Fantasy Hoops: Sell High, Buy Low, Week 9
Robert Fung is an avid basketball fan, a 10+ year fantasy NBA veteran, and the Basketball Team Lead on Rotokingdom.net. Chicago born and raised, he grew up with the Michael Jordan era and continues to root for the Bulls.
If you’re near the bottom of the standings, you should look to start moving for players producing now. You may need to buy high and hope to ride the wave for as long as you can. If you can wait a bit, I’ve added a short note on expected returns to help you decide when to buy low.
Buy Low
Jose Calderon –
I know I mentioned him before, but with the indefinite timeline for return, owners may be more anxious to move him as the weeks go by. There’s no guarantee for health or production, because he’s struggled with injuries in years’ past and because the system has changed with a ball-handling swingman (Turkoglu).
Timeframe: long-term
Amare Stoudemire –
While STAT’s boards and steals were slightly up this past month, his blocks and FG% were down. When healthy, he generally hits above 50% from the field. In Nov, he hit almost 59%, but in Dec, he hit almost 52%. With less hustle and more TOs, you may be able to coax a small discount out. PHO is playing better than they ever have in recent years, and Amare is leading that charge.
Timeframe: immediate
Al Jefferson –
His hustle was down last month, but, otherwise, AlJeff is starting to round into form. His FG%, boards, and points have been on the rise for 3 consecutive months, but are still below the bar set during the previous 3 years. Expect him to get a little better as he gets more healthy and the team starts to gel with their new PG and other frontcourt star.
Timeframe: short-term
Devin Harris –
Harris’ point and steal totals hide his low FG% and high TOs. His FG% and 3PT% are career lows, and can really hurt you with 14 attempts and nearly 4 attempts per game, respectively. Also, his APG have fallen nearly below his DAL days. These could all be attributed to team failures, as the Nets are worst in the league in PPG and FG%.
Timeframe: short-term
Spencer Hawes –
Hawes was demoted to the bench for a few games. He’s been recently re-inserted into the starting lineup, but hasn’t been any more consistent or productive. However, at 10-5-2-steal-block (rounding up) over the past month, and just a smidgeon better over the whole season, his value is near bottom. The Kings’ frontcourt is the most shallow and weak spot in their roster, and the FO can’t really lean on Brockman, a rookie, or Kenny Thomas, a 10 year vet.
Timeframe: immediate
TJ Ford –
Ford’s low points have generally been correlated to injuries. This year is a significant regression from last year without injuries. His per minute averages are way down, his minutes and PPG are reaching career lows, and his APG and SPG have already hit career lows. The only significant difference is +Dunleavy, -Granger. Once they start playing better as a team, in a fast-paced system where only Earl Watson, who couldn’t beat out Luke Ridnour, can contend for his position, Ford should turn it around.
Timeframe: short-term
Sell High
Raymond Felton –
Wow. 54% from the field in the past month, averaging 15.5 PPG on nearly 12 FGA/gm? 54% FG is the best from any guard. From a chucker with a career FG% average just a hair above 40, that’s a shocker that is bound to drop. SJax may be commanding some defensive pressure, but Felton can’t keep this up. Felton has also hit 19 straight FTs, pushing his monthly average to 10% above his season.
Yi Jianlian –
This might be the one time when Yi fits this category. He’s struggled with inconsistency and indecision his whole career, but has just recovered from an injury and regained his starting gig. In his past 2 games, he’s been the #2 scorer each time, averaging about 50% FG with 7 RPG. This year was supposed to be his breakout year – no competition, a solid international showing, and added bulk. However, last year was supposed to be a breakout too, and he went on hot/cold streaks through every month.
Kendrick Perkins –
Perk is quiet and underrated, so you should probably add a comment with your trade offer, but his 68% FG shooting, and 13-9-2 blocks line are outstanding. With Big Baby back in the lineup and the addition of Sheed in the offseason, Perk should be able to rest up for a nice playoff push. While that helps BOS, that hurts your fantasy playoffs. Like a few other Celtics and Spurs, look to ship Perk off before the final few months, when a few mpg drop should not be a surprise.
Beno Udrih –
You won’t get much for him, but if you need to throw in a little extra value, Udrih is a good candidate. He doesn’t hurt anywhere and helps almost everywhere. However, his playing time and shot attempts will drop off when KevMart rejoins the backcourt. Use him for an upgrade on some other player that you’re shopping.
Fantasy Hoops: Sell High, Buy Low, Week 7
Robert Fung is an avid basketball fan, a 10+ year fantasy NBA veteran, and the Basketball Team Lead on Rotokingdom.net. Chicago born and raised, he grew up with the Michael Jordan era and continues to root for the Bulls.
Sell High
Tim Duncan – 20-10-4-2 blocks with 55% FG shooting is a major throwback and 82% FT shooting is some sweet icing. It’s been a couple years since he’s shot that well from the field, more than a couple years since he’s averaged 4 APG, and he’s never shot this well from the line. When Pop wants to give TimmyD some rest before playoffs and goes on an unofficial minute count or gets some surprise DNPs, you’ll be happy you traded him.
Marcus Camby – Camby consistently provides rebounds, steals, blocks, and even some assists when he’s on the court. However, as anybody that’s been around the block can tell you, he isn’t consistently on the court. This year, he has not been injured; so far, so good. The other worry is that, in about a month, Blake Griffin will eat up some playing time from Al Thornton, Marcus Camby, or both. Camby never needs a ton of minutes, but less minutes is never a good thing. Camby is generally undervalued, because he derives almost no value from scoring, but if you can get top 25 value, take it while you can.
Tyreke Evans – As soon as Jennings hit his slump in mid-Nov, people started jumping on the Evans for ROY bandwagon. Those people are somewhat justified by Evans’ consistent play. He’s scored more than 20 pts in 12 of the last 15, dished 4 or more assists, grabbed 4 or more boards, and made at least 1 steal in 13 of the last 15, and shot over 50% from the field in 9 of the last 15. His TOs outnumber his treys/steals/blocks combined, but his a rookie guard and puts up numbers almost everywhere else, so it’s somewhat excusable. Like Jennings, Evans could keep this up, but why take the risk?
