Robert Fung is an avid basketball fan, a 10+ year fantasy NBA veteran, and the Basketball Team Lead on Rotokingdom.net. Chicago born and raised, he grew up with the Michael Jordan era and continues to root for the Bulls.
Bust is generally a pretty harsh term for a player that hasn’t capitalized on their potential. In the draft context, I’ll use the term to describe a player that overachieved last year and could get drafted too high this year when their stats fall back down. If you draft them based on last year’s numbers, you may get a bad surprise this year.
Troy Murphy –
Murphy’s pretty good. He has career averages near 10-10 with a steal and trey, and has had a few years where he’s been a double double beast, which have allowed him to routinely post top 100 value. Last year, he stepped up his game even more, finishing with an 8th overall rank in value by setting career highs in FG%, 3PTM 3PTA and 3PT%, rebounds, assists, tying a career high in steals, posting 2nd highest in points and FT%, while maintaining good TOs and decent blocks. Brilliant year for him. Unfortunately, last year Indiana was missing a key part of their scoring and ball movement depth (Mike Dunleavy). Dunleavy will return this year, is reportedly well ahead of schedule and may even be ready by training camp. Dunleavy could take away a shot or few. Also, Indiana has an up and coming big man, Roy Hibbert, fresh off his rookie season, when he averaged per 30 min averages of about 14-7. If Hibbert gets the time, that could cut down on Murphy’s rebounding and scoring. Murphy will post top 75 numbers and probably top 50 numbers, but most likely won’t be worth that 2nd or 3rd round pick.
Rasheed Wallace –
Sheed generally posts top 50 value due to consistent contributions in the three-cat 3s/steals/blocks club as well as good rebounding averages and great TOs. Unfortunately, he’s decided to sign with Boston to try to get another ring. While Boston could utilize him as a starter, Boston has had great success with their core and most likely won’t disrupt that chemistry. Boston could play Sheed at both the 4 and 5, giving KG and Perkins some very much needed rest, but Big Baby (Glen Davis) just resigned and got 21 mpg last year. So, it might be tough for Sheed to get playing time, and it will certainly be tough for him to get his touches behind the Celts big 3.
OJ Mayo –
It’s a shame to put OJ on this list after rookie season averages of about 18-4-3-2 treys-steal, but he probably won’t improve on those numbers and it isn’t even his fault. Memphis first signed Zach Randolph, a perennial 20-10 player for the last 6 years. Unfortunately, it takes ZBo about 17 FGA to score 20 points. Last year’s starting and backup PF averaged a combined 14 FGA. Also, ZBo’s not known to pass, and has made the highlight reel with fancy (and uncoordinated and poorly executed) dribbling and deep range shooting. Memphis then signed Allen Iverson, a scoring point guard, who not only will likely be OJs backup and take valuable playing time away, but also has a career average of 22 FGA/gm and averaged about 14 FGA/gm at his lowest (last year). Take a young, explosive, sometimes even selfish, scorer that could have had great mid-draft value, and throw him in with two other ballhogs, and you end up stripping away most of that scoring value.
Mike Bibby –
While Bibby has led Atlanta to playoff berths, his own value has declined since his prime. His scoring averages have been down the past two years, and his APG dropped last year. That’s not too bad, except for the fact that Atlanta just brought in a 20 ppg combo guard, Jamal Crawford, as his backup and drafted a point guard in the mid first round. Bibby provides pretty good assists and rebounds, but his main value comes from his scoring, especially from the perimeter, which unfortunately is where JCraw loves to play as well. Bibby is also 31, so it’s pretty clear that his best days are past. He won’t be a big bust, but he’s no longer an easy mid-draft pick.
Ben Gordon –
Gordon has been pretty clutch for Chitown, but has taken his game to Detroit, where he’ll likely backup ex-all-star SG, Rip Hamilton. BG is no stranger to the bench, but has averaged 30+ mpg the last 4 years. Detroit isn’t particularly deep, especially in the backcourt, but they’ll need to juggle their roster a bit to give BG 30, and BG poses a height and defensive liability that Detroit cannot compensate for. BG won’t be a complete bust, but I don’t see him averaging north of 20 ppg, which probably drops him just outside the top 100.
Richard Jefferson –
RJ’s had a great career, and he’s just 29. His overall value hasn’t peaked that high, because his hustle stats and 3s usually aren’t all that good, but he has provided good points, boards, assists, and percentages. RJ was moved to a very deep and veteran team hoping to regain their western conference dominance. Unfortunately for us, that means RJ is probably their 3rd or 4th offensive option. San Antonio also brought in a veteran post player that can rebound efficiently, so RJ’s rebounding average likely won’t be that high. If anything, RJ’s FG% may improve, because the defense will be so spread, but RJ still will struggle to post top 100 value.
Brad Miller –
Miller is another solid #1/2 center with great percentages, good boards and great big man assists. He had a great season a few years back, but was traded to Chicago midway through last year. In Chicago, Miller was demoted to a bench role as Chitown expects Joakim Noah to be their future stud center. It’s taken Noah over a year, but he finally had a coming out party in the playoffs and may be ready for more playing time. As a result of Noah’s play and the coach’s confidence in him, Miller’s minutes declined from 31.5 before the break, to 27.5 post-ASB, to 26.5 in the postseason (where the Bulls played multiple OT games). At the ripe age of 33, Miller is starting to fade away in fantasyland.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas –
Ilgauskas has been a solid #1/2 center with great percentages and good boards/blocks for over a decade now. He’s 34 now, and Cleveland is trying to keep him running for a championship, so they’ve been cutting back on his minutes. With the Shaq signing this summer, Z will get his minutes cut even more. This might be the first year in awhile that Z’s value drops out of the double digits and may even be the first year that you’ll see him on the waiver wire to start the season barring injury. Unfortunately for Z, a draft pick after 150 is justified.
Randy Foye –
Foye finally made his presence felt with a 16-4-3-steal-1.6 trey line last year, but was dealt this past summer to either back up one of the league’s most electrifying and elite PGs (Gilbert Arenas, aka Agent Zero, aka Hibachi, etc) or to compete for the starting SG job with the boring incumbent DeShawn Stevenson, the young and promising Nick Young, or even his own ex-Minny teammate, Mike Miller. Stevenson and Young have the team history, playbook, and reputation already, Mike Miller has the outside shooting, and Arenas already plays a combo guard like Foye. So, it’s more likely that Foye comes off the bench, which kills his value completely, as a healthy Agent Zero commands nearly 40 mpg. There’s an outside chance that Agent Zero isn’t healthy, but he is working out with one of the league’s most reputable miracle-workers, and offseason reports from coaching staff, other star players (e.g. Lebron James), and Arenas himself say that he’s ready and better than ever.
