Allen Moll is an avid NBA and College Basketball fan who watches and studies games religiously and coaches youth basketball in his native Lehigh Valley region of Pennsylvania. Allen is a regular columnist for the Hoopdoctors, Bleacherreport.com, UpperDeckblog.com, and his own blog, Hoops Haven .
The impending disaster of an upcoming season for the Houston Rockets has me thinking that we’ve seen this scenario before. A good but not great, perennial playoff team loses one of the game’s most dynamic centers for the season due to injury, leaving it’s fanbase to suffer through a horrendously bad season, only to be rewarded by getting the #1 pick in the draft the following season. The team lands their franchise player and he leads them to the first of four NBA Championships over the next 10 years. The year was 1996, when the San Antonio Spurs lost “The Admiral” David Robinson for the season. The Spurs won only 20 games, before landing Tim Duncan in the ’97 draft, and the rest is dynasty history. Will the ’09-’10 Rockets follow the same path? Taking a deeper look at the sequence of events and the players involved shows just how eerily similar the two seasons are even though they are 13 years apart.
’96 San Antonio Spurs
The ’95-’96 San Antonio Spurs were coming off of a very successful stretch seeing them finish 1st or 2nd in their division and making the playoffs for the previous 7 consecutive seasons since they drafted Hall of Fame center David Robinson with the 1st overall pick in the ’87 NBA Draft. The 30 year old center was among the league leaders in scoring, rebounding, and blocks in each of those 7 seasons with averages of more than 20+ points, 10+ rebounds, and 3 blocks. Robinson had made 7 straight All-Star appearances. The team was led by Robinson and Sean Elliot, also a 7 year veteran, in scoring. The Spurs won 50+ games and advanced to the Western Conference Semi-Finals, losing to eventual Western Champion Utah Jazz. They then lost David Robinson to injury for virtually the entire ’96-’97 season since he played in only 6 games. They were led by an aging superstar, Dominique Wilkins in scoring, at 18 ppg. They finished a horrendous 20-62, helping them earn the #1 pick in the ”97 draft where they selected their next franchise player, “The Big Fundamental” Tim Duncan. He, along with a healthy Robinson back the following season, won the franchise’s first of 4 NBA titles in just their second season together. Dominique Wilkins didn’t return after leading the Spurs through that horrendous ”96-’97 campaign.
’09 Houston Rockets
In the Rockets case, they are coming off of there own successful string of seasons of winning 45 or more games and making the playoffs in 5 of the previous 6 seasons since drafting their dynamic franchise center Yao Ming, with the first overall pick in the ’02 NBA Draft. The 28 year old center has been among the league leaders in scoring, rebounding, and blocks in each of those previous 7 seasons with averages of 19.1 ppg and 9.3 rebounds, and 3.3 blocks. Ming also has made 7 straight All-Star appearances. The team was led by Ming and Ron Artest, a 10 year NBA veteran, in scoring. Last season the Rockets won 53 games and advanced to the Western Conference Semi-Finals, losing to Western Champion Lakers, who went on to win another World Championship.
Fast forward to this season and the Rockets are without the services of All-Star center Yao Ming for the season. The only difference in the scenerio is that Ron Artest throws a curveball by defecting to the Lakers, while Trevor Ariza is brought in. What does this mean for the Rockets this season? Will they continue to follow the same path as the Spurs? How does the impending return of Tracy McGrady enter into this equation?
Imagine the possibilities:
1) If things happen as predicted and the Rockets suffer through a horrific season, finishing with one of the ten worst records in the league, they then have at least a chance of landing the #1 pick, and thus selecting their next franchise player(John Wall, Derrick Favors, etc.) to team up with Ming in the upcoming seasons.
2) During the Spurs disastrous season, a aging veteran and future hall of Famer Dominique Wilkins led them in scoring. Could the possible future Hall of Famer, Tracy McGrady, who is poised to return from injuries himself, come back and drop buckets at an alarming rate to give the team some sort of offensive spark? In the Spurs case, Wilkins was not back after leading his team offensively. Consequentially, McGrady is in the last year of his contract. Could the parallels continue as we see “T-Mac” leave the team by getting another free agent deal because he showed he still has his skills?
3) And Lastly,……….(bear with me!)………… even though it is a stretch right now, but could the Rockets franchise become the next dynasty in the 2010’s? True…………they will not be good next season, but is their roster truly that bad(for a bad roster see NY Knicks)? What if they follow suit and get lucky enough to land a John Wall caliber player through the draft to be paired with Yao Ming, Louis Scola, Aaron Brooks, Chuck Hayes, and any additional free agents like Carmelo Anthony, Michael Redd, and Richard Hamilton, who will become free agents over the next few seasons? Additionally, Tracy McGrady’s monster deal will be off of their books, so the Rockets should have the money to sign a free agent to a max deal.
Hopefully Rockets management will read this article. We have just come up with the blueprint for the next 5-10 years in Houston. Although it seems far fetched, could the “Red Nation” see their team on the verge of the NBA’s next dynasty?
