The Dwyane Wade saga continues.
The 12-year NBA veteran can opt out of his contract with the Miami Heat and explore free agency this summer. No one in the world initially expected him to do so. And in the event he did, no one would expect him to leave Miami.
Over the last week or so, however, some unsettling news is starting to trickle out of South Beach.
First it was reported that Wade actually did want to opt out of his contract and sign a more lucrative deal and would use the threat of actually leaving to get the Heat to oblige.
Then, amid that flurry of news, we were told to pump the brakes on all speculation, because Wade didn’t want to leave Miami. As Joseph Goodman of the Miami Herald put it:
#HeatTwitter step away from the cliff. Dwyane Wade does not want to leave Miami.
— Joseph Goodman (@JoeGoodmanJr) June 1, 2015
Now, apparently, the Heat faithful are free to step back on the cliff.
No one is actually reporting that Wade will leave Miami, but according to Bleacher Report’s Ethan J. Skolnick (h/t RealGM), the Heat aren’t giving him many reasons to stay:
@jnewman3345 it was under 10M per, I believe
— Ethan J. Skolnick (@EthanJSkolnick) June 2, 2015
Yowsa.
If the Heat are slinging $10 million per year at the moment, that means Wade would earn more than $6 million less than he’s slated to take home in 2015-16; his player option is worth $16.1 million.
That’s some serious coin he would be leaving on the table, and though he’s taken pay cuts before, they’ve never been in the neighborhood of 37-plus percent. And after the season Wade had, health aside, he’s certainly worth more than $10 million annually—especially with the salary cap set to erupt.
Indeed, the Heat have enough leverage. Even if Wade accepts a discount, they would still be paying him more than he’s worth on the open market. But that’s provided they move on this $10 million figure, because there is some team out there that would roll the dice on Wade for three or four years at $12 million or slightly more per season. You better believe that.
In the end, know that Wade won’t be earning $10 million next season. It’s just not going to happen. He’d be better off opting in and taking his chances in 2016 free agency.
The most likely scenario still entails him returning to Miami and retiring as a member of the Heat. And barring a completely unforeseen series of further events, that’s not going to change.
