postseason exit, though, and it most certainly could.