Rajon Rondo – Rondo was already having a great season, but is seriously on fire lately.
Season: 12-9.5-4-2.6 steals and 53% FG shooting
Last 2 weeks: 14-11-4-2.4 steals and 51% FG shooting
Last week: 16-12.7-6.3-2.7 steals-0.7 blocks
Those numbers are the definition of heating up. He’s a future keeper stud, but redraft leagues should try to capitalize on his value by selling while he’s on a roll.
Buy Low
Jose Calderon – Calderon’s struggling not only with injuries, but with his team. His 6 APG are nearly 33% less than last year’s average. Part of it may be due to a ball handling forward, like Turk, but, if you can get Calderon near his current value, it’s a good high upside risk. He’s shown flashes, but hasn’t been able to consistently get the job done.
Caron Butler – 5 year low in PPG and FGA/gm, career low in APG, near career low in SPG and FG%? WAS is struggling to find their roles and hit their stride. Everybody, except for Agent Zero himself, is waiting for Arenas to break out, and the Hibachi is keeping the team cold.
Rasheed Wallace – Sheed is averaging less than 20 mpg, but expect that to rise in the final few months as they give their core a few more minutes of rest. He’s still at the door of the trey/steal/block club, but career lows in PPG, RPG, and FG% should make him cheap. Big Baby will eventually return, but his 7 rp35 leave much to be desired.
We’ve already played a quarter of the season, and teams are starting to settle into their rankings. Teams with injured studs in the bottom ranks may start to get antsy. So, go fishing for Granger, Kevin Martin, Jameer Nelson, Lou Williams, Blake Griffin, or Kirilenko see what bites you can get.
Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 6
Robert Fung is an avid basketball fan, a 10+ year fantasy NBA veteran, and the Basketball Team Lead on Rotokingdom.net. Chicago born and raised, he grew up with the Michael Jordan era and continues to root for the Bulls.
Hope you guys had a great Thanksgiving and lots of turkey, gravy, stuffing, mashed potatoes, candied yams, brown rice, white rice, whatever you ate. More importantly, I hope you were able to spend good time with people that you care about, because I did. So, getting back to fantasy NBA, a couple key players have returned (CP3, Devin Harris, Jamison, Bogut, Kevin Love, Courtney Lee, etc), a couple key players have gotten hurt (LouWill, Oden, Raja Bell, etc), and I’m sure you’re looking to make some changes. These pickups might be on your wire:
Dahntay Jones (40%) –
Jones is on a tear this year, and I have no idea where it’s coming from. Last year, in DEN, he was a token starter, averaging just 18 mpg, and supposedly due to his defensive focus. Eyeballing it, you could probably have counted the number of double-digit scoring games on two hands (and at most two hands and a foot). In less than 20 games this season, you can count the number of single-digit scoring games on one hand. His value is increased by good hustle from a SG and percentages are decent to boot. For a decent all-around player without treys, look at DJ.
Will Bynum (39%) –
With the exception of his low 3s, Bynumite is a pretty solid waiver wire guard and is one of the bright spots in one of our country’s darkest places. In the past month, he’s posted 14-5-3-steal with 46/82. Be wary of his TOs and take careful note that 2 key Pistons are close to returning (Rip/Tay) and 1 already has returned (BG), but ride Bynum until his minutes drop below 24 consistently.
Luke Ridnour (37%) –
Ridnour is averaging around 13-5-3-steal-trey with an amazing 53/91 and 1.3 TOs over the past month. We haven’t seen this kind of production since he was pegged for potential breakout as a Seattle Supersonic. Even then, I’m not sure that we saw these 20+ point explosions. Michael Redd is still out, which gives Ridnour a little longer leash. Ride Ridnour while he’s hot.
Joel Przybilla (29%) –
Run to pick up the Vanilla Gorilla if you need a big man. As long as you have somebody to drop, go pick him up and then come back to read the rest of this article. Greg Oden just went down with a season-ending surgery, leaving Przy to pick up even more of the slack. In less than half a game, Przy averaged 8 boards, a block, and greater than 57% FG the past two years. His per minute averages are about the same this year, but his minutes are about to go up. POR isn’t very deep. Outside of their max-contract star, LaMarcus Aldridge, POR’s next tallest player is just 6’9”, so we’re talking HOU short. Rumors are that POR will run small, but Przy will still need to play decent time and is certainly capable of producing. If only we could get those triple-double with pts/boards/blocks back….
Andres Nocioni (14%) –
Noc is back in action, starting for the Sacramento Kings. His percentages are down, but if you want some cheap points (low to mid teens) with a couple threes, some boards, and the occasional hustle, he should be available. His production is pretty consistent as long as he gets consistent minutes, and he’s healthy (4 nearly perfect seasons out of 5), so the level of risk is low.
Mickael Pietrus (13%) –
Think Noc, but with less consistency/boards, and more threes/hustle. He’s maintained his role even with Shard back in the lineup, so it’s possible he keeps this up. However, in a fully healthy ORL team, MP is likely the 5th option in the starting lineup. Lucky for you, ORL won’t be fully healthy for at least another couple weeks to month.
Nick Young (9%) –
Nick Young is currently just a scoring specialist, and nothing really all that special at that. However, at 9%, he should be available if you need some more points. He’s been filling in as a starter in WAS, and occasionally chips in a steal or trey and some boards.
C.J. Watson (8%) –
Watson comes with the usual GSW caveat, and even moreso, because he was yoyoed around the lineup last year, but, as of the last game, he’s starting. In addition, he even made some waves a few games before getting the starting spot. In the past week, he’s put up numbers everywhere except blocks, averaging 15-4-3 with nearly 2 steals, 1.5 treys, 56/86 percentages and 1.3 TOs. It most likely won’t last, but you need to take it while you can if you need to drop a Collison, Alston, or other injury fill-in.
Wesley Matthews (3%) –
We’ve seen some of his scoring potential before this season, when he posted four double-digit games out of six. He’s been starting for awhile now and his minutes have climbed recently. He’s also posted some decent SG lines (pts, 3s, steals) in that period. He’s a rookie, and has already gone through a patch where he’s faded away, but keep an eye on him, because he could surprise you by the end of the year.
