Now that the 65 team field is set, it’s time to start breaking down the brackets and separating the contenders from the pretenders in an attempt to help you win your office pool. Which squad is overrated, under-seeded, or will become this year’s Cinderella? In our fourth and final bracket preview, we will take a deeper look at the South Region.
Contenders
In arguably the easiest bracket to win, #1 seed Duke’s only real competition is from Villanova and Baylor. As Asylum.com tells us history has shown that Duke’s biggest rivalry over the years has always been North Carolina. I guess Duke won’t be worried about that this year, huh? Although their big men have been playing well, I don’t buy the Blue Devils as a #1 seed. Although their numbers look good, remember they played in the down ACC, where even Maryland got a share of the regular season crown. Duke may win a few rounds but I think they will struggle, especially in later rounds. The #2 seed Villanova Wildcats have come limping into the tourney by losing 5 of their last 7 games, including an early exit from the Big East Tourney. Guard play wins in March and no one has either the depth or talent in the backcourt as Nova. Look for Jay Wright and Scottie Reynolds to make it to the Elite 8. #3 Baylor could be the sleeper of the whole bracket behind the perfect balance of talented players. While I don’t see #4 Purdue going anywhere, #5 Texas A&M was quietly one of the top teams in the Big 12 this season. If they get past Utah St in the first round, watch for the Aggies to cause fits for Siena or Duke.
Underseeded
Siena Saints
Even though they have beaten Vanderbilt and Ohio State in consecutive years in the tourney, Siena was given their lowest seed ever, a #13 seed. That’s not much respect for a proven giant-killer. Behind MAAC Player of the Year and conference tourney MVP Alex Franklin(16 ppg, 8 rebs), point guard supreme Ronald Moore(7 ppg, 8 ast, 2 stl), high scoring Edwin Ubiles(15 ppg), double-double machine Ryan Rossiter(14 ppg, 11 rebs), along with Clarence Jackson(14 ppg), the Saints finished an impressive 27-6, including a 17-1 conference mark. With such experience the Saints will be a tough out this year. One problem they had this season was Rossiter’s propensity toward picking up cheap fouls. He has fouled out of a number of games and could be a concern late in games. Another area of concern in the injury to Clarence Jackson in the MAAC Tournament. He was seen on crutches on Selection Sunday’s CBS coverage.
Overseeded
Purdue Boilermakers
The committee obviously took into consideration Purdue’s early season success in still awarding them a #4 seed. With injuries to their best player, Robbie Hummel and the re-injured Lewis Jackson puts a damper on their season. Although still a talented bunch behind E’twuan Moore(16.6 ppg), Chris Kramer, Keaton Grant, and JaJuan Johnson(15 ppg, 7 rebs, 2 blk), they just don’t have enough horses to make a deep tourney run. How do they make up Hummels 16 points and 7 boards? In a nasty stat, without Hummel, Purdue is 3-2 but were outrebounded by a 96-46 margin in the two losses. With all of the distractions going on, now they must face a tourney proven giant-killer in Siena. On the other hand, with a ton of tourney experience themselves, surely Purdue won’t go down without a fight since they haven’t lost a first round game since ’93, when coach Matt Painter was a senior guard!
Bracket Sleeper
Baylor Bears
After missing March Madness last season and making it to the championship game in the NIT, the Bears played just under the radar to become a #3 seed and a tourney sleeper. Baylor has the perfect mix, an experienced scoring point guard in Tweety Carter(16 ppg, 6 ast), a high scoring two guard in LaceDarius Dunn(19 ppg, 5 rebs), and an imposing two way player in the paint in former Michigan transfer, Ekpe Udoh(14 ppg, 10 rebs, 4 blk). Quincy Acy(9 ppg, 5 rebs) is one of the best players off the bench in the entire nation. Udoh was so dominant of a shot blocker that he set the single season Big 12 record with 124 blocks. The Bears finished the year on an 8-2 run and made it to the semi-finals of the Big 12 Tournament. Sitting in a 2-3 zone with an imposing post defender will cause match-up problems similar to Syracuse. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Baylor give Villanova a run for their money in the Sweet 16. Undoubtedly, they will win their first tourney game in60 years(last win in 1950).
Best Player To Lose In The First Round
Jerome Randle, California Bears
After setting a school record by scoring more than 1,800 points and winning the PAC-10 Player of the Year, point guard Jerome Randle is finally bringing some respect to the Cal Bears hoops program. Randle outplayed Washington’s Quincy Pondexter to win the award as the conference’s best player. He had an impressive season averaging 19 ppg, 4.5 ast, while shooting more than 46% from the 3 point line. Randle led the Bears to winning 10 of their last 12 games to finish with a 23-10 overall mark, and winning the Pac-10 regular season with a 13-5 mark. Randle and his Cal teammate face a tough Louisville bunch, from the Big East Conference, in one of the better first round match-ups. Although the Bears can hold their own offensively, they can’t guard anybody, which doesn’t bode well against Rick Pitino’s Louisville squad.
Most Outstanding Player
Scottie Reynolds, Villanova Wildcats
Even though Dike is the top seeded team in the bracket, Villanova’s senior guard Scottie Reynolds is it’s best player. As a First Team All Big East performer and All American candidate, Reynolds led Nova in scoring at 18.5 ppg and 3 point shooting(40%), while seemingly doing whatever necessary to preserve a Wildcat win. Outside of Kansas’ Sheron Collins, no one in college basketball has taken or hit more meaningful shots than Reynolds. Unfortunately, he cannot do it all by himself and will need help from hsi backcourt mates Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes to make it back to the Final Four in consecutive years. Even if you’re not a Nova fan, keep your eyes on Reynolds because he will undoubtedly do something special like this shot against Pitt, last year.
Allen Moll is an avid NBA and College Basketball fan who watches and studies games religiously and coaches youth basketball in his native Lehigh Valley region of Pennsylvania. Allen is a regular columnist for thehoopdoctors.com, Bleacherreport.com, UpperDeckblog.com, and his own site, Hoops Haven.
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