Welcome to the NBA’s real season.
The Association’s hectic playoff schedule is all set to tipoff on Saturday, so we at The Hoop Doctors bring you our all-purpose predictions. These are for everyone. Diehard fans. Casual fans. Loyal readers. People who accidentally stumbled upon this page. If there’s a sports bettor in you, well, you’re welcome for steering you in the direction of winning.
Official odds and lines for the outcome of all playoff series can be seen at a variety of book makers, but if you’re looking to see whether or not we’re going against the grain. But these are our officially unofficial predictions. Our projected winners take into account everything from regular-season performance and past meetings, to whether a team has Stephen Curry. (Sorry, Houston Rockets.)
Remember that postseason dates are more about matchups than anything else. How one team’s personnel compares to another absolutely matters. A coach’s ability to adjust to different lineups and play styles is key. All of this will play a role in our predictions.
There are admittedly a truckload of formalities this year, so to keep things interesting, we’ll be offering game predictions as well. You’re welcome. Again.
Let’s playoff.
Eastern Conference
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (8) Detroit Pistons
This isn’t a question of whether the Cleveland Cavaliers will beat the Detroit Pistons. Rather, it’s a matter of how long it will take the Cavaliers to upend the Pistons.
Detroit is far more balanced than people tend to acknowledge. It ranks in the top 13 of both offensive and defensive efficiency, and the pick-and-roll combination between Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson, with Tobias Harris dotting the three-point line, is absolutely terrifying. But the Pistons aren’t really elite in any one area of the game, and there isn’t much talent outside their starting lineup. Rookie Stanley Johnson can shift the outcome of a game if he catches fire and his defensive gambles pay off, but coach Stan Van Gundy has adhered to a strict rotation all season due to a dearth of second unit talent.
Basically, the Pistons are a year or two away from being a legitimate Eastern Conference threat. If the Cavaliers take more than five games to advance, they have failed.
Well that, or LeBron James has—long gasp—been injured.
Prediction: Cavaliers in five
(2) Toronto Raptors. vs. (7) Indiana Pacers
There is more intrigue between the Toronto Raptors and Indiana Pacers than most will admit. The Raptors should win this one. They have to win this one. This core won’t survive the offseason if it suffers a third consecutive first-round exit. Fortunately for Toronto, it has the better team. Norman Powell’s emergence is a huge boon for the perimeter rotation, DeMarre Carroll, even at 75 percent, adds a touch of defensive versatility, DeMar DeRozan has morphed into a reliable catch-and-shoot marksman from deep, and Kyle Lowy would be an MVP candidate if Stephen Curry didn’t exist.
Still, the Pacers’ defense can be scary. Jonas Valanciunas won’t get many huge nights at the expense of Ian Mahinmi, and head coach Frank Vogel is smart about the way he fields smaller units, using only a blend of talent that can hold its own defensively. Indiana ranked third in points allowed per 100 possessions this season, according to Basketball-Reference, and could F up Toronto’s offense for tilts at a time.
Expect the games to be closer than anticipated. In the end, though, the Raptors are still the (much) better team. So long as they don’t devolve into the smoldering heap of incompetency we saw against the Washington Wizards last year, they’ll be just fine.
Prediction: Raptors in five
(3) Miami Heat vs. (6) Charlotte Hornets
Color this your guilty-pleasure first-round matchup.
The Miami Heat have been on a tear since the All-Star break, without Chris Bosh, and the Charlotte Hornets have done nothing but exceed expectations since the season began. Conventional wisdom gives an inherent edge to the Heat. They have more playoff experience and more star power. But the Hornets are sneaky deep, and they will create a ton of matchup problems for Miami.
Though the Heat have taken to running four-out lineups, sometimes running five-out combinations that feature Josh McRoberts at center, they are vulnerable to defensive switches whenever Hassan Whiteside is on the floor. He has a tendency to drop back too far off screens in an effort to prevent dribble penetration. That leaves him susceptible to giving up three-pointers in volume, and Charlotte has a ton of capable chuckers in tow these days. When Whiteside decides to jump those ball-handlers, he is then liable to get beaten off the dribble, pinning the burden of protecting the rim to Luol Deng or Joe Johnson, neither of whom is a viable iron guardian.
But Miami’s elevated tempo has routinely brought out the old Goran Dragic. He and Dwyane Wade are working well together, the addition of Johnson has been huge for the offense, and coach Erik Spoelstra has a ready-made defensive hound in Justise Winslow coming off the bench.
