The NBA’s new TV deal might be bittersweet.
The association announced Monday that it brokered a nine-year, $24 billion dollar media-rights pact with ESPN and Turner Sports. Terrific breakdowns replete with informed and uniformed speculation as to what this means are everywhere. Chief among any concerns, though, is the potential for another lockout.
Deron Williams of the Brooklyn Nets thinks one is going to happen, per Newsday‘s Rod Boone:
Despite new TV deal, Deron said he definitely still expects a lockout in 2017. #Nets
— Rod Boone (@rodboone) October 6, 2014
Was trying to ask Deron if he was looking forward to market after new TV deal and he said: "To what, a potential lockout? Nah not really."
— Rod Boone (@rodboone) October 6, 2014
What a pessimistic Patty, am I right? Here some fans and pundits are thinking about the wonders this will do to the NBA’s salary cap. It could climb tens of millions of dollars annually in just a few years. The Cleveland Cavaliers could have cap space to sign a fourth superstar. Carmelo Anthony’s contract suddenly looks like a steal for the New York Knicks. Kobe Bryant’s contract with the Los Angeles Lakers no longer seems incredibly absurd. More cap means more spending; more spending means more superstar movement. It’s that simple…you know, if it actually was that simple.
Personally, I cannot even begin to fathom what the year-to-year financial repercussions will be. The salary cap will definitely rise, make no mistake. But the ultra-diplomatic Adam Silver isn’t about to back an astronomical increase. If anything, he and the owners will try to spread it out, paring it down through a couple minor, yet still substantial jumps that could begin even before the new TV deal takes effect for the 2016-17 season.
That’s my gut feeling anyway. And my other gut feeling is that the players will take issue with it to some extent. Many feel they got hosed in the last lockout, and that the owners make out like bandits in the current collective bargaining agreement. Whatever number the NBA throws out salary cap-wise directly impacts their annual earning. Ergo, after that last lockout, any number the NBA throws out may seem too small.
Kevin Draper had a nice take on this over at Deadspin:
The NBA thumpingly won the 2011 lockout against the players, reducing the amount of basketball-related income the players got from 57 percent to about 51 percent of BRI, a loss of $300 million per year for the players. The league was much better organized than the players, and it won the public-relations battle by convincing the public that teams were losing money, a claim that the league has never backed up with team financials and one that ignores the immense profits owners make when they sell their teams. Donald Sterling bought the Clippers for $12.5 million in 1981. He sold them this offseason for $2 billion.
The current CBA doesn’t expire until after the 2020–21 season, but either side may opt out after the 2016–17 season, right after the first year under the new media deal. The players have chafed at the terms of the CBA since the day they signed, and they will likely be itching to gain back a larger slice of the pie. In light of billion-dollars sales and a multibillion-dollar annual TV deal, it will be much harder for the league to turn out its pockets and cry poverty.
When this much money is involved, there is a lot at stake. No wonder why Williams thinks there will be another lockout.
If the NBA and its players cannot iron out a more player-friendly agreement before either side has the right to opt out, we may be forced to slog through 2011 all over again. It’s a very real threat. The players will want, they will demand a larger slice of the pie.
Here’s hoping they get it without another months-long stalemate that feels like it lasts forever.
Dan Favale is a firm believer in the three-pointer as well as the notion that defense doesn’t always win championships. His musings can be found at Bleacherreport.com in addition to TheHoopDoctors.com.
