Robert Fung is an avid basketball fan, a 10+ year fantasy NBA veteran, and the Basketball Team Lead on Rotokingdom.net. Chicago born and raised, he grew up with the Michael Jordan era and continues to root for the Bulls.
We’re a couple weeks into the season and you’re starting to get a feel for which players are working for you and which aren’t. You can’t just drop a valuable player just because he’s your black sheep. Fantasy NBA isn’t won that way, and neither is the real-life NBA, Nellie. So, you need to make some trades. Just like in the stock market, you want to time your trades perfectly – at resistance points (sell high) and support levels (buy low). Here’s your sell high, buy low for fantasy NBA for the past two weeks.
Sell High
Brandon Jennings:
Jennings has taken full control over the Bucks. This little known player, who skipped college to play in Europe until he met the NBA age limit, who played just 18 mpg in about 40 games and put up about 6-2-2 with a whopping 3.5 steals, who skipped the Eurobasket camp that many scouts attended just for him, who nearly fell out of the 2009 lottery and was the fourth PG selected, is now averaging 21-5-4-steal-almost 2 treys with 46/86 and has put up monster scoring games of 32 and 55 (with at least another 3-5 cats to boot) in his past 2 games. Can he continue at this pace? Sure. Can he improve? Probably. However, you don’t know if/when he’ll hit a wall, how Michael Redd is really going to impact Jennings’ game, and whether these explosions were really just due to matchups (GSW is an opposing team’s gold mine). If you can sell him for a proven second rounder, you won’t need to worry about that and you’ll still have just as much value on your team. Just don’t settle for any less than top 25-35. If you can’t get anything, ride the wave.
Chris Kaman:
The Caveman shed his long blonde locks and is putting up 22-9 and nearly a steal and 2 blocks with 54% FG shooting. His TOs are horrible, especially for a center, but the rest puts him in the top 10 and just outside the top 5 Cs. On top of that, he’s playing 37 mpg and hasn’t missed a game yet. He’s certainly capable of continuing this line, but you don’t want to be the owner who got stuck with a dud (like me back in his breakout ’07 year). The last time Kaman played 80+ games was his rookie year, he’s had just as many sub-70 game seasons as 70+ game seasons, and he’s coming off a 31 game season. Add the fact that this year’s hottest rookie also plays in the post and will return in the next month or so, and it’s better to just not risk it with Kaman.
Andrew Bynum:
The kid’s growing up, and outgrew Kareem this summer. With a statline like 22-12-steal-1.4 blocks and 59% FG shooting, I guess I can’t blame him too much. His goal was to be an all-star, and he’s backing his words up. However, he’s already missed two games due to injuries, played only about half of the past two seasons, and only has one season (out of four) with more than 50 games. Add the fact that he hasn’t shared the paint with Pau Gasol yet, and his rebounds seem a bit inflated. Add Bynum to the trio of guys that are playing at the top of their game with a key teammate out and other risks to consider.
Just about to drop sell highs:
Larry Hughes, Ryan Anderson, Andray Blatche, Erick Dampier
Buy Low
Andre Miller :
‘Dre’s value nearly bottomed out at the start of the season as coach McMillan thought Dre would be better off the bench. McMillan has switched to a 3-guard lineup, starting Miller, and all of a sudden they’re on a 6-game winning streak. Coincidence? Not for ‘Dre, who has averaged 12-5-6 in that timespan, up from 8-5-2 as a sub. He’s seeing an additional 6 mpg and is likely to get a little more in the future. Blake has scored double-digits just twice, +3 assists just twice, and is shooting sub-30% from the field in the past 3 games. I don’t doubt that McMillan won’t fix it if it aint broke, but, when push comes to shove, Blake’s gotta go and ‘Dre will be the lone man standing with Roy in the backcourt.
Amare Stoudemire:
STAT’s coming off a couple significant unrelated surgeries, so there is some risk attached to him, but he’s a great player in a fantastic system. His current numbers are down across the board and on the decline for 2 years, so the time to pounce is now. Phoenix is running and gunning like the OG team that defined this decade’s small ball rage, and Amare is one of the cornerstones. In addition, he’s playing for a contract, so he’s got some motivation to stay healthy and prove his worth.
Gerald Wallace:
Crash’s boards are a career high, but that’s about the only thing positive to say about his season so far. His points, assists, and blocks are down. I can account for the points with his career low FG%, which is down 10-15% from any of the past 5 seasons. I can account for the assists by looking at the team’s output of 77.5 ppg in the 7 games averaging less than 100 points. Since he averaged almost a block or more over the previous 5 seasons and there hasn’t been a major system or role change, I’m inclined to believe those rejections will go back up.
John Salmons:
Salmons has always been a quiet fantasy produce. Nobody ever raves about him and you rarely hear buzz. With 12 ppg, 4 rpg, and 3 apg, somebody might lose sight of the across the board contributions and top 10 spg. The shot attempts are there (2nd on the team), but he’s seriously struggled to connect. Except Hinrich, the Bulls don’t really have a good shooter to spread the floor for Salmons. Deng is more mid-range, Noah is always in the post, and Rose likes to take it to the hoop. With a career average of mid 40s and a last two season’s average of 47s, Salmons should start scoring with more efficiency.
Injury Buy Lows:
Pau Gasol, Kevin Martin, Devin Harris, Andris Biedrins, Antawn Jamison, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love