Truthfully, this series could be decided on the sidelines, between Hornets coach Steve Clifford and Spoelstra. They are two of the best at making adjustments on the fly and catering to the strengths of their personnel.
Overall, it’s still the Heat with the edge. They are just a bit more polished when Whiteside is swallowing shots at the rim and finishing pick-and-roll lobs better than anyone not named DeAndre Jordan.
Prediction: Heat in six
(4) Atlanta Hawks vs. (5) Boston Celtics
Almost immediately after the playoff bracket was settled, there were those who started debunking the Boston Celtics’ rise, specifically as it pertains to their matchup with the Atlanta Hawks. And many of them have legitimate concerns. The Celtics aren’t a good rebounding team, and their offense gets gummed up whenever it’s forced to operate extensively in half-court situations.
But Boston has done a phenomenal job of dictating the pace all season. And we cannot underestimate the versatility of this roster. The Celtics, according to Basketball-Reference, join the Golden State Warriors as the only teams that rank in the top 10 of offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency and pace. The Hawks might be able to coax them into a slow-paced affair, but the Celtics are still built to prop themselves up with a hyperactive defense.
The problem? That same defense has, at times, proved inconsistent. Isaiah Thomas, for all his offensive value, is a liability, and Boston cannot bench him without seeing its offense crater. Atlanta, though an unimpressive squad, has more firepower in its starting lineup.
Bank on a close series. But the Celtics, warts and all, are a harrowing matchup for any team in the East—these Hawks included.
Prediction: Celtics in seven
Western Conference
(1) Golden State Warriors vs. (8) Houston Rockets
Relevant note: Most sportsbooks won’t even let you place a bet on the Warriors to beat the Houston Rockets. That’s how much of a sure thing they are.
Maybe they drop a game. Maybe they drop two. They were playing sloppy basketball before rattling off their last two wins against the San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies, and it’s long been assumed that the Rockets, last year’s second Western Conference Finalist, are better than their record suggests.
Let’s be real here, though: The Warriors aren’t losing this series. If the Rockets steal a game, they’ve obliterated expectations.
Prediction: Warriors in four
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (7) Memphis Grizzlies
What’s the Spurs’ reward for, essentially, keeping pace with the best-ever Warriors all year?
An easier first-round date.
Memphis is missing Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Brandan Wright, among others. Head coach Dave Joerger has been forced to use Lance Stephenson as an offensive pilot, and Zach Randolph can disappear for possessions at a time—the byproduct of having the full attention of every defense you face.
Spurs head honcho Gregg Popovich understands the value of a quick playoff series and the rest in between rounds that comes with it. Especially now, after seeing San Antonio fall in seven games to the Clippers in the first round last year. The Spurs will take the Grizzlies seriously, and they will destroy them.
Prediction: Spurs in four
(3) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks
All of me wants to say the Dallas Mavericks will steal at least two games from the Oklahoma City Thunder. But they won’t.
Oklahoma City has this nasty propensity for playing down to the level of its opponents, and Westbrook is a wild card both on defense and during crunch time. But the Thunder are still built to beat the Mavericks in every facet of the game.
Dallas’ best hope is hoping they can survive with Dirk Nowitzki playing a lion’s share of his minutes at the 5, thus testing the hot-and-cold jump shot and iffy perimeter defense of Serge Ibaka when he jumps center. Even then, though, the Thunder are a matchup terror with Durant at the 4. If they can’t escape this thing in five games, it’s because the Rockets’ year-long case of Underachieving-itis proved infectious.
Prediction: Thunder in five
(4) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (5) Portland Trail Blazers
The Portland Trail Blazers are the only hope the Western Conference has of a first-round upset. If they cannot unseat the Los Angeles Clippers, everything else is chalk.
Related: Don’t count on them pulling off the upset. Their offense is incredible, but they can’t do anything the Chris Paul-led Clippers cannot. It helps the Blazers that J.J. Redick isn’t fully healthy, and that Blake Griffin is still technically working his way back into the swing of things. The Blazers’ bench is more impressive as well, and their record in Portland is almost as good as the Clippers’ record in Los Angeles.
With the way both squads play, this should be a highly entertaining series Home-court swag will play a pivotal part in how long it takes to decide a winner, but make no mistake, the Clippers will inevitably be that winner.
Prediction: Clippers in six