Jonas Jerebko (3%) –
The Swedish love this kid and DET is pretty fond of him too. By averaging almost 11-7-steal with 46/82, he convinced the coach to give him minutes even when Rip and Tay are back. Even though DET isn’t the all-star studded team of year’s past, that’s a pretty good accomplishment for a rookie and the first ever Swedish NBA player. He’s more roto-friendly, because he has low TOs and not too many assists, blocks, or treys, but still could have some value for you.
Fantasy Hoops: Sell High, Buy Low, Week 3
Robert Fung is an avid basketball fan, a 10+ year fantasy NBA veteran, and the Basketball Team Lead on Rotokingdom.net. Chicago born and raised, he grew up with the Michael Jordan era and continues to root for the Bulls.
We’re a couple weeks into the season and you’re starting to get a feel for which players are working for you and which aren’t. You can’t just drop a valuable player just because he’s your black sheep. Fantasy NBA isn’t won that way, and neither is the real-life NBA, Nellie. So, you need to make some trades. Just like in the stock market, you want to time your trades perfectly – at resistance points (sell high) and support levels (buy low). Here’s your sell high, buy low for fantasy NBA for the past two weeks.
Sell High
Brandon Jennings:
Jennings has taken full control over the Bucks. This little known player, who skipped college to play in Europe until he met the NBA age limit, who played just 18 mpg in about 40 games and put up about 6-2-2 with a whopping 3.5 steals, who skipped the Eurobasket camp that many scouts attended just for him, who nearly fell out of the 2009 lottery and was the fourth PG selected, is now averaging 21-5-4-steal-almost 2 treys with 46/86 and has put up monster scoring games of 32 and 55 (with at least another 3-5 cats to boot) in his past 2 games. Can he continue at this pace? Sure. Can he improve? Probably. However, you don’t know if/when he’ll hit a wall, how Michael Redd is really going to impact Jennings’ game, and whether these explosions were really just due to matchups (GSW is an opposing team’s gold mine). If you can sell him for a proven second rounder, you won’t need to worry about that and you’ll still have just as much value on your team. Just don’t settle for any less than top 25-35. If you can’t get anything, ride the wave.
Chris Kaman:
The Caveman shed his long blonde locks and is putting up 22-9 and nearly a steal and 2 blocks with 54% FG shooting. His TOs are horrible, especially for a center, but the rest puts him in the top 10 and just outside the top 5 Cs. On top of that, he’s playing 37 mpg and hasn’t missed a game yet. He’s certainly capable of continuing this line, but you don’t want to be the owner who got stuck with a dud (like me back in his breakout ’07 year). The last time Kaman played 80+ games was his rookie year, he’s had just as many sub-70 game seasons as 70+ game seasons, and he’s coming off a 31 game season. Add the fact that this year’s hottest rookie also plays in the post and will return in the next month or so, and it’s better to just not risk it with Kaman.
Andrew Bynum:
The kid’s growing up, and outgrew Kareem this summer. With a statline like 22-12-steal-1.4 blocks and 59% FG shooting, I guess I can’t blame him too much. His goal was to be an all-star, and he’s backing his words up. However, he’s already missed two games due to injuries, played only about half of the past two seasons, and only has one season (out of four) with more than 50 games. Add the fact that he hasn’t shared the paint with Pau Gasol yet, and his rebounds seem a bit inflated. Add Bynum to the trio of guys that are playing at the top of their game with a key teammate out and other risks to consider.
Just about to drop sell highs:
Larry Hughes, Ryan Anderson, Andray Blatche, Erick Dampier
Buy Low
Andre Miller :
‘Dre’s value nearly bottomed out at the start of the season as coach McMillan thought Dre would be better off the bench. McMillan has switched to a 3-guard lineup, starting Miller, and all of a sudden they’re on a 6-game winning streak. Coincidence? Not for ‘Dre, who has averaged 12-5-6 in that timespan, up from 8-5-2 as a sub. He’s seeing an additional 6 mpg and is likely to get a little more in the future. Blake has scored double-digits just twice, +3 assists just twice, and is shooting sub-30% from the field in the past 3 games. I don’t doubt that McMillan won’t fix it if it aint broke, but, when push comes to shove, Blake’s gotta go and ‘Dre will be the lone man standing with Roy in the backcourt.
Amare Stoudemire:
STAT’s coming off a couple significant unrelated surgeries, so there is some risk attached to him, but he’s a great player in a fantastic system. His current numbers are down across the board and on the decline for 2 years, so the time to pounce is now. Phoenix is running and gunning like the OG team that defined this decade’s small ball rage, and Amare is one of the cornerstones. In addition, he’s playing for a contract, so he’s got some motivation to stay healthy and prove his worth.
Gerald Wallace:
Crash’s boards are a career high, but that’s about the only thing positive to say about his season so far. His points, assists, and blocks are down. I can account for the points with his career low FG%, which is down 10-15% from any of the past 5 seasons. I can account for the assists by looking at the team’s output of 77.5 ppg in the 7 games averaging less than 100 points. Since he averaged almost a block or more over the previous 5 seasons and there hasn’t been a major system or role change, I’m inclined to believe those rejections will go back up.
John Salmons:
Salmons has always been a quiet fantasy produce. Nobody ever raves about him and you rarely hear buzz. With 12 ppg, 4 rpg, and 3 apg, somebody might lose sight of the across the board contributions and top 10 spg. The shot attempts are there (2nd on the team), but he’s seriously struggled to connect. Except Hinrich, the Bulls don’t really have a good shooter to spread the floor for Salmons. Deng is more mid-range, Noah is always in the post, and Rose likes to take it to the hoop. With a career average of mid 40s and a last two season’s average of 47s, Salmons should start scoring with more efficiency.
Injury Buy Lows:
Pau Gasol, Kevin Martin, Devin Harris, Andris Biedrins, Antawn Jamison, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love
Full Court Fantasy: Roto Sleepers
Robert Fung is an avid basketball fan, a 10+ year fantasy NBA veteran, and the Basketball Team Lead on Rotokingdom.net. Chicago born and raised, he grew up with the Michael Jordan era and continues to root for the Bulls.
