Now that the Larry O’Brien Trophy has been given to its rightful owners, it’s time to take stock of who will be the most interesting teams to watch this NBA offseason. Let’s start with number five.
5. New Orleans Hornets
While it’s entirely possible that someone like Jerry Jones gets a wild hair, buys the Hornets, keeps them in NOLA and extends offer sheets to new and exciting free agents (including keeping Chris Paul) I would put that just in between “improbable” and “Darko getting drafted before ‘Melo, Bosh and DWade”. The dynamic between David Stern finding a buyer for the team and the rules regarding a league-owned team trying to renegotiate with one of the top free agents of 2012 is enough for us all to set an ESPN alert to. The fate of the Hornets should be especially interesting to cities without NBA teams, including Seattle and San Diego.
4. Portland Trailblazers
After the firing of Rich Cho and the subsequent rumors that have followed that organization around, Rip City isn’t looking so rosy anymore. Add the spices of an owner who is increasingly getting an Al Davis-like rep in Paul Allen, the re-signing two broken stars and the never-ending changing of the guard in the backcourt and you’ve got one trainwreck of a franchise. Who Portland makes GM will ultimately decide their fate, but if Allen is pulling the strings we can look forward to a Trailblazer team that mimics the same story we’ve seen the last 5 years — no PG of the future, injury issues, win 50+ games and an early playoff exit. The real treat? They write this story a different way every year with the same results. It’s the NBA version of a Nicholas Sparks book.
3. Orlando Magic
Who Otis Smith puts around Dwight Howard is going to mean everything this year. There’s only two scenarios available (which makes it a bit more predictable) but I think that is offset by the weight of the prize involved in D12. Orlando could end up like Cleveland in the last two years of the LeBron era, with over-paid role players and washed-up, one dimensional players (Monta Ellis, anyone?) that fail to meet standards and Howard leaves. Smith could instead land a high-caliber A-level player like the 2008 Lakers-Memphis trade that landed Kobe a sidekick in Marc Gasol (not to mention rings). The question in Florida will be who Smith decides to move to make it happen and how low he will have to sell his current stock.
2. Denver Nuggets
Denver makes it to the top of the list because of sheer numbers. Their roster is jam-packed with talent that mid-level or championship-cusp teams are dying for. Of the current roster that could be moved are Raymond Felton, J.R. Smith/Aaron Afflalo/Wilson Chandler (one), Chris Andersen/Timofey Mozgov/Kosta Koufos (possibly two). Each of those guys are starters on decent teams and one (Felton) is top-level talent waiting to be snapped up by someone (Lakers). Even the players the Nuggets are very high on — Nene, Mozgov and Lawson — aren’t necessarily safe given the right deal. Add in a dash of ownership instability and you’ve got an interesting summer ahead of you. Denver will most likely move some current talent for a solid starter and future picks. And as always, who wants to bite on Al Harrington’s monster contract? Anyone?
1. Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies were my favorite team of the entire post-season. A resurrected star, a little brother, a “bad egg” and an over-hyped college point guard came together to provide one of the best runs in NBA playoff history. Unfortunately, the new CBA may clash with player expectations of what they’re worth, particularly with Marc Gasol. Although Memphis has a trade chip in Rudy Gay, the tradeoff in talent if Memphis moved him for another starting forward wouldn’t realistically make up for that kind of salary dump. At his position, Gay may be the best bang-for-the-buck Memphis can get, even if he is over-paid.
More importantly, this is a team that ran off emotion all year long. Now that they’ve startled the beast that is NBA mainstream fans, it may be difficult to summon that same “we don’t get no respect” emotion from the bowels of the FedEx Forum. If they succeed in becoming a major power in the West they will have ironically taken the spot of another small-market team whose reign they ended in this years playoffs, the San Antonio Spurs. But if they fail, their story may be more Sam Kinison than Rodney Dangerfield.
The newest edition to The Hoop Doctors writing staff, Dane Carbaugh is the editor and lead writer of the popular new basketball blog Hardcourt Hoops. Dane is an accomplished author and blogger of both American politics and NBA basketball.
