Every season in the NBA by mid-January, the rumor mill starts churning at a frenetic pace and many borderline all-star caliber players and even a superstar player or two appear to be on the block. From one day to the next in the 24/7 “ESPN-fied” sports media culture we live in, prospective trades and team needs are debated for hours on end.
This year is no different and there may even be more big name stars than usual being mentioned in the rumor feed, including Blake Griffin, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Kevin Love and Al Horford.
With all of that being said though, there are a few underlying reasons why all of this chatter will amount to nothing more than just that, chatter, come 1 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday:
The cap is rising
This means that expiring contracts have far less value than in most years as virtually every team will have plenty of cap space this summer. That limits the pool of sellers dramatically, and also means that teams are wary of taking on longer-term salary. Most teams have a pipe dream of landing an alpha dog like Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook the next two summers, extra salary on the books is not the ideal choice for most teams.
Superstars don’t usually get traded mid-season
There have been few trades in the past 30 years at the trade deadline that involved superstars in their prime like Griffin, Anthony or Howard. The only trades involving stars mid-season in past years have been Shaq for Shawn Marion in 2008, Gary Payton for Ray Allen in 2003, the Miami Heat acquiring Tim Hardaway in 1996, and the Pistons acquiring Rasheed Wallace in 2004. NBA teams don’t like to alter the entire course of their franchise and trade the face of their franchise midseason, that almost always occurs in the offseason.
Everybody is in a holding pattern
The Clippers are clearly open and interested in dealing Griffin regardless of what they say, but they want to ride this season out with this core and re-evaluate after the season is over when they have time to come up with a new plan. The Cavs are likewise open to dealing Love for the right deal, but as a title contender, they don’t want to take the huge risk of messing with team chemistry this late in the season (especially after a head coaching change). The Rockets are learning that teams aren’t lining up to deal for a 30-year-old center with back and shoulder issues that has never been a leader and wants a $30 million max extension in the summer. The Hawks will deal Horford if they get a top-notch offer, but they are also in no rush to move him either as they could re-sign him in the offseason.
Although it is fun to hypothesize where some stars will end up, like Carmelo Anthony in a Cavs uniform or Dwight Howard in a Heat uniform, the reality is the chances of any of these players being moved in the next couple days is slim.
Most trades that actually take place right before the deadline are ones that were kept quiet and never really reported in the first place. Like today’s Brandon Jennings and Tobias Harris swap between the Pistons and Magic. Most big time rumors you hear now are thrown out there by agents and front offices to increase the value and interest in certain players.
Although it will be fun to scour the rumor mill 24/7 over the next few days, don’t expect any big name players to be on the move before the trade deadline. Sorry to disappoint.