In Roto leagues with a standard 82 games played max, the goal is to compile the best cumulative stats out of your active positions with only 82 games at each position. Players on your bench do not contribute to your cumulative stats. There are only 82 games in the regular NBA season. Therefore, if your starters were magically healthy for the full season, your bench would go completely to waste.
There are a few strategies to use for your bench: trade bait, specialized players, and DNP fill-ins. Trade bait means that you could use your bench players to add value and trade up for a better player. Specialized players may be useful in roto, if you find that your team is deficient in one area (produced by your bench specialist) and could afford less in other areas (produced by your starter).
The focus of this article is the DNP fill-in situation. Players miss games for personal reasons (weddings, funerals, babies, etc), DNP-CD (Coach’s Decision not to play them), or injuries. Only a couple dozen top 200 players played all 82 games, so you’re bound to be short on games played. However, you have the option to play your bench player at any time in the season for a makeup game – just swap him in for your active starter and swap out when he’s done with the games that you want. This gives you the flexibility to reach a little in the latter rounds of the draft, to pick somebody with great potential that may or may not pan out. You can do the same in H2H leagues, but you’re very much under pressure to have all of your players perform out the gates and can’t usually afford to wait too long for a slow start.
Here are some players that could have much improved value under specific circumstances, and are different from your traditional sleeper in that you may need to endure a slow, painful start and may need to exercise patience:
Paul Millsap – Millsap has shown flashes of potential as a traditional down-low banger power forward, but, last season, he had an extended opportunity to showcase his skills. As a starter, he posted 16-10-2 with 1 spg, 1 bpg, 54% FG shooting, and only 2 TOs. He also racked up a ridiculous 19 straight double-doubles. Unfortunately, that only happened because Carlos Boozer was injured. Carlos Boozer has been the team’s starting PF for 5 years, and regained his starting spot when he returned from injury. Fortunately for Millsap, Boozer has publicly demanded a trade and management is trying to shop him. Another bonus for Millsap is that Utah re-signed him this past season despite Portland’s offer to steal him. The cat is out of the bag and Millsap was serviceable even as a backup, so Millsap will most likely get drafted in rounds 6-8, but could post 3rd or 4th round value if Boozer is traded mid-season.
James Harden – Harden is a rookie, and rookies are usually over-hyped and tend to underperform based on their draft position, because there is an adjustment period and rookies usually don’t get as much opportunity. However, he is a rookie that plays for a team (OKC) that is very committed to the youth movement (their core three of their starting five have less than 3 years experience). The incumbent starter (Sefolosha) at his position (SG) performed admirably last season, especially on the defensive end, but given time, Harden could get the start and post mid teens scoring with some treys, boards, and dimes. The team sorely lacks his perimeter shooting, so the team definitely has a need, and nbadraft.net most likens him to Ginobili or Roy, so he should have the talent. With the hype, Harden’s likely to go in rounds 8-10, but could outperform that by a few rounds.
Tracy McGrady – TMac has been drafted in the 1st through 5th rounds of the draft every year for the past 9 years. While his percentages could be a bit higher and his TOs a bit lower, he has provided great all-around numbers with career averages of 22-6-5-steal-block-three, including his first two years, where he was given less than 23 mpg and scored in the single digits. He’s had a lot of injury trouble in recent years, and is coming off microfracture surgery, but, if he ever plays, you could get great value out of your last pick. Without the IR spot in H2H, TMac could be a season-killer in H2H, but could be a season-winner in roto, since you can let him rot on your bench all season without a penalty.
Randy Foye – Foye improved as the starting PG for Minny in each of his 3 years. Last season, he posted 16-4-3 with a steal and 1.6 treys. This past offseason, he was traded to Washington, where he’ll likely be a backup G. However, a couple things could swing his way. He’s always been more of a combo guard than a playmaking PG. The starting SG (Stevenson) has been on the team for 3 years, but hasn’t really made a strong contribution and is almost 30. Additionally, Gilbert Arenas, the team’s superstar PG, is coming off 2 years of surgeries and foiled returns. Arenas is reportedly in his best shape, 100% recovered, and has all of his quickness, but the injury risks and concerns won’t go away for at least a little while. If Foye gets 30+ minutes at either position, he could easily outperform his draft position, which is in the late rounds to even undrafted.
Brandon Rush – Mike Dunleavy, the team’s starting SG, had a breakout season 2 years ago, but was cut short last season by a nearly career-ending knee injury. Coach decided to give the first-round rookie, Rush, a try in the final months of the season. As a starter, Rush posted 16-5-trey with nearly a steal and a block on 47% FG shooting. Recent reports say that the coach is hoping Dunleavy returns for the first-game of the season, significantly ahead of the initial return date which was slated for January. If Dunleavy can’t go, or does go and injures himself again, Rush could be big money. Since Rush is likely to get drafted in the late rounds, if at all, he’s well worth the risk in a roto league.
Darko Milicic – Darko was drafted as the 2nd overall pick in the 2003 draft and is easily labeled a ‘bust’. He’s been traded to his 4th team in 6 years, and every year we hope for that breakout. The hope isn’t just based on draft hype, however. In less than 7 mpg, over the course of nearly 100 games in 3 seasons with DET, his 36-min averages were nearly 12 points, 6 rebounds, and a beastly 3 blocks. He maintained or slightly beat those 36-min averages in ORL. Unfortunately, he’s never been given 36 mpg and topped out a just under 24 mpg. People, including Knicks GM, expect Darko to finally break out under a fast-paced D’Antoni offense. The only things holding him back are himself, and Eddy Curry, who, despite reports that he’s dropped 30 lbs and is ready to ball, is the recipient of the coined term ‘Curry Line’, which is a phrase used to describe a player with more turnovers than assists, steals, and blocks. With Darko’s previous history, it may take him some time, but if he can shed his label of bust and beat out other 1-cat bust, Eddy Curry, he could be a fantasy gem. He’s another player likely to be drafted late or undrafted.
Stephen Curry – Curry is another lottery pick, but in a different situation than James Harden’s situation. Curry was THE leading scorer in the NCAA last year, and also posted good apg/rpg and great spg. Curry’s team doesn’t have great options at his position (PG), and is a fast-paced offense. My biggest concern isn’t even the rookie hurdle, it’s the ‘genius’ known as Nellie. Coach Nelson employed probably over a dozen starting lineups last year, some of which included regular season PG tryouts. On top of that, he benched (read: DNP-CD) his indisputably best players for entire random games at random times. That’s a huge risk, even for a veteran. Stephen Curry will be drafted late or undrafted, and could easily get in Nellie’s doghouse, but the talent is certainly there.
The Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 2
Robert Fung is an avid basketball fan, a 10+ year fantasy NBA veteran, and the Basketball Team Lead on Rotokingdom.net. Chicago born and raised, he grew up with the Michael Jordan era and continues to root for the Bulls.
Wouldn’t you have loved to roster Joel Przybilla for his near triple doubles with blocks in ’04-‘05, Boris Diaw for his fantastic year in ’05-‘06, or Al Jefferson back in ’06-’07, or Eric Gordon last year? All those guys were likely undrafted and available on the waiver wire to start the season and broke out for tremendous value. Pickups like those can lead you to a strong finish, so it’s important to keep an eye on all players and not just the big names. It goes without saying that value is in the eye of the beholder (read: player must fit your strategy), but here are some suggestions for guys to pick up right now with the percentage owned in Yahoo! League in parenthesis.
Larry Hughes (58%)
I won’t normally list players with such a high ownage rate, but Hughes is too good to pass up right now. Nate Robinson and Al Harrington are two of the league’s most productive bench players. NateRob is out for at least another week, which means the burden in the backcourt goes primarily to Duhon and Hughes. Hughes certainly has the talent to make the best of it, posting about 12-3-3- with almost 1.5 steals and 1.5 treys in the past two years with under 30 mpg and peaking four years ago with about 22-6-5-3 steals-trey. With nearly a 33% increase in minutes, expect Hughes to rack up the points, steals, and treys with some boards and dimes.
Shallow leagues: pick him up if you have somebody that didn’t pan out
12 team leagues: pick him up
Deeper leagues: pick him up immediately
Marreese Speights (39%)
Speights has some good potential, but he’s stuck behind Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert right now. He’s produced very well in just 23 mpg. In three games, he’s shown a 100% increase in points, rebounds, assists, and steals with just a 50% increase in minutes. Add stellar percentages, a block, and manageable TOs and you end up with mid-draft value off the waiver wire.
Shallow leagues: not until the frontcourt opens up
12 team leagues: pick him up if you have somebody that didn’t pan out
Deeper leagues: pick him up immediately
Ryan Gomes (34%)
Gomes has never put up sexy statlines, and most likely won’t (at least this year), but he’s a good complementary player (doesn’t hurt you anywhere), he’s consistent (going into his 4th year with this kind of production), he’s efficient (good percentages and low TOs) and he’s healthy (perfect attendance the last two years). You could do a lot worse than good points, a handful of boards, and a steal and a trey when replacing your last draft pick.
Shallow leagues: not worth it
12 team leagues: pick him up if you don’t see a breakout candidate on the wire
Deeper leagues: pick him up immediately
Anthony Morrow (25%)
Ammo is for gamblers, just like half the GSW roster. He is capable of ridiculously big scoring and 3s games, but you just can’t count on Coach Don Nelson. Nellie constantly changes his lineups and doesn’t play players just because he doesn’t feel like it.
Shallow leagues: wait until Stephen Jackson gets traded
12 team leagues: wait and see if he can break into Nellie’s faves, or if you’re a risk-taker
Deeper leagues: pick him up and pray
Rafer Alston (18%)
Devin Harris is out at least 2 more weeks. Keyon Dooling is also out. That makes Alston the defacto starting PG, because he’s the only true PG on the roster. Skip can kill your percentages, but can also be good in points, assists, steals, threes, and even boards, while managing decent TOs. Prior to this year, he’s had value for 5 years straight.
Shallow leagues: probably not enough value due to percentages
12 team leagues: pick him up if you play small ball (percentages not advised in roto leagues)
Deeper leagues: pick him up immediately
Chuck Hayes (19%)
The Rockets frontcourt is pretty weak and Hayes is getting the opportunity he needs.
Hayes will be a great source of boards and steals and can pitch in points from time to time. He’s especially good in small ball teams, because he doesn’t go to the line often and will average at least 1 spg from your C.
Shallow leagues: not worth it until he gets more assertive on offense
12 team leagues: pick him up
Deeper leagues: pick him up immediately
Beno Udrih (13%)
Kevin Martin will be out for at least 8 weeks due to surgery on his wrist. Beno failed to break out last year when he was given the starting job, but still managed to provide borderline PG3 numbers (some points, assists, and a steal). The Kings have other interesting options for their lineup if Beno doesn’t gain traction, but they’ve also shown some confidence and given him decent time so far.
Shallow leagues: not worth it
12 team leagues: pick him up if you have somebody that didn’t pan out
Deeper leagues: pick him up immediately
Dahntay Jones (9%)
Jones started in DEN last year as a defensive specialist, but ceded most of the time to the electric JR Smith. All of a sudden, Jones is getting starters’ minutes and broke into the starting lineup in IND. With the exception of 3s, Jones is putting up the numbers that we expected from Brandon Rush. Jones has put together four games (out of five) with 17 or more ppg on good FG%, a bunch of boards, and some dimes/steals every so often. Ride him while he has the hot hand, but be prepared to drop him if you see the situation change (especially since Troy Murphy’s injury is likely the main reason why Jones is starting now).
Shallow leagues: pick him up if you have somebody that didn’t pan out
12 team leagues: pick him up
Deeper leagues: pick him up immediately
Charlie Bell (4%)
Michael Redd is out for a few weeks and has been bothered by his recovery from knee surgery. This gives Bell the chance to start and post numbers. He’s flirted with value in the past, but never consistently rose to the occasion, and is three years removed from his career year. He’s a fairly average SG and posts numbers as such (points, sprinkle of boards/dimes, a steal and a trey). He might be worth it to some.
Shallow leagues: not worth it
12 team leagues: wait and see, probably not enough value.
Deeper leagues: pick him up if you have somebody that didn’t pan out
Taj Gibson (4%)
Tyrus Thomas is out for 4-6 weeks. Taj has played fairly well in the past few games and the preseason and can provide some points, boards, and light hustle. Taj was starting to get run even before the TyThomas injury, so expect Taj to slide right in. The Bulls can still use Deng to play small or Noah/Brad to play big, so Taj may not play all situations, but will still get some decent production.
Shallow leagues: wait and see, probably not enough value.
12 team leagues: pick him up if you have somebody that didn’t pan out
Deeper leagues: pick him up immediately
Full-Court Fantasy: Sell High, Buy Low
Robert Fung is an avid basketball fan, a 10+ year fantasy NBA veteran, and the Basketball Team Lead on Rotokingdom.net. Chicago born and raised, he grew up with the Michael Jordan era and continues to root for the Bulls.
The team that you draft is almost never the team that you finish the season with, as long as you are an active manager. You will add/drop players, because a more valuable player may fall on the wire or may break out due to injuries or flat-out beating an incumbent. You may also make trades. You can improve your team by making even value trades, or you could improve your team even more by trading players at max value and taking on players that increase in value.
Use the trading block to post players of yours that you want to trade and send feelers with notes to other managers. The point of the feeler is to open the lines of communication, so send something that would be a little bit of a reach and work from there. The point of the trading game is to get the most you can and give up the least that the other manager will accept. With that being said, here are some ideas for players to sell high and buy low.
Sell High
Lamar Odom –
Through 2 games, he’s averaged 13-10-6-steal-2 blocks-trey on 46% FG shooting, rounding up the boards/blocks. Fantastic all-around play with only deficiencies in FT% and TOs. One of the main reasons why he’s doing so well is because he’s played 39 mpg while Pau Gasol is sitting on the bench in a suit. Once Pau returns, LO goes to the bench and LO’s stats will drop. We’re talking 10-6-3-steal-block (rounding up pts/assists) off the bench last year, without Artest in the lineup. Gasol is questionable for Tues/Wed, but should return within the next week or two, so your window is limited.
Andray Blatche –
Blatche’s put up 21-6-steal-block on 72/78 shooting. Not bad for somebody that was likely undrafted in most leagues. He is only 51% owned in Yahoo leagues so he’s relatively quiet, but it’s hard to miss those numbers. He’s getting heavy minutes (low 30s) off the bench while Antawn Jamison is out through most of November. Once his FG% comes back down to earth, his career avg of 47% at 13 FGA/gm gives him about 12 ppg (maybe 14 with FTs). With average boards/steals/blocks, his value will drop. Then, once Jamison is healthy, Blatche’s minutes will drop by at least 33% and he’ll only be worth a roster spot in deep leagues.
Aaron Brooks –
HOU has been a big surprise this year, and Brooks is a major contributor to their success. He’ll be the focal point of the offense, but can’t keep this pace up, even with 39 mpg. He was respectable as a starter in 35 games last year, posting 13-4-2-steal-2 treys, but his 22-8-3-steal-2 treys and 49% FG shooting is just too good to believe. He has a career average of 41% FG shooting, with 42% in NCAA play. He also never averaged more than 4.6 apg in the NBA or NCAA. He’ll be a good PG3, but he’s playing like a great PG1 right now.
Jermaine O’Neal –
JON was a 2nd rounder in his prime, with lines of 20-10-2 blocks, but years of injuries have dropped him off the radar. He worked out with Tim Grover this past summer, so it’s possible that he pushes through the year at his current pace of 22-12, but, if you can get somebody to take him for full value now, ship him off and let the other team deal with the risk. At his very best, he’ll put up 22-12 with 2 blocks, but he’s shooting 20% above his career FG% already and who knows how low he can fall.
Lesser Sell Highs –
Josh Smith, Danilo Gallinari, Channing Frye, Trevor Ariza, Marc Gasol, Chris Kaman, Grant Hill
Buy Low
Vince Carter –
Carter’s playing a career low in mpg (20 mpg) and it shows in his stats (career lows in FGA, boards, steals, and points). The first game of the season was a blowout (up 29 going into the 4th) and the second game of the season he sprained his ankle. He’s an explosive all-star who is replacing a non-all-star that shot 3 more FGA/gm (Turkoglu, 13 FGA/gm). It’s hard to imagine Vinsanity not getting an increase across the board throughout the season. You may not be able to buy VC at his current numbers, but he should be at a discounted rate, and even more if you can convince the current manager that the change in scenery is no good for VC.
Michael Redd –
Redd is recovering from off-season surgery, but MIL needs a scorer, Redd has put up solid scoring since his 3rd year, and Redd’s current FG% is 10 below his career average. Also, Redd is taking at least 4 FGA and 2 FTA less than normal and playing at least 5 mpg less than normal. Outside of his 2.5 spg and 1.5 3pg, his numbers look very plain. Shop for him and wait for his return to status as MIL’s #1.
Jason Kidd –
The boards, dimes, and steals are there, but the (few) points and treys are not. Points are usually not the reason you like Kidd, but a measly 3 ppg can still get you a discount. He’s still taking a good number of 3s, but just not connecting yet. Kidd, a 34% career trey shooter, has never had a season where he has not come close to averaging at least one 3pg. Once he bumps that stat up, he’ll be the player the other manager wanted on draft day. Until then, he’s Brevin Knight (a fairly valuable bench player, but no better than that) with some rebounds.
Derrick Rose –
Rose has played against two of the best defenses and two of the best point guards in the league. In addition, BOS blew CHI out of the building the last game, so Rose got less minutes. He took more FGA tonight, but had abysmal FG%. The whole team has shot poorly as a matter of fact, so that’s a good reason for the assists to be lacking. The Bulls will get better, and so will Rose. The team is just trying to figure out how to play with Deng healthy and Gordon gone. Rose is only a sophomore, so some managers might be scared that last year was a bit of a fluke. Don’t be one of them.
More Risky Buy Lows (mostly due to injuries or new and unpredictable situations) –
Elton Brand, Al Jefferson, Caron Butler, Andre Miller, Amare Stoudemire, Stephen Jackson
Top 9 Fantasy Busts for 2010
Robert Fung is an avid basketball fan, a 10+ year fantasy NBA veteran, and the Basketball Team Lead on Rotokingdom.net. Chicago born and raised, he grew up with the Michael Jordan era and continues to root for the Bulls.
Bust is generally a pretty harsh term for a player that hasn’t capitalized on their potential. In the draft context, I’ll use the term to describe a player that overachieved last year and could get drafted too high this year when their stats fall back down. If you draft them based on last year’s numbers, you may get a bad surprise this year.
Troy Murphy -
Murphy’s pretty good. He has career averages near 10-10 with a steal and trey, and has had a few years where he’s been a double double beast, which have allowed him to routinely post top 100 value. Last year, he stepped up his game even more, finishing with an 8th overall rank in value by setting career highs in FG%, 3PTM 3PTA and 3PT%, rebounds, assists, tying a career high in steals, posting 2nd highest in points and FT%, while maintaining good TOs and decent blocks. Brilliant year for him. Unfortunately, last year Indiana was missing a key part of their scoring and ball movement depth (Mike Dunleavy). Dunleavy will return this year, is reportedly well ahead of schedule and may even be ready by training camp. Dunleavy could take away a shot or few. Also, Indiana has an up and coming big man, Roy Hibbert, fresh off his rookie season, when he averaged per 30 min averages of about 14-7. If Hibbert gets the time, that could cut down on Murphy’s rebounding and scoring. Murphy will post top 75 numbers and probably top 50 numbers, but most likely won’t be worth that 2nd or 3rd round pick.
Rasheed Wallace -
Sheed generally posts top 50 value due to consistent contributions in the three-cat 3s/steals/blocks club as well as good rebounding averages and great TOs. Unfortunately, he’s decided to sign with Boston to try to get another ring. While Boston could utilize him as a starter, Boston has had great success with their core and most likely won’t disrupt that chemistry. Boston could play Sheed at both the 4 and 5, giving KG and Perkins some very much needed rest, but Big Baby (Glen Davis) just resigned and got 21 mpg last year. So, it might be tough for Sheed to get playing time, and it will certainly be tough for him to get his touches behind the Celts big 3.
OJ Mayo -
It’s a shame to put OJ on this list after rookie season averages of about 18-4-3-2 treys-steal, but he probably won’t improve on those numbers and it isn’t even his fault. Memphis first signed Zach Randolph, a perennial 20-10 player for the last 6 years. Unfortunately, it takes ZBo about 17 FGA to score 20 points. Last year’s starting and backup PF averaged a combined 14 FGA. Also, ZBo’s not known to pass, and has made the highlight reel with fancy (and uncoordinated and poorly executed) dribbling and deep range shooting. Memphis then signed Allen Iverson, a scoring point guard, who not only will likely be OJs backup and take valuable playing time away, but also has a career average of 22 FGA/gm and averaged about 14 FGA/gm at his lowest (last year). Take a young, explosive, sometimes even selfish, scorer that could have had great mid-draft value, and throw him in with two other ballhogs, and you end up stripping away most of that scoring value.
Mike Bibby -
While Bibby has led Atlanta to playoff berths, his own value has declined since his prime. His scoring averages have been down the past two years, and his APG dropped last year. That’s not too bad, except for the fact that Atlanta just brought in a 20 ppg combo guard, Jamal Crawford, as his backup and drafted a point guard in the mid first round. Bibby provides pretty good assists and rebounds, but his main value comes from his scoring, especially from the perimeter, which unfortunately is where JCraw loves to play as well. Bibby is also 31, so it’s pretty clear that his best days are past. He won’t be a big bust, but he’s no longer an easy mid-draft pick.
Ben Gordon -
Gordon has been pretty clutch for Chitown, but has taken his game to Detroit, where he’ll likely backup ex-all-star SG, Rip Hamilton. BG is no stranger to the bench, but has averaged 30+ mpg the last 4 years. Detroit isn’t particularly deep, especially in the backcourt, but they’ll need to juggle their roster a bit to give BG 30, and BG poses a height and defensive liability that Detroit cannot compensate for. BG won’t be a complete bust, but I don’t see him averaging north of 20 ppg, which probably drops him just outside the top 100.
Richard Jefferson -
RJ’s had a great career, and he’s just 29. His overall value hasn’t peaked that high, because his hustle stats and 3s usually aren’t all that good, but he has provided good points, boards, assists, and percentages. RJ was moved to a very deep and veteran team hoping to regain their western conference dominance. Unfortunately for us, that means RJ is probably their 3rd or 4th offensive option. San Antonio also brought in a veteran post player that can rebound efficiently, so RJ’s rebounding average likely won’t be that high. If anything, RJ’s FG% may improve, because the defense will be so spread, but RJ still will struggle to post top 100 value.
Brad Miller -
Miller is another solid #1/2 center with great percentages, good boards and great big man assists. He had a great season a few years back, but was traded to Chicago midway through last year. In Chicago, Miller was demoted to a bench role as Chitown expects Joakim Noah to be their future stud center. It’s taken Noah over a year, but he finally had a coming out party in the playoffs and may be ready for more playing time. As a result of Noah’s play and the coach’s confidence in him, Miller’s minutes declined from 31.5 before the break, to 27.5 post-ASB, to 26.5 in the postseason (where the Bulls played multiple OT games). At the ripe age of 33, Miller is starting to fade away in fantasyland.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas -
Ilgauskas has been a solid #1/2 center with great percentages and good boards/blocks for over a decade now. He’s 34 now, and Cleveland is trying to keep him running for a championship, so they’ve been cutting back on his minutes. With the Shaq signing this summer, Z will get his minutes cut even more. This might be the first year in awhile that Z’s value drops out of the double digits and may even be the first year that you’ll see him on the waiver wire to start the season barring injury. Unfortunately for Z, a draft pick after 150 is justified.
Randy Foye -
Foye finally made his presence felt with a 16-4-3-steal-1.6 trey line last year, but was dealt this past summer to either back up one of the league’s most electrifying and elite PGs (Gilbert Arenas, aka Agent Zero, aka Hibachi, etc) or to compete for the starting SG job with the boring incumbent DeShawn Stevenson, the young and promising Nick Young, or even his own ex-Minny teammate, Mike Miller. Stevenson and Young have the team history, playbook, and reputation already, Mike Miller has the outside shooting, and Arenas already plays a combo guard like Foye. So, it’s more likely that Foye comes off the bench, which kills his value completely, as a healthy Agent Zero commands nearly 40 mpg. There’s an outside chance that Agent Zero isn’t healthy, but he is working out with one of the league’s most reputable miracle-workers, and offseason reports from coaching staff, other star players (e.g. Lebron James), and Arenas himself say that he’s ready and better than ever.
Full-Court Fantasy: Top Breakout Players
Robert Fung is an avid basketball fan, a 10+ year fantasy NBA veteran, and the Basketball Team Lead on Rotokingdom.net. Chicago born and raised, he grew up with the Michael Jordan era and continues to root for the Bulls.
You can go through your draft and try to get last year’s production/stats, or you can target players that will improve. Here are some potential breakout players that were on fantasy rosters for much of last season, but will have even more value next season.
Devin Harris -
Harris had a huge breakout following the trade from DAL, and played his first full season as the starting NJN floor general last year. His playing time increased, and so did his points, 3s, assists, steals, and even rebounds. Trading RJ to MIL also opened up a lot of the offense to Harris, as well, and he consequently saw an increase in 3 FGA/gm, 4 FTA/gm and 5 ppg. Now that NJN has traded away all-star Vince Carter, Harris will be fully strapped into the driver’s seat. He will lead the team in at least ppg, apg, and spg, and his rise to stardom will continue.
Mike Conley -
Conley has been stuck in a timeshare since he was drafted. MEM finally traded away Lowry mid-season last year, and Conley responded by adding +5.5 pts, +2 asst, +0.5 reb, +0.9 stl, +trey, +4/4%, +9 min to his numbers. He was all set to take on full-time starter’s responsibilities, but MEM went and signed ex-all-star Allen Iverson. AI will clearly be the backup to both backcourt positions, so Conley will still see an increase in mpg from last season’s average, but Conley is no longer a clear lock for 36+ mpg. Also, AI (and other new acquisition Zach Randolph) likes to get his shot off and dominate the ball. So, an increase in Conley’s numbers is expected, maybe not much better than his post-ASB numbers, but still much better than any other season.
Spencer Hawes -
Hawes basically doubled everything from his rookie year to his soph year. Also, post-ASB, he posted increases of +4 pts, +2 reb, +1 asst, +7 FG%, +6 min. He has literally no competition for the middle, as the next best candidate (Jason Thompson) is probably their starting PF. Hawes has good potential for an all-around line that is only held back by his FT%. His scoring may not make as big a jump, because SAC’s new rookie, Tyreke Evans, is expected to share the scoring load. However, look for Hawes to edge closer to the steal-block-trey club with nearly a double double.
JR Smith -
One of JR Smith’s biggest faults is his ego and immaturity. That still needs some work. He’ll be in a better situation next year, and, as long as he keeps his head in check, he could be great. DEN lost Dahntay Jones, who was the starter and sucked up 18 mpg, as well as fellow perimeter swingman, Linas Kleiza, who was a reserve but got 22 mpg (to be fair, some of that time was at SF). DEN did bring in Arron Afflalo, who is a Bruin with untapped potential, but Afflalo definitely won’t get 40 mpg. So, JR will at least see his playing time increase, and is the frontrunner for the starting spot, pending suspension. In 18 starter games, he averaged +3 pts, +1.3 reb, +0.6 asst, +0.4 stl, +9 min.
Joakim Noah -
Noah is also a young kid ready to make his mark. His mpg went up from 21 pre-ASB to 29 post-ASB to 38 during the playoffs. The Bulls did play lots of OT games in the playoffs, but Noah decisively took the job from Brad Miller. Also, even though the Bulls made some noise in the first round, they’re still gathering experience for later playoff runs and are likely to continue developing their young talent, which includes Noah. Nobody else comes close to 8 rpg, so expect Noah to get the lion’s share of rebounds. He could be a good source of blocks, and even a handful of points or close to a double double.
Rodney Stuckey -
Chauncey Billups, a solid playmaker, was traded for Allen Iverson, a solid scoring combo guard. This gave Stuckey the starting point guard gig. Now, Allen Iverson has left town, and DET brought in Ben Gordon, who is clearly a SG and not a PG, which leaves only Will Bynum, who has only commanded 14 mpg at most. In March, Iverson was on the bench, and Stuckey saw an increase of 3-5 mpg and added to his stats. In April, Stuckey’s mpg went back down, but they didn’t really have as much to play for and got swept in the first round of the playoffs. Stuckey has proven he can score (17 ppg in JAN) and pass (6 apg in DEC), but he just needs to put it all together. Stuckey is the future leader of the team, and DET is giving him plenty of chances in a balanced offense with less veteran hand-holding.
Aaron Brooks -
Brooks now has 2 rounds of playoff experience, and half a year of starter’s experience. He’s shown decent potential with 13-4-2-steal-2 trey in 35 games starting last year. This year, he’ll have the reigns from the get-go, and even more so with both all-stars Yao and TMac in street clothes. TMac may return early and will return sometime this year, but not before Brooks gets a chance to run the show. Once Brooks gets confidence under his legs, he could take off (see the 34 point playoff explosion capping off 4 games of 20+ scoring). He isn’t a great playmaker, but he can hit from the perimeter, can get to the line, and will most certainly have at least 3-5 more FGA/gm.
Luis Scola -
Scola is, arguably, the second best active Rocket. He had a great 20-7 run in the FIBA championships, and there’s no depth and no proven talent in the Rockets frontcourt. Scola isn’t a great rebounder, but he’s still pretty good with about 12 boards per 36 min. Add in the offensive ability of Scola and offensive inability of much of the rest of the roster, and this could be the double double year we were looking for last year. To be fair, he did have a nice increase in points and boards from 2 years ago, but he may still have more to showcase. He’s not great on the defensive end, but he could be a poor man’s Boozer.
